NBA is living large

The Finals kicked off yesterday in style. What was supposed to be a boring, one-sided matchup turned into one of the craziest overtime thriller in recent memory. Warriors won, matching most people's expectations including mine, but the game went nothing like I had expected. My pick was and still is Dubs in 5, maybe 6 if they sleep walk through the series, but the way LeBron showed up and hooped yesterday, you almost have to expect a 6 or 7 game series. He dropped a super efficient 51 and made one of the best defenses in the league look absolutely helpless and clueless. Andre Iguodala was not playing, but the defense can't be this soft without him. Like somebody tweeted yesterday, if he makes so much of a difference to this loaded team, we are either over-estimating the big-4 or underestimating Iggy. Good point! I think we are under-estimating Iggy. Plus, LeBron was on fire yesterday. Even Iggy might not have made much of a difference.

Durant spent a lot of time defending LeBron and was largely ineffective. The Dubs seemed to want to fight through screens and stick with the primary defender on LeBron when he tried to switch Curry on to him. This is different from the Houston series and Harden where you just can't give anybody any daylight because of the conscience-free three point shooting. You can afford to switch back on LeBron and give some opening to the other Cavs. I felt like they did that a lot more in the first half, but Durant didn't fight through the screens and gave up easy in the second. Durant is so talented that he ended up with decent numbers at the end, but he played a mediocre game at best. Aside from the zero-impact defense on LeBron, he was also the guy who was pushed aside by J.R.Smth of all people on that rebound on the missed free throw at the end. Durant can't let that happen. He was abused on the boards in game 7 against the Rockets as well. Anyways, Curry was a lot better and Dubs won with a B+ to A- performance. They were not horrible, but they can be better.

The story of the game was really LeBron. He was just amazing and his legend is growing with every game in these playoffs. At age 33, he is doing more to embellish his hall of fame resume than he did at age 28 or 29 when his legs were a lot younger and his resume a lot lighter. He has carried these under-staffed Cavs to the Finals and in game 1, almost got them a 1-0 series lead. At the end of the day he couldn't and the story became the reversed foul call, missed George Hill free throw, and JR's stupidity. These plays have been rehashed non-stop for the last 24 hours and I will spare you the details, but my take in a nutshell is as follows. They got the call reversal right. You can question the motive for the review, but the result of the review was correct as confirmed by the league today as well. The missed FT happens. Durant actually missed 3 of his first 4 FTs in game 7 of WCF. Pressure and stress spares no one and Hill became the latest victim. J.R.Smith is just as much a strength as a liability and I am not surprised he lost track of the score. Also, who knows if JR's put-back or even a hypothetical LeBron James shot goes in if thats how things played out.

At the end of the day, JR Smith became the goat and saved both Hill ad Durant from some embarrassing questions. The Dubs won in OT, but they need to do something about the LeBron James problem, I can't wait for game 2 to see what both sides do - Dubs from a defensive strategy perspective and Cavs from just the mental perspective of recovering from that rough ending in game 1. It's been an interesting playoffs for the Golden State Warriors. They were never threatened in the playoffs last year, but they just came out of a 7-game fist-fight against the Rockets who gave them all they can handle and then some. Chris Paul stole both game 4 and 5 to put the Dubs in a major hole. He then got hurt and many people are convinced that this changed the series and was a lucky break for the Warriors. It probably was and maybe CP3's presence in game 7 would have made sure the Rockets didn't completely implode in the second half. CP3 gave that team a lot of toughness and "clutchenss" in games 4 and 5.

The Dubs were missing Iggy since game 3, but people don't give as much importance to him as CP3 because the Dubs have 4 stars larger than Iggy while CP3 is the second best player for the Rockets and probably their best player in the clutch given Harden's troubles as a closer. So, it is fair to say that if both played, advantage goes to the Rockets in game 7. But, thats only correct for game 7. If both played throughout the series, I totally agree with Kerr that the Warriors win game 4 and/or 5. Both were close games with CP3 playing decent for the Rockets and Iggy would have made enough of a difference in the 4th quarter to win it for the Dubs. The series would probably have wrapped up in 5 or 6 rendering game 7 irrelevant. I would like to sympathize with CP3 and Rockets for that injury, but you almost could see it coming from a mile.

I don't want to blame CP3 for being injury prone, but he just is. I do blame Harden and Mike D'Antoni for sure. Harden did no favors to CP3 by disappearing in most of the 4th quarters. CP3 had to carry a lot of the load in the second half of that game 5 when he pulled up lame and got injured. Of course, D'Dantoni still doesn't play his bench, thus killing both his superstars. So, not sure how much tears we can shed for the Rockets and this injury. We can all however shed collective tears for all of us NBA fans since these injuries reduced the series to a bunch of "what ifs." It was great fun, but the injuries made it a different series for sure. It was a cruel joke by the Basketball gods on both us and CP3. Rockets and CP3 made life difficult for the Dubs while it lasted, but the Dubs looked like they were always going to win the series anyways.

Dubs struggled in two consecutive games - 4 & 5, in crunch time to get baskets. The Rockets' defensive strategy had a lot to do with that. The Dubs defense was good too, but the offense betrayed them at times. It was not humming the entire series, but they especially looked confused in the closing minutes. As great as the Dubs' big 4 are, I started trusting the Rockets' Big 2 and even Eric Gordon more than the Warriors studs if you absolutely had to get a basket or two in the last minute of a game. Their is a simplicity, clarity, and focus to the Rockets' offense. Isolate Harden or Chris Paul or Eric Gordon, let them go to work, and live with their decision - shoot a 3, drive, or kick it out to one of the other shooters. It may be ugly and boring, but is not complex or confusing. And it worked just enough in that series to help them get to 7 games.

I don't like cliches, but the Dubs offense on the other hand did seem to lack an identity, at least in that series against that D. They almost have a problem of excess. They have 4 of the top 15 players in the league and are often torn between 3 ways to run their offense. They can rely on their basic ball movement and player movement offense, or iso Durant and let him go 1-on-1, or have Curry shoot or dribble-drive. There is no one thing they can hang their hat on and that sometimes causes some identity issues at the end of games. Rockets seemed to make them pick the least preferable of these options all series long. They defended the 3-point line and let Durant ISO to his heart's content. The Dubs had an issue with that as it took others out of the offense. Finally, Kerr had to coach and was able to unleash the Splash brothers just enough in games 6 and 7 to to earn a hard-fought victory. The conference finals were both great and now, lets see if the Finals can measure up to it when it comes to quality and competition.

First Four

And then there were 4. NBA playoffs are fun, but it's probably the most predictable of the 3 major leagues. NFL is all about parity - except for the Patriots in the AFC. You can't usually guess who is going to be a true contender from year to year. MLB is fairly predictable with respect to which teams can and will be good, but once in the playoffs, pitching is going to decide everything and you are at the mercy of those starting pitchers on both sides. That introduces enough variance. NBA with it's 7-game playoff series after a 82-game regular season is the most consistent and predictable. We had penciled in the Warriors and the Cavs to make the conference finals on day 1 - actually even the NBA finals. We expected the Celtics to get to the final-4, but then downgraded them when Gordon Hayward got hurt, upgraded them when the Kyrie-led Celtics kept winning, and downgraded them again when Kyrie got hurt. Celtics made it this far anyways. The Rockets have looked ready for this round since the beginning of the season once they showed us Paul and Harden can ball together and Kwahi decided he is not interested in balling at all this season for the Spurs.

Thus we got our conference finalists after a fun season and a solid playoff through the first 2 rounds.  No real upsets or shockers so far. I guess the Cavs technically upset the Raptors, but who really thought the Raptors were going to beat LeBron James. I thought the Raptors will drag this to 6 or 7, but LeBron is so far into their collective heads that they got swept. Raptors have a real problem if Skip Bayless says they will get swept in his usual, stupid fashion to maximize shock-value and the Raps go out and make Skip Bayless right. He rarely is. To be fair to the Raptors, LeBron hit some crazy game-winners and became more confident and unstoppable as the series went along. Nonetheless they had to change something after this debacle. The easiest move was to fire the coach and they did that. They might have fired the eventual Coach of the Year, but Dwane Casey had to go. He had a good 7-year run in the regular season, but the playoff success eluded him. Hope he gets another shot somewhere else. The Celtics will start against the Cavs tomorrow in Boston instead of the Raps hosting the ECF game 1. Celts dispatched the talented and inexperienced 76'ers in 5 games.

The way LeBron is playing right now, it's just impossible to stop him or pick against him. I expect the Celts and President Stevens to make this a long, interesting series, but the King survives in 6 games for a date in his 8th straight NBA finals. The Cavs are not that good a team, but LeBron makes them great! After 2 rounds of playoffs and multiple lineups, they have found a combination that plays well and are actually very effective the last few games. Only thing better than LeBron is LeBron with some help and he might have that in Korver, Love, and others. Celtics better show up with all their focus and energy if they want to stop the King. The story of this season though has been the Rockets-V-Warriors that we have all been waiting for, We finally get it in the WCF. The Rockets have the better record and home court. They are 50-5 when CP3, Harden, and Clint Capela have all played. That's just amazing! This coupled with the fact that the Dubs have looked less than formidable during stretches of this season makes this a fascinating series. The Warriors do not look vulnerable anymore after the first 2 rounds of the playoffs, but this is expected to be a challenging series anyways.

This may be the toughest series yet for the Dubs during the Kerr era and the world will be watching. They did lose to the Cavs in the Finals in 2016 and had a brutal 7-game WCF against Durant and the OKC Thunder. They would have lost that game 7 without a magical 41-point performance from Klay. With all that said, they did go into both those series as the prohibitive favorites whereas this Rockets series has much more intrigue going in with a confident Rockets team thinking they can beat the Dubs. The conventional wisdom even during the last couple of years was that the Rockets have a punchers chance because they jack up so many threes and a hot day at the office for them can beat anybody. That combined with Capela's development and defense to go with CP3's hot playoff run the last 2 weeks would be my concern if I were a Dubs fan. Also, the Warriors don't have the 3-point depth of yesteryears. They have the big-3 and their top of the World marksmanship from distance, but the depth is missing. Barbosa, Speights, and Clark are not walking through that door anymore. They have quality over quantity and believe it or not, their depth is their 5 centers, not wing shooters.

Contrary to what most fans probably assume, Rockets are not a fast-paced team that Coach D'Antoni is known for and the Warriors are not a three-point shooting juggernaut. The Rockets are actually one of the slowest teams in the league, but they do jack up more threes than anybody else with more than 50% of their shots coming from distance. The Dubs on the other hand have dropped down the three point attempts list this season, but like to play fast-paced. They actually shoot just 2 less 3s per game this season compared to 2015, but the Rockets shoot 12 more 3s per game now than they did in 2015! Thats amazing and has become a trend across the league pushing the Dubs from the most 3-point attempting team in 2015 to 16th most in the league this year. All of this makes this series a very interesting clash of styles given the Warriors' ball-movement offense and the Rockets' isolation based offense. Game 1 is going to be crucial in this one more than your average series. I agree with Chuck that it's important for the Rockets to win and gain more confidence. Dubs can afford to lose on the road, but us fans will learn a lot about this series on Monday either way.

Whats the net-net of it all? I expect a focussed, sharp, playoff-Warriors to show up on both ends of the floor. Thats still the best show and the most formidable force in the NBA. Their defense survives and expect them to take this series in 6.

Playoff fever in the NBA

The NBA playoffs are in full-flow. Round one is in the books. Ironically, the only game remaining in round 1 as I write this is between the Cavs and the Pacers. It obviously features LeBron James, who has almost always breezed through the first round matchups. Not this year, not with this sub-par roster that he is running with. Pacers have given the Cavs all they can handle and would have probably won this thing already if they had home court. But they don't and they have to now go into Cleveland and beat LeBron James. Probably won't happen despite this Cavs team being the worst team LeBron has had since his first stint in Cleveland. He has has great talent around him in Miami and the last 3 years in Cleveland, but now he has to carry them to the second round all by himself. He will get it done tomorrow, but how far can he carry them? He is getting tired late in game and doesn't play great defense consistently or in transition. You can't even blame him. As much as he looks like an alien at times on the basketball court, he is only human and is in his 15th year. It's a mystery he is putting up these amazing numbers, but something's gotta give and this is not sustainable. First things first though for the Cavs. They have to win game 7.

These playoffs have been great so far. It's been very competitive with many interesting storylines. LeBron's buzzer-beater in game 5 was amazing.  We have also seen a lot of pushing and shoving and mini-skirmishes as you can clearly see how the intensity and hatred increases as the series goes into games 3, 4, and later. Guys see the same guys defending them and they get sick of each other sooner than later. These series starts gently and ramps up in intensity slowly, but surely. Three of the four Eastern conference round 1 series were long ones. That only confirmed what we all knew already that the East is wide-open wth no clear favorites. Philadelphia 76'ers are the trendy pick and rightfully so. They beat the Heat 4-1, the shortest round 1 series in the East. That's pretty impressive considering the Miami Heat are the kind of well-coached, defensive-minded, tough team that can surprise an unsuspecting higher seed and drag them through a long series. The Sixers didn't let that happen and dispatched the Heat early via an intensely contested gentleman's sweep. Now they get to meet the Celtics and they have to be the favorites. Boston has enough talent to win maybe one game and coach Stevens is worth another win.  I'd say the Sixers win this one in 6. The Raptors will face the winner of Cavs-Pacers and they will have their hands full either way. Cavs will beat them in 7 if thats the matchup. If it's the Pacers, Raptors in 7. I did expect the Raptors to go 7 games even against the Wizards, but they wrapped it up in 6  beating my projections by one game much like the Sixers. I did predict correctly that both the Celtics and Cavs series to go seven. I picked the Bucks to get it done, but hedged my bet on that one a bit. So, am not really surprised by a Celtics win. Hoping the Cavs prove me right tomorrow.

In the West, both the Warriors and the Rockets finished their gentleman's sweep. Jazz put the Thunder out of their misery in 6, but lost Rubio to a injury for a few days. That could be costly for them in the next round. I expected the Jazz to be a pain for the Rockets. They have size, a solid home crowd, and Donovan Mitchell to give the Rockets all they can handle. That series might go 7. I pick the Rockets to win and thats only because Rubio is expected to be out for 10 days. I believe the right matchup can derail this Houston team regardless of the round though they did win the first round series a game sooner than I had projected. Both the Jazz and Dubs made me look great by making my projections come true in the first round. The team that made all of us look bad were the Pelicans. I said the Blazers will win in 6, but that series has been the only sweep in these playoffs so far. And, it's the lower seededed Pelican who swept the Blazers out of the playoffs. Great matchup for the pelicans in that one and I immediately thought they won't be able to have that good a time against the Dubs. Matchups are completely different in this one. This was proven today in game 1 as the Dubs kicked off round 2 by kicking the Pelicans rear-end all over Oakland. Dubs should take this series in 6, maybe even 5 if Curry gets cooking soon.

Intriguing Spring

The NCAA tournament is now in the books. We will all miss sister Jean, but won't miss the mediocre Final 4 games on the court. Villanova was too good for the Michigan team in the Finals and even for Kansas in the semis which made the marquee games boring to watch. Sister Jean carried the tournament all by herself though the earlier rounds were pretty interesting including a never-before-seen 16 over 1 upset. The tournament is always fun mostly because of the unknown and the crazy upsets, but at the end of three weeks, it's always the so-called blue bloods that win it all. The only drama is which higher seed will win. For all the hype and love around upsets and Cinderella's, it's Kansas or Duke or North Carolina or Villanova or Kentucky or Michigan State winning it all. Couple of them will lose in the first weekend, couple more in the second weekend and one of them will win it all. What makes it fun I guess is, we just don't know which ones from the list falls in which bucket each year.

Villanova this year adopted the NBA's three-point revolution and Steph Curry'ed their way to a championship. They killed Kansas in the semis with 18 threes to win it going away. It has been fascinating to watch the spread of the 3-ball in the NBA and looks like the NCAA is following in their footsteps now. The Steph Curry effect on the younger generation is only going to make this better or worse, depending on your perspective, at all levels of basketball. Curry is the ultimate symbol of the 3-ball, though many teams including our 7-seconds or less Suns, the Stan Van Gundy Orlando Magic, and the current era of Daryl Morey Rockets have all accelerated the 3-ball revolution to different levels. But Curry is the singular star who is inspiring a generation of shooters and as different as the game looks today, it's going to look very different in another 10 years. I am curious to see where the 3-ball takes us, especially the college basketball, as I do expect a course correction at some point.

Speaking of Curry, he is currently MIA in the NBA and the Warriors are still inconsistently meandering into the playoffs even as the league is barreling towards what is shaping up as a crazy playoffs. The playoffs, especially in the West, has always been competitive the last few years, but the twist this year is, the teams from 4 to 10 are bunched up and we have no clue what the matchups are going to be even with just a few days left in the regular season. The Rockets are ahead of the Warriors by a bunch of games thanks to all the injuries the Dubs have suffered through the last few weeks. The guys for the Dubs are beginning to come back except for Curry and last week's win at OKC was impressive and as big a regular season statement as you can expect from a 2-time champion. Of course, they followed that up with 2 bad losses against the Pacers and the Pelicans. With all that said, they are still the team to beat. I expect the playoffs to be much tougher and tighter for them this year than last, but they have the talent to get this done.

The Rockets look scary good, but can they do it in the playoffs? Harden, Paul, and even coach D'Antoni are haunted by several playoff demons. It's only fair that the World is telling them "show me before I can trust you". We used to think the style the Rockets play is not a good fit for the playoffs, but those days are long gone. Almost all the teams play that style to some degree today and thats not a concern anymore. However, this cast of characters have to show us they can win the big one. No need to hand them the throne now. They will get enough opportunites with home court on their side to earn it. They may, but they have to go through the Warriors. The story is similar in the East. Cleveland Cavliers look headed to another finals despite all thier flaws and troubles. LeBron seeems energized by the new group around him and he is still the King. With injuries to Boston and Raptors continuing to lose to the Cavs, I wouldn't be shocked to see LeBron make it to his 8th straight finals. The Sixers maybe as big a challenge to them as any of the other teams in the LEast.

Spring also means the start of the baseball season. Giancarlo Stanton kicked off his Yankee career with a couple of majestic home runs, but is already getting booed in the Bronx. I guess thats his welcome to NYC moment. The real story of the season so far Shohei Ohtani, the Japanese Babe Ruth. That dude is legit and a great storyline for MLB to have in it's back-pocket, especially early in the season. At the end of the day, the Houston Astros will be the team to beat, not just this year, but for the foreseeable future. Houston may become the sports capital of the country if the Rockets dethrone the Dubs. The Astros have started the season in style. I don't have big hopes for either the DBacks in the NL or the A's in the AL, but I will be following them closely as there are some positive signs with both teams for the future. Not to be left behind the sports that are in-season, the NFL off-season has been active and interesting as always. It's not even draft day yet, but the league is making it's presence felt.

NFL Teams trade a tad bit more the last couple of years and that adds more juice to the league. The Pats traded away Brandin Cooks recently to the Rams for a first round pick. As always, nobody knows what the Hoodie is up to, but we know he is up to some good. The story this off-season has been the Rams. They are loading up. The new model in the NFL seems to be to load up when you have a stud QB in a cheap contract. When you draft a QB and he turns out good, you have him on the cheap for a few years while he is on his rookie contract. It's smart to go for the kill right then and use that cap room to load up on talent instead of waiting for the QB to mature and get better. Don't wait because, once that QB becomes a free agent, you have to dedicate a huge portion of the cap to him. It becomes harder to build an awesome team around him. Seattle with a cheap Russell Wilson back in the day and Philly last year with a cheap Carson Wentz were both hugely successful examples of that strategy.

Rams are trying the same strategy in 2018 with a decent, but cheap Jared Goff at QB and a playoff caliber team. By adding Ndamikan Suh, Aaquib Talib, Marcus Peters, and Brandin Cooks, Rams are pretty much the early super bowl favorite. It's also smart on their part to set themselves up with bright stars like that for the new stadium in LA, a city where star power matters more than anywhere else. The one big story left now before the draft is Odell Beckham Jr. There are rumors that the Pats will go after OBJ with those draft picks. I doubt that. There are also some rumors that the Niners want OBJ. That is more believable given that they are locked in an amazing arms race with the Rams that the Rams are clearly winning. These two teams are both pretty hyped in the NFC West right now, but the Niners don't have the "cheap QB" advantage that the Rams have. Lets see if the handsomely rich and richly handsome Jimmy Geezus can elevate the niners to a place consistent with the off-season hype. Happy to note that Seattle is probably on the way down and sadly, so are my Arizona Cardinals.

NBA reforms

NBA is in full swing. It's pretty much the only sport in town since the Super Bowl and until baseball starts up. We are past the three-quarters point, though we are barely past the all-star break. The All-star break is only a half way point for the two teams that make it to the NBA finals in June. For the rest of the league, the season is more like three-quarters done by the break, especially with the season starting earlier this year. There has been many interesting storylines in the league including an All-star game which was more competitive and better played than usual. Not sure how and why the new format helped the competitive spirit, but it seemed to have done the trick. I think it's more because of the guys putting in better defensive effort after all the criticism last year and also probably after personal requests from the Commish himself and the league office. It was a better watch than usual for sure.

The major story coming out of the break was about the league being open to playoff reforms including seeding the teams 1-16 across both the conferences. The other big idea is to introduce some sort of single elimination play-in games to lock up the last few playoff seeds. I have heard multiple versions of this with the more official version seems to suggest a play-in among seeds 7-10 in each conference for the final 2 spots. I actually like Bill Simmons' suggestion to have a play-in tournament for all of the bottom 8 teams in both conferences for that last spot. I think this will be the only approach that will curtail tanking, which is the other issue that the league wants to reform. A 7-thru-10 play-in will have zero impact on tanking. Not that a play-in tournament is the only way to fix tanking, but it will definitely be a fun way to fix it and a partial 7-10 play-in won't get it done.

Also, a full-fledged play-in tourney across 16 teams and over a week will be more fun and generate enough hype and attention. A 4-team play-in to me is neither here not there. It will be like the NCAA play-in games on Tues/Wed that nobody watches. I think a 16 team tourney will put butts on the seats. I know I will watch the Suns for sure and maybe most of the other games. The only concern with that is, it devalues the regular season. But the NBA regular season has very little integrity even now with all the tanking, back-to-back etc., I don't think a play-in tourney for all teams will make a huge difference to the regular season. It will however make the post-season more fun and can also help reduce the length of the regular season to 74 games or something like that. The league can eliminate back-to-backs and protect the players' health better with a shorter season. A week long play-in tournament can probably make up some of the lost revenue for the owners.

In short, a play-in tournament of some sort can add more excitement, reduce tanking, and reduce the length of the regular season. I think it's coming one way or the other. Commissioner Adam Silver is a revolutionary and will give this a shot soon. On the court, the major story is the race between the Rockets and the Warriors. They are pretty close and the Rockets are actually slightly ahead. This will obviously affect home court, but more importantly, the chatter about the Rockets being a true contender and a real challenger to the Warriors is picking steam. There was a lot of talk pre All-star game about how bad the Warriors looked. They have now won 4 straight since the break while the Rockets have won 14 straight. This will be an interesting race all the way to the Western Conference finals.

I can look at the Rockets in two ways. I can say the Rockets deserve all the respect since they have won a lot of these games to be at the top of the standings ahead of even the mighty Warriors. Rockets deserve respect and recognition for this. But, I can also say that a super-hot Rockets team has barely caught up with s supposedly struggling Warriors. So, who is the better team if they are both at 100%, which they will both be come playoff time as long as there are no injuries? The answer obviously are the Warriors since their upside seems to be much higher. Regardless of how people feel about the Rockets, they are finding it hard to pick them to win it all just because of the lack of playoff success of both James Harden and Chris Paul. So, the Rockets have to earn this one. Not many will pick them until they actually beat the Warriors and prove it. It should be one heck of a last 20+ games and the playoffs in the NBA.

NBA's super problem

NBA free agency is winding down after a nice run. There were some big moves as expected and it was an exciting couple of weeks. Even before the free agency kicked off, the Chris Paul trade to the Clippers and the Phil Jackson firing by the Knicks set the stage for a fun off-season stretch. Even as CP3 left, Blake Griffin decided to stay in LA and canceled a previously scheduled meeting with the Phoenix Suns. I was excited a bit for that meeting, but all things considered, I have to say the Suns dodged a bullet. Blake is too much of a injury risk to invest that kind of money. The unexpected Paul George trade to the Thunder was a nice wrinkle as even the 24X7 NBA twitter machine had no clue about that one. At the end of all of this, the best story of the off-season might have been Kevin Durant taking almost 10 mill less than market this year.

The Warriors were constantly on the off-season news though they didn't have to make any big changes. Just keeping their team together as expected was a big and expensive activity. They super-maxed Curry and brought back Livingston and David West. The guy who proved challenging was Andre Iguodala. He negotiated his way to what I would say is a very generous contract at his age. This meant KD ended up taking a lot less than market to help the team out. The Warriors could have paid 5 mill a year more than what they paid KD and gotten Paul Millsap who can do about half the things on the court that Durant can! While other guys like Millsap were getting overpaid, KD gave money back. Real nice of Durant and the Warrior machine showed once again that it's firing on all cylinders. They didn't stop there as they signed Nick Young and Omri Caspi and also brought back Zaza Pachulia.

Dubs have reloaded and only JaVale McGee is not in the fold yet among the players they realistically want back. They apparently went way over budget and may even be better than last year. Don't forget the 3.5 mill they paid to get the second round pick Jordan Bell in the draft though they didn't have a pick this year. It reminded me of the Suns during the Nash golden era when they were trading away all their draft picks to save a mill here or there. That right there might be the difference between true championship teams and the wannabes. Back then, I didn't realize how stupid the Suns were because we were all entranced by the Nash-Amare-Marion brilliance and thought we don't need no damn rookies! But rookies are cheap and the Warriors know how to use them right. The Dubs are definitely not holding back their wallet and if you are a Dubs fan, you should be very happy about how they run their team.

Gordon Hayward was one of the most prized possession this off-season and his move to Boston was not a major surprise. He did the free agency dance, but ended up where he has been rumored to be going for 2 years now. A big blow to the small market Utah team. LeBron James maybe the only true super star left in a small market team now and if the rumors are true about him wanting to leave Cleveland next year and goto the Lakers with Paul George and others, the league in general and Cleveland in particular will have a tough challenge in their hands. LeBron not actively recruiting free agents this year to the Cavs only strengthens the rumors. Cleveland has spent a lot of money and mortgaged a lot of their future to keep the King's court going. If he bails, they maybe in a worse situation now than in 2010 when he first left town, though the championship he won last year softens the blow for the fans.

NBA has a decent economic system. I rank their system way above the MLB's when it comes to competitive balance between big and small market teams. Of course, NFL is the best system in that regard with their hard salary cap etc., but you could argue NFL is a modern-day slavery involving millionaire athletes. NBA strikes the right balance between player prosperity, flexibility for the teams, and competitive balance. But, despite their best efforts, the teams are having issues retaining their stars. The NBA system always enabled teams to overpay for their own players via Bird rights etc. They expanded this even more in the last collective bargaining agreement, but the players are still leaving their teams to go wherever they want.

The players do seem to be leaving for the right reasons, but the small-market teams are hurting in the process. They seem to be leaving mostly to win and to play with other stars they like. LeBron started this trend, but everybody is trying to create their own super teams now. So, Harden recruits Chris Paul and CP3 joins him forfeiting a more lucrative contract with the Clips. Though the rumor is, Clips didn't want to pay CP3 that much and he decided that in that case, he will just go to Houston. Hayward gave up extra years and money too when he decided to move to Boston. I think 2 things are happening here. One, the off-court earnings for superstars like Durant are so high that they don't mind giving up some shekels for a ring and to play with friendly superstars. You would think this may actually be good news for small market teams.

While the big market teams definitely have more money, cachet, and sex appeal to bring multiple superstars together, the fact the stars are chasing winning and friends more than money should mean the market size matters less. If the small market team and their incumbent superstar play their cards well, they should be able to attract other stars to town to build a winning roster. They may have to go over the luxury tax threshold and thats a challenge for smaller markets, but it's doable. If this doesn't ever work in their favor and if smaller market teams are perennially hurting, I am sure the NBA will bring an even bigger hammer to the next collective bargaining negotiation and make sure the luxury tax penalties are even more severe and the players have to give up even more to leave their home markets to go to greener pastures. I trust the NBA process and they will figure this out.

Secondly, there may be a temporary phenomenon at work currently with the players. The sudden 35% jump in salary cap last year has thrown the salaries out of whack. This generation of stars were hoping to score a max contract in the range of 18 to 20 million a year until last season. Suddenly, their choices now are either 32 mill or 38 mill a year depending on where they want to play and I think even the players themselves are confused and overwhelmed by it. They think it's great to make 32 mill and win with a star teammate of their choice rather than mortgaging everything for a 38 mill contract. It's all huge money anyways. So, who cares if it's 5 or 6 million less! This might change with the new crop of stars starting with the Lonzo Ball era as these kids may expect to make those kinds of money and they may be less willing to give that up. Their reference point may be different. Thats just my theory. Lets see if I am right in a couple of years.

In short, the players seem to have all the leverage, especially the stars. They pick the city, the teammates, the contract, and the options on when to become a free agent again. In some ways, the teams have themselves to blame. They wanted shorter contracts and more flexibility. But this also means the players have more flexibility as well. It feels like every star is a free agent every other year. It's fun for the larger NBA fan base in the off-season, but stressful for the GMs and the home town fans who are worried about their stars. On top of that, this season, it's very clear that the Warriors have sent every team into a frenzy. Every team is looking to build a super team to challenge them and the stars are obliging.

It almost feels like fantasy basketball as teams like Houston go get CP3 and are still in the market for Carmelo. And they have committed almost 220 mill to Harden. Wonder how much more he can make if he plays defense too! Cavs want another piece, Boston wanted a couple of pieces, John Wall was trying to get Paul George to Washington, and there are already rumors of how LeBron will join Paul George with the Lakers and get John Wall to join him too next year. John Wall coincidentally is represented by LeBron's buddies at Klucth sports and Wall is refusing to sign the big money extension with the Wizards. The league is gone crazy in a good way and the Warriors are pushing them over the edge. LeBron started the super-team trend in 2010 and it's getting worse now.

NFL has always been the envy of every other league. They have the most fans with the most attention span throughout the year and other leagues were trying to mimic them and steal their ideas. But when it comes to free agency, NBA has got it figured out. Even NFL has to be jealous of all the hype and attention the NBA free agency generates. The calendar is not even well thought out because it was not that big a deal in the past. Most big signings happen during the July 4th long weekend, which is not ideal for the media hype cycle, but the whole free agency period still generates intense buzz for 2+ weeks. As stupid as "The Decision" show was in 2010, we have to thank that for what has now become the modern free agency. Nobody will do that kind of a show anymore, but the activities of player movement and super team creation in July have become a yearly trend now.

This is all good as the NBA keeps us busy and occupied during the dog days of summer. NBA is experiencing a definite renaissance and you could attribute it to many things including a new set of talented stars and a fan-friendly style played around the league. And don't forget the health and concussion problems hurting the NFL either. But it recently struck me when I was listening to Bill Simmons talk about this that we have had couple of historic NBA records and events happen just within the last 2 years. I personally thought I will never see a team win more than 72 games a season or anybody average a triple-double in a season. The Warriors last year and Russell Westbrook this year achieved those 2 amazing feats. Those things are real fun to watch and track and no wonder NBA is on a magical run. The attention it draws during free agency and it's summer league may be the best proof of it yet. Hope the good times keep rolling for the association!

Dubs Dynasty

The Warriors wrapped it up in 5 like I had predicted at the start of the finals. Me and 2 billion others called it the same way of course. It was really a no-contest at the end, but a riveting finals nonetheless. The reasons for the excitement were a few different things. The fact that there was history between these two teams meeting in the finals for the third straight year was a huge factor. Also, the monumental collapse of the Warriors last year gave folks false hope and anxiety depending on which side you were and made this contest look a lot closer than it really was. I have never seen a more nervous fanbase of a team that was up 3-0 and then 3-1 in a series returning home for a game 5 than this version of the Dubs fans. They were a lot more confident for game 7 last year than they were for game 5 this year! Last but not the least, the star power in the series and the great play by all of those stars made it worth the watch. Finals MVP Durant was unstoppable the entire series and so was MVK (Most Valuable King) James. Curry was great too, except for game 4, and so was Kyrie except for the first 2 games. We got to see basketball at a very high level. Hope we all appreciate that we saw LeBron become the first player to average a triple-double in the finals with a 33.6 points, 12 rebounds and 10 assists series. 

There was a lot of talk about how the quality of play and the level of talent on display in these finals were off the charts. It sure was in my eyes too. We know that just the Dubs roster features 4 of the top 15 talents in the NBA today, possibly 4 hall-of-famers. And then you add one of the best players in the history of the game in LeBron James and another 2 All-Stars on the Cavs roster, you got some serious heat on the floor. One of the major reasons why the games looked so impressive was the style of play in vogue in the NBA today. Both these teams like to go up and down the floor shooting 3's and they did shoot real well in this series. All of that made the talent in this series look way more impressive than the matchups I had seen in the last 15 years or so. However, there is also a definite recency bias in all our assessment as this is not the first rodeo for the NBA Finals, which always features top teams by design. For instance, how much more talent did we really see here compared to the Bird-Magic finals or the MJ-Magic or even the MJ-Malone/Stockton finals? Hard to quantify, but this one was fun. The other reason we focused more on the talent in this one was because of the recent emergence of the "super team" concept. The older "super teams" were mostly built organically and we didn't obsess about the collection of talent on the floor all that much.

It sure was a riveting trilogy and the TV ratings bear that out. But the domination of these 2 teams through the playoffs meant lot fewer games and lower eyeballs on the TV overall for the NBA and the TV channels. I totally expect a 4th installment of this rivalry next year. LeBron is going to push for some upgrade of his roster and we may have an even better matchup next year. Boston with all it's assets is the only serious threat to dethroning the King in the LEast, but even they may be a year away from things coming together nicely. Dubs-Cavs it is for 2018. The question is, how and what does the King force the Cavs to do this off-season? They don't have a lot of flexibility, but may be able to trade Kevin Love. It would be a mistake to trade him for somebody like Carmelo, but will be an upgrade if they can score Paul George. I bring up Melo only because LeBron is friends with him. So is CP3. But I won't trade Kyrie for CP3. Kyrie is not a prototypical PG and doesn't play great D, but it is still going to be hard to get a better side-kick for LeBron than Ka. He is an amazing offensive force as he showed all finals. Plus CP3 is older and injury prone.

There is also a Boogie Cousins rumor for Love. Out of all the rumors, the one that should scare the Dubs most is Paul George ending up with LeBron. They would get somebody who can guard Durant and is also a well-rounded and tall offensive player. But can they still play well together and challenge the Dubs, who play great team ball to expertly mesh all the talent they have? The Cavs will have 3 great 1-on-1 players if PG joins them and they can take turns scoring. That should help when LeBron goes to the bench. The Cavs outscored the Dubs in many of the stretches when LeBron was on the floor and still lost the series 4-1. Thats an amazing +/- for the King and having PG on the floor during those times will be a huge upgrade. The problem is, Ty Lue and the Cavs culture may still play 1-on-1 ball with all 3 and it will be up to the King to involve everybody and bring this together. It's also easy to under-estimate Love's rebounding. PG can't rebound the same way. At least PG plays D. With Melo, you lose both the rebounds and don't upgrade the D either. There was a stretch in game 3, which Steve Kerr specifically called out in the presser, when Love got 3 offensive rebounds and completely dominated the Dubs and almost stopped their momentum. Cavs must tread cautiously with Love. However, LeBron will make the calls and he has to live or die with it.

The season is over, the finals are over, and even the parade is now done. The Dubs did it. Their entire roster now feels like headed for free agency. So it will be a fun off-season for the Dub nation to see who they re-sign and surround the big 4 with. Curry will finally break the bank. It was nice to see KD publicly offer to take just a little less to enable the team to make a competitive offer to Iggy and Livingston. Both may get great offers from other teams too. Let's see how this plays out. You can never fault the players for maximizing their earning potential. Both those guys are probably looking at the last major contract of their careers. Livingston especially deserves every dime after almost losing his leg in that horrific injury earlier in his career. Overall, the Dubs are in a good spot. The team will look different, but the front office has been immensely successful the last 5 years and it will be interesting as a basketball fan to see how they cobble up another team around the big 4. Special shout-out to David West for taking much less money to go through a championship experience. He got it done and was a key contributor as well.

I am really surprised and impressed with folks like West giving up their role and money to win a championship. I can see super-stars wanting the ring as winning a Finals MVP is a huge boost to KD's legacy for instance. But West winning this as a bench player is not a life changing event, but they still appreciate and chase that ring. I respect that! Not sure how many of us will give up serious money for a championship ring. West declined a 12 mill option with the Pacers last year to join the Spurs for 1.5 million. He then signed a similar contract with the Dubs this year. And his quote about how "you can't take the treasure with you as Egyptians learned" was a classic. Probably the best post-finals moment, way better than all the real or fake twitter wars between Draymond and LeBron. Speaking of, LeBron's take that he has never been a part of a super-team was ridiculous! He and his Heatles buddies were the creator the whole concept. Thats why what he did was so much worse than Durant. Without LeBron's precedent, the whole idea of Durant joining the Warriors might have not even crossed the minds of Draymond or Durant or anybody. LeBron is the pioneer of the concept and he has to forever share some of the blame for these other super-teams in this era.

I can't believe I am saying this, but I agree with Stephen A in that, from Duran't personal perspective, his move was weaker or a easier way out than what LeBron did. Joining a 73-win team is an easy way out. But thats not the point and I am not too worried about Durant as an individal. He can take care of himself and his own legacy and I don't care about that all that much. But in terms of what it means to the NBA as a league and it's competitive balance, LeBron's move was much worse because he set a precedent that folks like Durant can follow. What LeBron did was repeatable and stars are trying to hook-up every off-season these days. Sometimes they are successful, sometimes they are not, but they all seem to try. On the other hand, Durant joining the Warriors was a unique situation created by a confluence of a few lucky breaks for the Dubs that may never happen again. The salary cap doesn't jump 35% every year. The 2-time MVP of the league (Curry) rarely enters that same season as the 82nd highest player in the league, thus enabling the team to chase another superstar with all that extra cap money. Without these two major aberrations, I don't think KD joins the Dubs. This obviously impacts the competitive balance in the short-term, but I am not worried about the long-term impact of this KD move. LeBron's move to Miami and even back to Cleveland with Kevin Love was different, more repeatable, and lethal development for the league. With all that said, super teams are here to stay in 2018 and we can only hope somebody steps up to challenge the Dubs. My smart money is still on the King and the Cavs.

Ka is Key

I heard in a podcast that the nickname for Kyrie Irving in his inside circle is Ka. Whatever his name is, he is the key to the rest of the NBA finals. He is the one who won them last year's finals too. I am not saying this just because he hit that game winner in game 7. But what he did throughout that game 7 and earlier in game 5 when both LeBron and him scored 41 each to will the Cavs to a victory was sensational. That was the turning point in the series. They could not have come back from 3-1 and won that series without Kyrie and the 41 he dropped in that game 5. LeBron is great and is the heart and soul, but as great as LeBron is, he can't do it alone. Not last year against that talented Dubs team and definitely not this year against the even more loaded Dubs roster. So LeBron absolutely needs Kyrie. The guy is unstoppable even against a great defender like Klay. And when he is in that mode, Dubs are in trouble. Kyrie has been that good in game 3 and 4 in Cleveland this year much like games 5 and 7 last year. Also, in game 4 against Boston in the previous round this season. He was not that great in games 1 and 2 of this finals and the Dubs won both easily. So, the Dubs better have an answer to Ka if they want a parade in Oakland this year.

Kyrie is not LeBron, but is a difference maker. Thats because LeBron's 30-10-10 is already accounted for. We might as well put that in the game 5 box score right now. He has been ridiculous throughout these playoffs and the finals and we all take his performance for granted. The guy is averaging almost a 32-12-10 in these finals and we don't even talk about him that much. And even with that, the Dubs dominated the series over the first 3 games. But once Kyrie got in on the act, Dubs have had their hands full. Through the nineties and early aughts, NBA was all about individual superstars playing isolation and 1-on-1 ball. It was fun watching MJ do it, but it got boring at some point and the league became a drag. The game opened up, thanks in part to some rule changes and thanks in part to teams like the CWebb-Kings and the Nash-Suns. They revolutionized the game, especially the mid-aughts Suns. Now, the Dubs have taken that Suns' style to a 'hole 'nother level with superstar talent up and down the roster, robust team defense, passing, and deadly 3-point shooting. Even with all that in place, even in this day and age, sensational 1-on-1 talents like LeBron and Kyrie can cause so much havoc.

No wonder stars always had the reputation of having all the power and basically running the NBA because individual talent impacts this game so much even against a well-oiled offensive and defensive juggernaut like the Warriors. Kyrie can again be a thorn on the Dubs side the rest of the way starting with game 5 tonight. Dub-nation has to be slightly nervous after what happened last year. It's again 3-1. Sure, it was 3-0 and then 3-1 unlike last year, but there are some similarities. The smart money for game 5 is still very much on the Dubs. It's basically the same matchup, except the Dubs have added  to that game 5 roster Durant and Draymond, who was suspended for last year. Thats a huge upgrade and even without them two, it took a sensational 41 point night from both LeBron and Kyrie for the Cavs to win last year. The chances are, those 2 are going to bring it again, but just like in game 3, the Dubs may still have enough to wrap this up. If not, oh boy! They will be in a lot of hurt! The pressure will be intense and they will probably lose game 6 on the road to force another game 7 at home under immense pressure with the Cavs knowing and feeling like they can win a game 7 at Oakland just like they did last year. The Dubs don't want it.

So, they better wrap this up today. This is why KD came to town and if he can't finish this, this whole season will be a bigger bust than last year when the Dubs won 73 regular season game and blew the finals. Few things in the world live up to the hype. There are 2 things in this series that have exceeded the highest of expectations. One, the entire career of LeBron James. No one was more hyped as a teenager and very few have delivered more as an adult than LJ. The other hyped up event that has played according to the script is KD joining the Dubs to make this a super-team. Some super-teams don't work out, but this one has worked out to perfection. They made it to the finals and were 3-0 and are now 3-1. They better finish that to make this a storybook ending. The longer this series goes, the more pressure on the Dubs. They have to contain LJ and Ka to wrap this one. One of the under-rated aspects of this 3-point driven league today is, how it's harder to double team stars. They are just going to kick it out to the shooters and you may give up 3 instead of 2. So, you have to single-cover the LeBrons and the Kyries of the world and hope a great defender like Klay can slow them down. Thats what the Dubs will do, but they need more than hope to drive this to the ground in game 5. They just might get it done.

Almost a sweep

The third installment of Cavs versus Warriors in the NBA finals starts tomorrow. Pretty much the entire World penciled this matchup in back in November. Of course, it took us 7 months and God knows how many games to actually get to this finals. Usually, at least the playoff games along the way are interesting. Not so much this year. The Dubs are 12-0 and the Cavs are 12-1 after 3 round of playoffs. I predicted a competitive conference finals, but that was not to be. Kwahi and Isaiah's injuries took away whatever little intrigue and challenge was left in the conference finals. This leaves us with these finals as the only hope for an intriguing playoff contest this season. This is the first time the same teams have met in 3 straight NBA finals and that tells you how rare and good these 2 teams are.

We needed this matchup for a fair and equal contest if not for anything else. The first year they met, LeBron carried the Cavs without Kyrie and Love and almost shocked the Warriors. Then, last year, the Warriors dealt with the Draymond suspension and a banged up Curry in addition to Iggy and Bogut's injuries mid-series. So, though this is the third time they are meeting in the finals, this is really the first time both rosters as constructed are engaging in a healthy contest. Hope it stays that way through the series. My heart almost stopped when Kyrie twisted his ankle and went to the ground against Boston. Luckily, he not only got up, but dominated that quarter and the subsequent quarters in that series. He looks ready to roll and so does LeBron who has had an amazing playoffs this year.

The Warriors are clearly the better team, but the Cavs are the closest and the most serious competition. Curry had a very mediocre finals last year and the Warriors still were dominating until game 5 when Draymond got suspended. Thats how good the Warriors team is and they have added Durant to the mix. So it's almost stupid to pick against them in these finals. But this is sports and last year's finals showed us that anything can happen. If anybody has a shot against these Aarriors, it's this Cavs team. The Cavs are a super-team themselves and are the closest to the Warriors in terms of talent. Kyrie steps up against the Warriors and Curry to make it even more equal. Last but not the least, the Cavs have the best player on the court in the form of LeBron whenever they suit-up against whoever including these Warriors and the best player makes more of an impact in basketball than any other sport.

Given all that, this has a chance to become another epic finals like last year. But it also can end up being a sweep because these Warriors are so good. I think the biggest challenge for the Warriors is going to be mental if these games get tight. They have not been challenged a lot all season and a close game this late in the season might stress them out in new ways that they may not be entirely comfortable with. More importantly, it may bring some bad memories from last year and even the Christmas day matchup. A close game with the ball in Kyrie's hands will be the dubs worst nightmare. That may be the Cavs' best hope in this series - force a few close games and see if the Dubs crack under the pressure as LeBron and Kyrie execute flawlessly. Easier said than done against these Dubs. So I call this for the Warriors 4-1.

The Dubs are going to go for a sweep. I believe thats the new challenge they will be chasing now after all that happened last year. They won't talk about it, but thats the mindset they are going in with. It's going to be hard for the Dubs to sweep just because of everything this matchup brings including LeBron. It's his 7th finals and thats an amazing feat. Given the one week gap leading into game 1, all of the angles for this matchup has been a bit over-analyzed much like the Super Bowl. One common topic was whether LeBron will be ranked higher than Jordan if he wins this one. Interesting question, but let him get there first before we start breaking that down. The other topic that has been over-thought and analyzed is whether the best starting 5 from both teams combined will actually have 3 Cavs factoring in the positions? I don't think so. It still has to be Curry, Klay, LeBron, Draymond, and Tristan. Some folks are giving the PG spot to Kyrie over Curry and manufacturing some excitement by making a case for the Cavs starting lineup being better. Real cute and nice try! You can slice and dice it anyways, but 4-1 for the Warriors it is.

Law of enlarging returns.

There is always great expectation before the start of all playoffs, especially in the NBA. But once it starts, you always feel bit of a letdown. It's only natural as nothing in life is as great as we expect it to be before it happens. Except for LeBron James' career that is. The law of diminishing returns eventually kicks in. So, every year, I get jacked up before the NBA playoffs and then when it starts, it is usually great and I enjoy every bit of it. But I do feel just a little bit of a letdown in the early rounds. I call it human nature. But there is nothing "human nature" about the early rounds of this year's playoffs. It's been truly disappointing and a blowout-fest to the point that even Charles Barkley, who works the TV shows covering these playoffs and has every incentive to keep our collective butts in front of the TV, calls it the worst playoffs ever.  There has been several reasons for this. Number one, the dominance of the Cavs and the Warriors in either league and the inability of any team to even come close to challenging them. They are both sitting pretty at 8-0 going into the conference finals. But it's more than just the sweeps.

Typically, playoff games are competitive. I remember several sweeps even going back to the Michael Jordan years where the team will win the series 4-0 but every game would be a 2 to 5 point nail-baiter. This year is exactly the opposite. Not only are the Dubs and Cavs winning their games by 20 points, even closer series that take 6 or 7 games are featuring a bunch of blowouts. I blame it on the 3-point shot. There has been a lot of talk about the pros and cons the 3-point shot and how it is changing the game. I like the new NBA. But the underrated aspect of the 3-point shot might be the impact it has on victory margins, especially in the playoffs.  Somebody will study this soon. While the 3-point shot makes it easy to mount a 26-point comeback like the Cavs did against the Pacers in round 1, it also inspires a lot of 26 point blowouts. I was really excited for OKC-Houston and even the Portland-Warriors round 1 matchups, but both were duds. Portland never really challenged the Warriors after a half and Houston won easily in 5. The Boston-Washington series in round 2 is giving us a game 7 tomorrow, but they have only given us 2 good games out of the 6 so far. No complaints though since those 2 games were terrific and probably the best in these playoffs so far.

As the field narrows, the dominance of the Cavs and Dubs is expected to continue and the inevitability of their finals matchup looms large with a threat of the Dubs crushing the Cavs in the finals. Basically, there are 2 great teams, out of which one is a historically special team. That skews the whole setup. But fear not. I expect the conference finals to be competitive. Boston or Washington will have something to offer to the Cavs, whether its Boston's defense and toughness or Washington's speed and athleticism. The real story though is in the West. We have been waiting for and even ridiculously blaming the Warriors for missing the Spurs in the playoffs the last 2 seasons. They lock horns starting today. The Spurs are no match to the Dubs in terms of talent on paper, but you know Pop and Kwahi won't go down easy. They will show us new wrinkles and expose hitherto unknown weaknesses in the Dubs to give us decent theater. At least, it will be different from watching the Rockets go down to the Dubs again in the playoffs. If the Cavs stay the course in the East and meet the Dubs in the finals, that will be competitive too despite the Dubs being the better team. Look where that got the Warriors in last year's finals! And even if the Celtics get past the Cavs (and the Wizards), they are one of the few teams that give the Dubs some trouble.

Long story short, playoffs are going to get better and give us better returns starting today. I don't think the Dubs go 16-0. They go 8-3 the rest of the way to win it all. I will leave it to the reader to decide which series goes 4-2 and which one goes 4-1 :-) Hint: look at the order in which I mentioned 4-2 and 4-1. A record of 8-3 doesn't scream exciting basketball, but better than what we have seen so far in these playoffs. I will gladly take it and so should you.

Draft Heist

The NFL draft is now in the books. It was a major event like every NFL event tends to be these days. They moved it from the weekend to a Thursday kickoff a few years back. I don't know why, but should be for money and prime-time viewership or something like that. I have not really kept up with it that closely ever since it moved to Thursdays - I liked round 1 better on Saturdays. But I did catch some of it this year. The first big news was the Niners swapping their 3rd pick for the Bears 2nd pick plus a bunch of extra assets. The Bears then took North Carolina QB Mitchell Trubisky. The experts say he is a very inexperienced QB and a shaky pick at best. The fact that Bears traded up to get him makes it worse. But the real head-scratcher was them moving up just one spot to get him ahead of the Niners. That makes no sense unless there were other teams trying to trade with the Niners for him and undercut the Bears. Supposedly that was not the case at all and the Bears seem to have successfully bargained and negotiated with and against themselves. If the team right ahead of you is willing to trade that pick, that means they are not interested in the player you want at that spot. If they were, they wouldn't be trading that pick with you and willingly losing that guy to you.

So instead of rolling the dice, calling the Niners bluff, sticking with the 3rd spot, and picking their guy, they gave up a lot of assets to get to 2 from 3. Worst case, you won't get Trubisky and have to settle for another QB at 3. It's not like you are losing out on a consensus number 1 QB like a Peyton Manning or an Andrew Luck. Believe me, if it was Andrew Luck, Niners would have been trading up to 1 instead of dropping down to 3. The irony is, the 2 teams ahead of the Bears were probably the only teams that needed a QB worse than the Bears. Still, neither cared about Trubisky and the Bears went after him like he is Tom Brady and Cam Newton rolled into one. On the flip side, the QB position is the most important one on the field and I guess you go after the one you like at all costs. May be the Bears know something the rest of us don't. They may not deserve credit for being smart with this pick, but kudos to them for being brave. It was a great start to the draft providing folks like me on the couch a nice chuckle. Good luck to Trubisky and the Bears. After all, he can't be much worse than Jay Cutler, another QB the Bears gave a lot to acquire back in the day. I was driving from Chicago to Champaign, Illinois for work around that time and I still remember how excited the Bears faithful sounded on the radio the entire drive about Cutler.

The Niners under the rookie GM John Lynch deserve a lot credit for that Bears heist. He then used some of the assets at his disposal to trade back in to the later stages of the first round to get Alabama's Reuben Foster, who was free-falling due to off-field issues. The fact that Lynch was considering Foster even at 2 or 3 tells you how highly he thought of him. Lynch was supposedly talking trade with every team from pick 12 or 13 once Faster started to slide. Niners finally got him at 31 just as the Saints were calling Foster to inform him that they are going to pick him at 32. Little did they know the Niners stepped in ahead of them to take Foster. Great rookie draft for Lynch and I will give him a high grade overall. The third round QB pick of Iowa's C.J. Beathard was questionable. But you could tell that was coach Kyle Shanahan's choice. You have to trust his offensive instincts and hope Kyle is right for Lynch's sake. The Arizona Cardinals did good with their picks too. I like how they focussed their high value picks on defense. It was a surprise that they did not draft a QB though they can use one and they also hinted all along they would draft one. The consensus grade for them seems to be hovering around a B. I give them A+ for the names they drafted. You can't go wrong with a Budda and a Haason.

In the NBA playoffs, the first round had lesser drama than I expected. Houston dispatched Oklahoma rather easily and only the Clippers-Jazz went to a game 7. Not sure why though. Once Blake Griffin was hurt, Jazz should have run the Clips off the joint. They did not, but they won games 5 and 7 on the road to put the Clippers to bed. The Jazz have to play a lot better against he Warriors if they want to be a legitimate threat. They have some pieces that can cause the dubs some discomfort. But they can't play young like they did against the Clips. It looks like we are headed towards a Rockets-Warriors western conference finals anyways. I doubt if the Spurs can beat the Rockets. The Rockets are the kind of team that the Spurs can totally handle in the past. But this Spurs team is not in the same class anymore. They have the coach, experience, championship respect, and pedigree. But they don't have the same players on the floor. There is only so much Kwahi can do on both ends of the floor and they need to resurrect a versions of LaMarcus Aldridge and Pau Gasol from 3 years back to fortify this roster. The Rockets should have enough firepower to beat the Spurs 4 out of 7 times and if the Rockets want to show us that they can threaten the Warriors for real, they have to dispatch the Spurs in 5 or 6 games.  If Houston makes it, the Warriors would have missed the Clippers and the Spurs entirely in the last 3 playoffs.  No big deal and definitely not the dubs' fault, but it is an amazing and a very unlikely coincidence in the West.

The big NBA story this off-season  is going to be about what happens to the Clippers with the pending free agencies of CP3, Blake, and Redick among others. "Blow them up" seems to be the consensus, but I am torn. I am always wary of blowing a good team up when their stars are still young. Sure, this group is not able to get over the hump. Actually, they don't even seem to be able to get to the hump to try and get over it. So may be they have to rebuild. But then again, how easy is it to find players like Chris Paul and Blake Griffin again? Let me tell you that it's real hard. Those kinds of players don't grow on trees. I never understood how blowing up a team with such players who get your team to the top half of the Western Conference every year is going to help. I would tweak it rather than blow it up. Thats what they may do anyways and it does make sense in one respect. Blake seems to be injury-prone and may be you don't want to back up the Brinks truck for him. If you can swap him for some younger assets, may be reloading around CP3 and that younger asset is the way to go. Of course, that may not be ideal for CP3 personally and he may want to go somewhere he can win right away. In that case, may be blowing this up and rebuilding might be a necessary evil and thats probably where the media is coming from in the first place with that take. If I was Clippers owner Steve Balmer, I will try to keep CP3, trade Blake and go from there. Lets see what the crazy maverick does.

Sixteen Chapel

I thought the Warriors-Blazers series was over right after game 1. The Blazers came at the dubs in game 1 at Oakland with everything they got. Their best 2 players, CJ.McCullum and Damian Lillard, were both sensational the entire game and ended up scoring 75 combined points. They outplayed the famed Warriors back-court convincingly, especially in that first half. At the end of the day, the Blazers lost that game by a dozen points. That told me all I needed to know about the ceiling of the 2 teams. The Blazers' ceiling was basically about 15 points behind the Warriors. I can't even say that fourth quarter was the Warriors ceiling, but was definitely Draymond Green's magnum opus. Thats what makes the dubs a true super-team. You would think Draymond is their fourth wheel, but he is actually a superstar who does everything except score for this team. When he takes over a show like he did in game 1 on the defensive end and kills the Blazers independent of what his 3 superstar buddies did on the other end, you know this team is scary good. There is a block of Dame Lillard in that game that I would advise everybody to look up on YouTube. Draymond is guarding somebody on the perimeter on the strong side not far from Dame. Dame drives on his man from the same side and goes to the hoop. Somehow Draymond decides to chase him down and is right there to block his shot at the rim. Dray had no business being even in that TV frame, but he was there waiting for Dame. It captured not just his effort and his deceptive athleticism, but also his high basketball IQ. Long story short, the Blazers had no shot in the series, and when they fell short after their best effort in game 1, I knew they can't win this fight. I thought they may steal 1 in Portland if the Warriors fell asleep, but not so surprisingly, the Warriors put them away even without Durant in a convincing sweep. 

Of course every round of the playoffs become increasingly difficult and it's not uncommon for us fans and media to fall in love with a team after round 1 only to see the team struggle in the next round and lose in the round after. Even within a series, fortunes can swing big time. Ask the Warriors about the finals when they lost after leading 3-1 or Durant about his Thunder team losing after dominating the Warriors to a 3-1 advantage in last year's Western conference finals. So lets not get carried away and award the finals to the Warriors and the Cavs after their respective first round sweeps and hand the ring over to the Warriors yet. With all that said, the Warriors are the best team and the prohibitive favorites to win it all this year. There are several ways to look at this team and explain how it is one of the most historic collection of talent in one roster. I am not a basketball historian, but I can't think of another team where 4 of the top 20, may be even top 15, players in the entire league playing for the same team in their early or peak primes of their careers. Thats the other scary part. Klay and Draymond are probably still getting better. But the clear proof that the dubs are a scary good super-team has been in display the last several weeks and in this Portland series. Kevin Durant is a top 3 talent in the league today and is arguably the Warriors' best player. And they are a true contender without Durant suiting up. That blows my mind. If Durant sits out the rest of the playoffs, their odds will drop, but they will still be the favorites in Vegas to win it all this year. Thats like the Cavs being the favorites even without LeBron or the Rockets without Harden. Those teams sure don't have the talent or depth to pull that off. 

All of this brings us to the key question. Can the Warriors go 16-0 in these playoffs? This may sound presumptuous, but this questions is definitely making the rounds in the Bay Area and elsewhere and rightfully so. I have to say the dubs won't go 16-0 because it's hard to do. Also, the history says no as no team has done it before - only the 2001 Lakers came real close with a 15-1 run. Plus this dubs team could have a bad shooting night and lose one on the road. They do have a shot if Draymond makes it his mission to get to 16-0 like he wanted the 73-win season last year. If they make a commitment and go after it, we might see it, but I wouldn't bet on it. And the main reason they may not make it is the sad story of coach Steve Kerr's health. Kerr has had some major ups and downs in his life, but his health complications from the botched back surgery is really a depressing story. He has a team of a lifetime in his hands and is seriously staring at a legendary run that would rival the Phil Jacksons and Gregg Popovichs of the world if everything breaks the way we expect it to over the next few years. This is hard to walk away from and he might have to. Given his situation, his continued health and wellbeing is way more important than what happens with his coaching career. I wish him the best and would love to have him back, but if he can't coach again, I sure hope and pray that he can at least live a normal, healthy, functional life. But Kerr's potential absence might be the biggest challenge to the dubs going 16-0. The dubs are a well-oiled machine and I like coach Mike Brown, but I am not a big fan of Mike Brown's X's and O's capabilities. Not having Kerr on the sidelines is going to cost the dubs a game or 2. Thats usually a big deal in the playoffs, but when we are talking about a tram going 16-0, losing a game is not the end of the world. But this does mean I don't expect the dubs to go 16-0. With a healthy Kerr and Durant, it will still be a tough deal, but they may make it interesting and get real close. If they do, it's going to be another cherry on top of this amazing playoffs. This year's playoffs has been very entertaining and hoping the stories only get better. We don't need any more of these Blake Griffin injury, and Steve Kerr's ailment, and Isiah Thomas's sister's passing. But bring on the sweet sixteen!

NBA for real

After one of the most riveting regular seasons in recent NBA history, the playoffs, A.K.A the real season, kicks off this weekend. This year's playoff version looks even more appetizing than before. Dame Lillard and the Blazers gave us a couple of great games against the Warriors last year. They play the dubs in round 1 this year. Dubs, the presumptive favorites, are even better this year and should win this series, but the Lillard-Curry matchup is always fun to watch. The best matchup of round 1 is of course Thunder V Rockets. The 2 MVP candidates and former teammates in Westbrook and Harden will go at each other. I expect this series to go 7 and won't be surprised one bit if the Thunder win it in a upset. Not to digress, but speaking of the Thunder, I can't even imagine how their fans feel about their one-time core of Durant, Westbrook, and Harden, which is now completely dismantled with all of them  playing at MVP level in different cities. All OKC has left is the mercurial Westbrook, but at least they got him and he went nuclear this year. He gave us a season for the ages just like Curry did last year.

Of course the other upset result could come in the Jazz against the clippers matchup. As great as the Clippers have looked recently, they may have their hands full with the Jazz. There isn't a lot of intrigue in the East in round 1, but it's coming. A potential Washington-Boston second round matchup and a Cleveland-Boston Eastern Conference Finals are both very welcome. Eventually, I expect a Cavaliers-Boston tussle in the East and LeBron will make it to the finals again despite Boston having home court. When it's all said and done, may be we will be staring at the rubber match in the Warriors-Cavs finals trilogy. But the Cavs can't take anything for granted. Time for them to wake up from their slumber and turn on all the proverbial switches. We need a good finals to cap off this brilliant season. The season itself was great for several reasons, but the defining story of the year was of course Russell Westbrook averaging a triple-double and beating the record for total number of triple-doubles in a season. I never thought I would live to see somebody do it. He is unquestionably my MVP. Harden has been great and has more wins, but if a man averages a triple-double, just give him the MVP.

There are even some murmurs against the very basis and hype surrounding the concept of a  triple double. I personally love the stat. I think it's a simple and effective indicator of versatility and well-roundedness in a player. While we are in the topic of awards, I would also give Mike D'Antoni, the coach of the year award for what he has done with Harden and the Houston Rockets. Speaking of D'Anoni, Phoenix Suns, the team he coached during it's most recent heydays, missed the playoffs again. Despite that, this is one of the most exciting times in the recent Suns history. The team is loaded with real young talent. Devin Booker dropped 70 on Boston and that put him on the map nationally. He is only the 6th player in the history of league to score 70. He is in the most improved player conversation for this year. He may be a MVP candidate soon before we realize it. And the rest of the Suns roster looks very promising too. Plus, they should get a top 5 pick this year and that should help keep the momentum going. Booker will represent the team at the lottery for the second year in a row. I can't wait for the BBC show - Booker, Bender, and Chriss, to take off. May be it will be BBCC show if they also get Lonzo Ball in this year's draft. The possibilities are endless for this young team.

First things first though. Bring on this year's playoffs for us to enjoy.

Warriors in trouble?

Nothing is guaranteed in life or sports. Warriors are figuring that out. Durant's knee injury is a scary situation for sure. It's amazing how in a second things can change completely in life and sports. Of course, it's not that serious for the dubs yet. Durant is supposed to come back for the playoffs, actually much earlier than that. But the Spurs as usual are on their tail and the fear for the Warriors is losing home court in the playoffs. Winning the regular season looked like a foregone conclusion for the first 4 months, but now looks shaky since they lost back-to-back games for the first time in forever since Durant's injury. That was one of the coolest records in their run and they have now lost to the Wizards and Bulls back-to-back on the road. Of course this was a tough road-trip anyways and they still have to adjust to life without Durant. Still, the amber-light is on, if not the red-light and that is totally understandable when you lose a top-3 talent in the league like Durant. Even a deep, talented Warriors team cannot move on without any impact.

But the Warriors will be fine as long as Durant comes back relatively healthy in time for the playoffs. After the initial bump, they should be able to compete and win in the regular season like last year without KD. It will be interesting to see if the Spurs get past them, but what does that even mean in the long run? The Spurs had the second spot last year in the West and had home court against the Thunder and didn't even get past that second round series. So if both the Warriors and the Spurs do make it all the way to the Western Conference Finals, I am not sure how big the home court is going to be. But just the prestige and optics of being the best in the West and the league is important and losing that is not good for the Warriors. You have to be aggressive and go for the crown at every point in sports. Things change constantly and I always say, the window doesn't close but others just surpass you before you realize it. As great as the Warriors have been this season and as young as their core is, they can't take anything for granted for this season or the future and they have to get the best out of every game.

Speaking of windows and challengers, the NBA trade deadline had a great start and a quiet end. Boogie Cousins addition to the Pelicans has a potential to be landscape changing. It has not worked out for them in it's first week, but there is too much size and talent there to write them off. In fact, given the Pelicans are chasing the 8th spot in the playoffs and the Warriors weaknesses against interior size, people were immediately trying to project how a Warriors-Pelicans first round matchup will play out. Would the Warriors be in trouble? I don't think so, but may be if the Pelicans can add a piece or two to those big guys next year, it can have a big impact in the West. And then the Durant injury happens. You realize how fickle and intensely competitive and challenging success in sports can be in sports. Everybody is coming for the crown. Can Curry and Durant hold the fort for the Warriors for a few years like LeBron or Kobe/Shaq or MJ? Time will tell. Even the Suns with the emergence of Booker and with yet another top pick coming up next year will be a threat in a couple of years. Nothing wrong with that!

Sequels Galore

Last week was one of the great football week over the last several months. First, the college football championship sequel was as good as I had expected it to be. Deshaun Watson and Clemson did what I was hoping as well as expecting from them. Alabama is as legit a team and as solid a program as they come in college football today. They brought everything they had and then some to the table, but I was expecting that the talent and experience of Watson would be the difference maker and would be able to handle it all. That’s what happened, though the Alabama D made it difficult for the kid. The game came down to the last seconds and Watson finished Bama off with a 2-minute drive like an elite NFL QB. I like him at the next level and would draft him high, but then again, we fall easily for great college QBs and some of them don’t translate to the next level. I would trust the GMs on this one instead of making my own call. I liked QBs like Michael Vick and Geno Smith coming into the NFL. Didn’t expect much from Cam Newton or Tim Tebow at the next level. As you can tell, I was right with Vick and Tebow and not so much with Geno or Cam. It’s a tough call and I am definitely not qualified to make it. But I will keep an eye on Watson on the projections of experts like Mel Kuiper, who should be out and about soon.

This college game came right after the start of the NFL playoffs, which had an underwhelming run over the wild-card weekend. Even the much-anticipated Giants-Packers game was a dud, though it’s never boring to watch a great QB like Aaron Rodgers play. He impressed us in the wild-card game and gave us a performance for the ages last weekend in the divisional round in what was one of the best football games I have watched in a long time! The word instant classic is often over-used in sports, especially in the 24-hour ESPN-classic era where they will repeat the so-called classic game just 4 hours after the final buzzer. But this one was a hyper-instant-super-classic. ARod is carving an amazing niche for himself and his career is shining brighter than ever. We all know that his talent has been on display for many moons now and we have seen him do amazing things on the field. He has also been one of those guys with immense confidence in himself and walks the cocky-v-confidence line expertly. Of course, it’s easier to act like the boss once you win a championship. That Super Bowl ring brings you all kinds of credibility that you can’t enjoy without it. And that’s true not just for star players like ARod or Curry or LeBron, but also GMs and coaches too. I always half-joke that the coaches get a free pass for 5 years after a championship and GMs, probably 10 years. Talented players get a pass anyways.

The thing that is really adding onto the legend of ARod is his cool and calm leadership. Few years back, he asked the media and fans to R-E-L-A-X after a bad start to a Packers’ season. And then the Packers had an amazing rest of the season as he had predicted. He had a similar moment this season as the Packers were looking mediocre and struggling in their division, but Rodgers then said they can run the table and save the season. Boy, was he prophetic! They have not lost since. Not only did they run the table, they did it primarily due to ARod’s amazing play. He spoke and then he delivered. That momentum continued well into this Dallas game and it looked like it was over at half-time with the Packers leading comfortably. The only blemish on ARod’s play in this game, probably his entire second half of this season, was an inopportune pick he threw in the third quarter right after Dak threw a horrible pick to give the Packers the ball. Packers could have put the game away in that drive, but instead, handed Dallas the ball back and gave them a lot of life. Dak played great from that point on and was actually the best part of this loss for Dallas. Their future with the new triplets – Dak, Zeke, and Dez, look great.

There were moments in the early parts of the game when I was telling myself, “I know Dak earned this and he has to go through this right of passage. This experience can only help them down the road. But this is the kind of game where Dallas probably needs Tony Romo to hang with Rodgers.”  Dak looked much more impressive later in the game and almost negated my Romo argument. Mind you, I was not saying that Dallas should have started Romo or even put him in mid-way through the game. I was just saying Romo would have played better in this game at this particular juncture of their respective careers. But Dak was not the problem as he tied this game, giving Dallas a chance to win. Dak kept pace with ARod. There were 3 game-tying or tie-breaking field goals in the last 2 minutes of the game. I can’t remember ever seeing something like that. After Dak drove the Boys down for a game-tying field goal, ARod worked his magic with just 35 seconds left while all of us were getting ready for overtime. The final play for the Packers, which led to the game winning field goal, was typical ARod! He scrambled left, danced around forever, and nailed a pass to a spot where only his TE Jared Cook could catch and barely stay inbounds. Cook made a great play to complement Rodgers’ genius.

The other hero for the Packers was Mason Crosby who nailed 3 pressure-packed, 50+ yard field goals in the final seconds, including one that was nullified by a Dallas timeout. That one was right down the middle while the next one that actually counted looked headed wide-left before sneaking in to deprive us of overtime. For a moment, when that ball looked headed wide-left, I thought this may be another heart-breaking OT loss for the Packers. They have had some rough go-arounds and hard luck in the playoffs since they won the Super Bowl 5 years back. They have had impressive seasons and ARod has been mostly great, but playoff dominance has still eluded them lately. That may be over this year as ARod is playing at an HNL (‘hole ‘nother level!) and they look every bit like the proverbial team of destiny. GB and Dallas played a great playoff game just 2 years back that GB won at home. That was the famous “Dez Bryant catch/no-catch” game and this year’s edition was even better. This game was another sequel that didn’t disappoint. The Atlanta-Seattle game was also a sequel from 4 years back, but Atlanta repeated the result this year with an impressive win that was not as close as the earlier one. Seattle was not great this year and they deserved to lose. Of course, both these NFC divisional match-ups and the NFC championship game next weekend are also re-matches from this regular season, which is also great.

Atlanta on the road next weekend is going to be tough for the Packers, though Dallas had the best record in the NFC. I can’t wait for that game! Good luck to the Packers and ARod as there is nothing in the NFL quite like watching a great QB play. Matt Ryan is probably the MVP of this season, but ARod is looking legendary right now. A Brady-ARod (much like the Peyton-ARod) Super Bowl has been eluding us and we need it this year. Brady and the Pats dispatched the Texans last weekend as expected and their real test only starts this weekend with the Steelers coming to town. Can Le'Veon Bell dance and find holes against a hoodie defense is a question I am eagerly awaiting to answer. Pats don’t have a great defense, but they have great coaches who seem to be able to scheme their way to success more than anybody else. What do the Pats do against the killer Bees is a great story for this week. The Steelers rode Bell to the AFC championship game with a win at Kansas City in another great game last Sunday. We finally got 2 great games on Sunday after a week and a half of playoff futility. The Steelers sneaked past the Chiefs in a game where the Chiefs scored all the TDs. Steelers moved the ball up and down and stalled every time, but scored enough field goals to win. Nonetheless, we got a good game and we also got a Steelers @ Pats game we want. Bring it on!

Another sequel that was hyped up was the Cavs at the Warriors game in the NBA on MLK jr day. The dubs took care of business at home and crushed the Cavs. Not much to say here except that we now wait for the finals. We hope these 2 teams make it and continue this rivalry and the sequels. LeBron doesn’t think this is a rivalry and I don’t know why he is so insecure about it. It is every bit a rivalry and the only one of any relevance in the NBA today. A third straight finals will cement it, but nothing is guaranteed in the brutal west. The great Warriors still have to get past the Spurs and/or the Rockets to get to the Finals. Along the way, they may run into the dreaded Westbrook too if the Thunder pull off an upset in the early rounds of the playoffs. All of this will make for an exciting playoffs, but I will trade it all for the Cavs-Warriors version 3. This time, hopefully no injuries and suspensions.  I wouldn’t mind a Spurs-Warriors western conference finals too along the way. That has been eluding us over the last 2 great dubs season as well. After the Packer-Cowboys game last weekend, I am shooting for the moon in the playoffs in all sports!

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