NBA is almost here. It's time to get excited and ready. I thought I will try and rank all the teams in the league and predict how the season is going to play out. I am going to stick my neck out with my analysis and see how it looks at the end of the season. So I started looking through all the rosters closely and boy, there is some serious garbage in this league. It straight away became obvious why there is so much heartburn and unease over the new NBA - post LBJ syndrome. For those of you that don't know the term, LBJ syndrome is the culture of stars trying to team up with other stars in hand-picked teams. This is something LeBron started with Wade and Bosh last year and everybody else is trying to emulate. It's very clear that NBA is in real danger if this trend continues. While the lockout was more about money than competitive balance, the two are related and competitive balance currently needs some attention and almost justifies the lockout. You can see why the owners freaked out at the Chris Paul to Lakers trade just coming out of the lockout. NBA needs another super-team like the NFL needs a Brett Favre comeback. These rosters also remind me a lot of MLB and that's not a good thing. A talent skew like the MLB will just NOT work in the NBA, not that ti works for baseball.
Almost half the rosters look like garbage and the scary part is, some of these teams will be in the playoffs because NBA lets way too many teams in to the playoffs - at least the MLB is better with that, though they are hell-bent of expanding their playoff counts next season. This also reminds me why NFL is the king. Not only do they have superior parity and competitive balance, they allow only 12 teams in to the big dance and rarely does garbage get in to the playoffs. It happens once in a while, but not always. When a bad team plays another bad team, somebody has to win. So some of these garbage NBA rosters will also sport decent records at the end of this season. But trust me, I see way more Pittsburgh Pirates and Kansas City Royals type rosters in this year's NBA than in the past. The hope is, these teams can develop, grow and turnaround. But for that to happen, the LBJ syndrome cannot continue and the system should enable these teams to retain the young stars that are already on their rosters or might end up there via future drafts. Let's hope for that to happen.
The objective of this NBA season is not different from last's for most of the fans - basically keeping the dream team in Miami away from a ring. But it is going to be harder this year than last. For all the talk about how last season was a failure for the heat, the reality is, it was a roaring success for the big 3. To win the Eastern conference in year 1 after all the negative attention, chemistry issues and adversity caused by unexpected losing streaks is just amazing. What else did we all expect? If they won it all in year 1, then LeBron would have been absolutely justified in predicting 8 rings when he stupidly said "not 1, not 2 .... not 7." Even now, I am scared he is going to get close to the number because they almost got there in year 1 and are going to be much better in year 2. On the court, their chemistry is going to be much better. Plus, their experience with all the adversity last year and the booing and hatred will probably make this year 2 look like a stroll on the South Beach for those guys. Given all this, I pick the Miami Heat to win the championship this year. I don't want them to, but I am afraid they probably will. I don't see a solid threat for them, though they are not invincible by any stretch of the imagination.
The heat lost to Dallas last year. The mavericks have the look and feel of a one-hit wonder. This is because of their age and also the fact that they lost Tyson Chandler. Speaking of age, the Spurs will be good as always, but they only got older and are not a serious contender. The Celtics are also older and not sure if they can do better than last year. The age bug is also beginning to bite the Lakers. They imploded against the Mavericks last playoffs and took a step back this year when they lost Lamar Odom. Unless they pull a Dwight Howard blockbuster, they may have problems even dominating their own town given that the Clippers are now looking great with a talented, young, athletic front court chauffeured by a stud point guard. While the rest of the league would love to have one good big guy at either the center or the power forward position, the Clippers have a stud PF in Blake Griffin and seems to have lucked into an amazing athlete with a huge upside at center in DeAndre Jordan. Even the Clip-joint may not be able to screw this one up. The Clippers are good, but they need at least a season under the belt with these pieces before becoming a serious contender.
I wouldn't discount the Lakers and the Mavericks completely yet, but the teams that can really challenge the Heat this season are the OKC Thunder in the West and the Chicago Bulls in the East. The baby Bulls will be better with that deep playoff experience last season, but they still need one more offensive weapon. Too bad they didn't add significant pieces this year, though Rip Hamilton will help. The OKC on the other hand have had 2 deep playoff runs and seem to have a complete roster. This is the year for them to breakthrough. I would love it for Kevin Durant to take down LeBron in the Finals. That would be poetic justice like no poet has ever seen before. And it's not a pipe dream. Speaking of pipe dreams, it's sad to me as a Suns fan that I am nowhere near mentioning them as a contender. In fact, it's out of pure respect for Nash that they are even ranked as high as they are in most power rankings on the web. That roster has been decimated by owner Robert Sarver and I just hope they are even in the running for the playoffs. Shame on you Sarver!
Now on to my rankings in each conference.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
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1. Miami - They are my pick to win it all this year. The rich usually get richer in this league. So they got Shane Battier. But I am surprised they didn't get significantly more. They still have issues with the bigs - anybody who signs Eddy Curry have some issues, and at the point guard spot. But their experience from last year will help immensely. Somebody please stop them.
2. Chicago - They have the MVP and a good core, but they need one more reliable scorer. I didn't like the way Miami handled them last year and I don't see any improvement to put them over the heat. Rip Hamilton helps, but they need a healthy, dominant Boozer and a little bit more.
3. Boston - Jeff Green's heart illness is a big blow. This team is old and I would have loved to see them challenge the heat of today with their big 3 when they were 3 years younger. I like the Brandon Bass pickup, but the golden oldies have to handle a compressed schedule and challenge Miami at the end. Not going to be easy.
4. Knicks - Depth is a concern, but the front court talent is just undeniable. Melo, Amare and Chandler is a phenomenal lineup. They are overpaying for all 3, but they can afford to. I think this team is going to surprise a lot of people. I hate to say this, but Steve Nash will look sweet in this team.
5. Atlanta - They have always been an enigmatic team for me. I don't think they have elite talent and they have also topped off talent-wise with all the money invested in their existing pieces. But they are talented enough to be a top 4 team in the L-East. On the positive side, they can party like 1999. They have both Tracy McGrady and Jerry Stackhouse.
6. Orlando - They have taken a step back, but they still have their stud - for now. They can make some noise, but will fall short. Hedo is not giving them what he gave during his first go-around. Rashard Lewis is not worth a lot, but he and a younger Hedo made things work for them. They have to find something new now before losing Dwight Howard.
7. Philly - Jrue is true. The development of Jrue Holiday makes the sixers pretty interesting. A good PG compensates for a lot of things and this sixers team is ready to take the next step this year especially if Evan Turner turns the corner.
8. Indiana - They made the playoffs with just 37 wins last year. They may be in a position to clinch the 8-Th seed this year too. But they are slightly better this year with the pickup of David West. A healthy West and an improved Paul George can get them 37 wins this season - which is a good improvement because this is a 66 game season and not a 82 game season.
9.Milwaukee - Shaun Livingston and Mike Dunleavy make this roster interesting for completely different reasons. Shaun's injury should still be one of the worst ever and is good to see him play again. It seems like Bogut and Jennings have leveled off a little bit. If one of them steps up, they could be a playoff team.
10. Washington - I would love to be a billionaire owner of a NBA team, but I will still cry if I have to pay 20 mill a year for Rashard Lewis. Then again, I might be happy I am not doing the same to Gilbert Arenas for whom the Magic traded Lewis. 20 mill for Lewis is bad any way you look at it, but this roster gives you another reason why it's bad. A young, barren roster like this can use a leader and they have a 20 million dollar guy who is not even close to providing that on the court. Both Lewis and the Wizards will go only as far as John Wall takes them.
11. Toronto - Nothing to really get excited about. This is why the system should help teams like these retain players like Chris Bosh. This is a typical MLB type team with no light at the end of the tunnel yet.
12. Nets - The recent injury to Brook Lopez is a killer. It impacts their performance on the court and their ability to chase Dwight Howard off of it. Deron Williams is a stud. But he is going to be tired carrying these guys around. That means he might want out soon too. Also, he should be super excited to see Mehmet Okur again on his team, or not!
13. Detroit - There is nothing going on with this team right now. If you are a fan, you can pay 100 dollars for bad seats, watch mediocre NBA basketball and wonder why Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva make a combined 18 million dollars. Let me know if you have the answer after watching 33 home games because neither myself nor their GM Joe Dumars have an answer.
14. Cleveland - Last year, they showed us how important one guy can be to an entire franchise. This year, they will show us how not all number 1 picks are LeBron James. Kyrie Irving is nice, but I am not sure if a Dukie can rescue a franchise. Tough spot for the Cavaliers. At least their owner sometimes makes things interesting.
15. Charlotte - Here's another reason why David Stern's rookie age limit makes sense. If a bunch of teams like the Bobcats this year have nothing to offer except their high-priced rookie, I would rather watch a 21 year old Kemba Walker than a 19 year old Kemba Walker. Their owner, the 48 year-old MJ could walk in to their starting lineup and will probably be an upgrade to what they got.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
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1. OKC - They are the team to beat in the west. Their young, talented roster has an amazing balance and variety to it. Westbrook, Durant and Harden are ready to take it to the next level this year.
2. Dallas - The mavs never got any love from anybody and they still don't after the championship. The concern now is that they are aging and old. They are still deep and talented and I love the way they replaced Caron Butler with Lamar Odom. But they will miss Tyson Chandler and J.J.Barea. Both of them meant a lot more to the mavs than what their talent would suggest.
3. San Antonio - It seems like we have been calling them old for the last 15 years, but they still had the best record in the west last year. They did lose to an eight seed in Memphis, but that was probably the worst match-up for them. I expect them to be up there in the west again. Are they a legitimate contender? I don't think so.
4. LA Lakers - They went from adding Chris Paul to losing Lamar Odom for nothing in 2 days. They are in trouble unless they steal superman from Orlando. Metta World peace will lead a bench that lacks depth. They got Troy Murphy, which means they are searching and reaching for answers to some serious questions.
5. LA Clippers - There is so much going on with this team that people are not even talking about the addition of Caron Butler. If this guy is healthy and productive, watch out. Blake Griffin and DJ will develop faster with a PG like Chris Paul and this team will be good this year.
6. Memphis - The west is not as great as it used to be and Memphis should be very relevant in the playoff race this year even if O.J. Mayo and Tony Allen start punching each other again. Zach Randolph makes a lot of dough, but was amazing for them last year. If he stays in his shoes, this year will be no different.
7. Portland - Brandon Roy is gone. Some of their good depth has disappeared. So they are not what they used to be, but are still playoff good. It is LaMarcus Aldridge's team now and they added Jamal Crawford to the mix. I am sure Jamal will shoot them in and out of games as always.
8. Denver - They lost 3 guys to China. Wilson Chandler will be missed, but I am not so sure about J.R.smith and Kenyon Martin. Their talent and depth has to come together under George Karl to make the playoffs. I think they do.
9. Golden State - The big catch of the off-season was Kwame Brown. Not the best way to upgrade a roster, but they have some young talent in the back-court to give the faithful some hope. Mark Jackson has his work cutout with this team.
10. Houston Rockets - They have some depth. Somehow Jonny Flynn always ends up in rosters with too many PGs. The vetoed trade would have given them Pau Gason, but they have some scorers even now. They could get in the mix for the 8-Th spot.
11. Phoenix Suns - It pains my heart to put the Suns here, but they have very little outside of Steve Nash. He deserves so much respect that many ranking have the Suns ranked way higher than their roster warrants just because of him. He is great and he makes others good. But Robert Sarver has made sure even Nash can't help this roster. It's hard to get excited over the Sebastin Telfair signing the year after you let Amare walk last year. Markieff Morris is the only hope this season. Of course Vince Carter is gone. I am hoping that's some addition by subtraction.
12. Utah - Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter give hope for the future, but their present also features young talent. Out of all the rebuilding rosters that are at crossroads, Utah's has the best balance between the future and the present. Of course, that doesn't mean they will have the best future, but it does mean they may continue to win a few games today.
13. Sacramento Kings - They have a lot of young talent that they have been accumulating the last few years, but for some reason it's not all coming together - at least not yet. This should be the year things get better, but it won't. I think they need a new coach and a veteran or two to help the talent gel and grow together faster.
14. Minnesotta - This team is all about the future. Derrick Williams, Ricky Rubio and Wes Johnson gives them hope and even some excitement. And Kevin Love gives them stability and strength in the middle. Don't expect too much out of them this year, but next year might be interesting.
15. New Orleans - It's good the Commish made sure they got Eric Gordon in the CP3 trade. Otherwise, they may be scoring just 50 points a night. This roster is cheap for a new owner to buy, but will also play cheap all season.
Friday, December 23, 2011
Wednesday, December 21, 2011
Big, Dark, Fun Day in the Bay
The Bay Area has not had a big Monday night football game in a while like the one this week when the 10-3 steelers rolled into the stick to play the 10-3 niners. Many great things happened for the niners on a night that started with darkness all around - literally, as the stadium lost power before the kick-off and then again in the first half delaying the game both times. It was not a great advertisement for the city of SF or the stick, but the niners probably secretly liked the fact that the old stadium they are trying to get out of looked bad. Of course it doesn't really help anything with the new stadium as that's well on it's way in Santa Clara. The delayed start and the interruptions probably didn't help the 2 teams either, but I am not sure if it hurt Big Ben with his injured ankle to the point of affecting the outcome of the game. But the Niners dominated the Steelers anyways. It was a big win for the niners - a defining one this late in the season, coming off a loss to the Cardinals.
There has always been some doubt around the true elite status of the niners despite their impressive record. Unlike the other contenders in the NFC, they don't possess a great offense or a stud QB. Alex Smith's biggest critics are mostly niner fans given what they had to endure the last 7 years with him. So even the niner faithful didn't feel comfortable with the playoff prospects of this team and after the loss to Arizona last week, there was open talk of a one and done playoff date. That is why this MNF game was big, not to mention the actual impact of this win on the standings and the bye week positioning. A tradition-rich, experienced and legitimate contender was coming to town, albeit with a hobbled superstar QB. By dominating them, the niners have reestablished themselves as a worthy playoff contender. Now the fan-base is convinced they can beat anybody at home - except the Packers that is. And they can even beat most NFC teams on the road, except the Packers and may be the Saints. They needed this confidence boost. The media and the fans had to truly believe that the niners are a true contender, but it was even more important for the players and the coaches to win a game of this magnitude for some positive reinforcement.
The niners defense is truly elite. The most amazing stat of the year is not all the gaudy numbers the QBs are putting up against soft pass defenses, but the fact that the niners have not allowed a single rushing TD in 14 games. It has gotten to a point where offenses have stopped trying to rush in the red zone against them. That's respect. As good as this defense is, it's hard to imagine them bottling up a Drew Brees or an Aaron Rodgers and that's why they were expected to be one and done in the playoffs unless the offense started scoring with some consistency. The best part of the Pittsburgh game for them is the fact that the offense showed up. Alex Smith looked more comfortable making some tough throws, though he did miss a few easy ones as always. They scored twice in the red zone and that was two times more than what they usually do. Of course, things are week-to-week in this league and the niners can come crashing back to earth next week at Seattle. The seahawks are no joke at home and the niners will have trouble, but they still needed this one against the steelers.
As for the rest of the NFL, it was a bizarro weekend as the packers finally lost at Kansas City of all places and the colts finally won against the Titans. New York had a rough weekend with the giants losing at home and the jets getting crushed by Philly. The eagles are surprisingly still alive in the muddled NFC East. Oakland had a rough 1-point loss at home and if not for the end of Tebow magic against Brady and the Belichicks, they would be in a world of trouble. They still are, but there is hope for the silver and black in a division that's tightening up every Sunday. The other big news of the weekend was Drew Brees abusing another defense and virtually assuring himself of besting Dan Marino's single season passing yardage record. This is the clearest sign yet that the game has become almost too easy for the QBs and the passing game over the last several years. Marino's record stood for 27 years, but now is under serious threat from 4 QBs, all in one season - Brees (for sure now), Brady, Rodgers and even Eli Manning. If that's not enough proof, Cam Newton is threatening Peyton Manning's rookie passing yardage record and he and Andy Dalton have become the first pair of rookies ever to pass for more than 3000 yards in a season. It must be hard playing corner-back or safety in the NFL these days. Imagine having to defend a Dan Marino every other week.
There has always been some doubt around the true elite status of the niners despite their impressive record. Unlike the other contenders in the NFC, they don't possess a great offense or a stud QB. Alex Smith's biggest critics are mostly niner fans given what they had to endure the last 7 years with him. So even the niner faithful didn't feel comfortable with the playoff prospects of this team and after the loss to Arizona last week, there was open talk of a one and done playoff date. That is why this MNF game was big, not to mention the actual impact of this win on the standings and the bye week positioning. A tradition-rich, experienced and legitimate contender was coming to town, albeit with a hobbled superstar QB. By dominating them, the niners have reestablished themselves as a worthy playoff contender. Now the fan-base is convinced they can beat anybody at home - except the Packers that is. And they can even beat most NFC teams on the road, except the Packers and may be the Saints. They needed this confidence boost. The media and the fans had to truly believe that the niners are a true contender, but it was even more important for the players and the coaches to win a game of this magnitude for some positive reinforcement.
The niners defense is truly elite. The most amazing stat of the year is not all the gaudy numbers the QBs are putting up against soft pass defenses, but the fact that the niners have not allowed a single rushing TD in 14 games. It has gotten to a point where offenses have stopped trying to rush in the red zone against them. That's respect. As good as this defense is, it's hard to imagine them bottling up a Drew Brees or an Aaron Rodgers and that's why they were expected to be one and done in the playoffs unless the offense started scoring with some consistency. The best part of the Pittsburgh game for them is the fact that the offense showed up. Alex Smith looked more comfortable making some tough throws, though he did miss a few easy ones as always. They scored twice in the red zone and that was two times more than what they usually do. Of course, things are week-to-week in this league and the niners can come crashing back to earth next week at Seattle. The seahawks are no joke at home and the niners will have trouble, but they still needed this one against the steelers.
As for the rest of the NFL, it was a bizarro weekend as the packers finally lost at Kansas City of all places and the colts finally won against the Titans. New York had a rough weekend with the giants losing at home and the jets getting crushed by Philly. The eagles are surprisingly still alive in the muddled NFC East. Oakland had a rough 1-point loss at home and if not for the end of Tebow magic against Brady and the Belichicks, they would be in a world of trouble. They still are, but there is hope for the silver and black in a division that's tightening up every Sunday. The other big news of the weekend was Drew Brees abusing another defense and virtually assuring himself of besting Dan Marino's single season passing yardage record. This is the clearest sign yet that the game has become almost too easy for the QBs and the passing game over the last several years. Marino's record stood for 27 years, but now is under serious threat from 4 QBs, all in one season - Brees (for sure now), Brady, Rodgers and even Eli Manning. If that's not enough proof, Cam Newton is threatening Peyton Manning's rookie passing yardage record and he and Andy Dalton have become the first pair of rookies ever to pass for more than 3000 yards in a season. It must be hard playing corner-back or safety in the NFL these days. Imagine having to defend a Dan Marino every other week.
Saturday, December 10, 2011
Off Season Fun
Sometimes in sports you have days during the off-season when there is so much activity and excitement around trades, free agent signings and assorted discussions that you feel like you are having more fun than being in-season. Yesterday was one of those days as both baseball and basketball featured some big news around player movement. First, the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim signed Albert Pujols to a 10 year 254 million dollar contract. It should be tough for Pujols to stomach just a 254 million dollar contract considering his agent was angling for 300 mill at one point! But in all seriousness, it's amazing teams are still throwing that kind of money at stars. We all thought the days of 250 million dollar contracts are over in MLB since the twice disastrous A-Rod signings. But always count on a owner or a team to go above and beyond and shock you. To be fair to Pujols, if anybody can command that rage of salary in this day and age, it's probably a generational hitter like him. With that said, I don't like this signing and the Angels will regret this sooner than later.
The Angels are a big market team with deep pockets. They just signed a 20 year TV deal with Fox sports for 3 billion showing us how these big money teams work and why they even take these risks. But I still don't like this signing. Pujols is great, and he has had phenomenal numbers since his first year with the Cardinals in 2001. He spent 11 amazingly consistent seasons in St. Louis and hit .300 with 30 home runs and 100 RBIs every single year except the last one - in 2011, he had 99 RBIs and batted .299, narrowly missing the bar. But he is suspected to be a couple of years older than his reported age and he will slow down way before the 10 years runs out on this contract. He can be a DH in the AL, but he won't be worthy of 25 mill in another 5 or 6 years. Also, the problem with baseball is, you need more than a superstar or 2 to be able to win. We see more and more "teams" winning the world series rather than individuals and stars. Yankees may be the exception to that rule, but then they can afford a team of superstars each making around 20 mill.
Of course pitching is an essential ingredient too and the Angles do have that - for now. They even signed C.J.Wilson in another big money signing yesterday. But, can one 25 million dollar hitter carry your entire lineup? If he doesn't, can you go and sign another 15 or 18 million dollar hitter? The answer here is a "no" for most teams and this is the difference between the Yankees and the others in my opinion. You probably knew the Yankees pay almost 15 mill a year to Jeter, but did you know that he was their 6-Th highest paid player in 2011? A-Rod, CC, Tex, A.J and Mo pulled a bigger paycheck than him and Posada was not far behind. I doubt if Angels can do that. That's why deals like these are too risky and bad deals for most teams. It's sure to disappoint unless everything goes perfect. I expect this deal to look bad in 2 years and downright horrible in 5. As an A's fan, it is disappointing to see both the Angels and the Rangers involved in an arms race with rumors of the Mariners jumping in for Prince Fielder. The A's may have nothing to offer next year in this division, but I don't think the Angels are all set for the future either with Pujols. Lets see if my crystal ball works.
Bad deals and big market spending splurges are common in baseball, but are not foreign to the NBA either. I have always maintained that the NBA's system is way better than MLB's and may be even the NFL's, but the league still needed a protracted lockout to tweak things. One reason for that is, the NBA just does not break the bank like the NFL does. But the owners also need to be saved from their own stupidity just like in baseball. The NBA also has a new problem. I call it the LBJ syndrome. Since LeBron James engineered an exit to Miami to play with his chosen superstar teammates, everybody is beginning to do the same. Stars - whether Albert Pujols or LeBron James, always had leverage, but the NBA stars are beginning to hand-pick exactly the town and teammates and it's getting to be ridiculous. First it was the whole LeBron saga, then Melo and Amare ended up in NY. And at least some part of the lockout was about competitive balance and parity. So I thought it was funny that the first wave of news out of the lockout was all about Chris Paul and Dwight Howard ending up in LA with the Lakers. So much for NBA parity and change.
And then the trade for Chris Paul apparently happens with Lamar Odom and Pau Gasol ending up in different towns. That's when something even more bizarre happened. The commish vetoed the trade. This totally opened up a can of worms to say the least. Everybody has an opinion on this and it's going in all directions. The only reason the league could step in is because they technically own the Hornets in a strange arrangement. So the other owners all own a piece of this franchise and when they objected, the commish (over) reacted. To me, there are only 2 issues with the veto. If all the owners collectively own the Hornets, are the Hornets supposed to do whats best for the Hornets or whats best for all the owners? If the owners want to do whats best for all of them and if they think not sending CP3 to the Lakers is good for them, then do it by all means. But to me, it feels like the only way to manage this setup is to let the Hornets operate independently and do whats good for that team. Believe me, this trade was not bad at all for the Hornets. If the owners should have vetoed any trade involving the Lakers, it was the Pau Gasol one with Memphis a few years back.
This trade was fair for all the parties, In fact, I have seen many "best back-courts ever" fail miserably and the Lakers acquiring it at the cost of Gasol and a lot of size is neither here nor there. Of course, these days we all have a soft-corner for new super-teams because they can probably keep the original super-team - the hated Miami Heat away from winning it all. The Paul trade in and of itself didn't scare me all that much. But the Lakers were also just setting up to go after Dwight Howard and that would have been a scary super-team down the road. The owners were hot and bothered about the rich getting richer, but the Lakers in this case are just able to get Paul because they know he will re-sign there and hence can afford the risk of renting him in his free agent year. There's no way to prevent it when they are a storied franchise in a big market with a lot of money and Kobe Bryant. Life is always going to be unfair. I don't mind the owners trying to make it as fair as they can, but they over-reacted in this case coming out of a contentious lockout. The bigger problem here is the LBJ syndrome like I said - Dwight Howard is now saying he wants to be traded to the Nets. You can try to solve it with systemic changes, which I hope they did with the new CBA. But they can't eliminate it right away and they can't do it right here, right now when the LBJ syndrome is at it's peak. And they definitely shouldn't use their flawed arrangement with the Hornets to try and accomplish that.
The Angels are a big market team with deep pockets. They just signed a 20 year TV deal with Fox sports for 3 billion showing us how these big money teams work and why they even take these risks. But I still don't like this signing. Pujols is great, and he has had phenomenal numbers since his first year with the Cardinals in 2001. He spent 11 amazingly consistent seasons in St. Louis and hit .300 with 30 home runs and 100 RBIs every single year except the last one - in 2011, he had 99 RBIs and batted .299, narrowly missing the bar. But he is suspected to be a couple of years older than his reported age and he will slow down way before the 10 years runs out on this contract. He can be a DH in the AL, but he won't be worthy of 25 mill in another 5 or 6 years. Also, the problem with baseball is, you need more than a superstar or 2 to be able to win. We see more and more "teams" winning the world series rather than individuals and stars. Yankees may be the exception to that rule, but then they can afford a team of superstars each making around 20 mill.
Of course pitching is an essential ingredient too and the Angles do have that - for now. They even signed C.J.Wilson in another big money signing yesterday. But, can one 25 million dollar hitter carry your entire lineup? If he doesn't, can you go and sign another 15 or 18 million dollar hitter? The answer here is a "no" for most teams and this is the difference between the Yankees and the others in my opinion. You probably knew the Yankees pay almost 15 mill a year to Jeter, but did you know that he was their 6-Th highest paid player in 2011? A-Rod, CC, Tex, A.J and Mo pulled a bigger paycheck than him and Posada was not far behind. I doubt if Angels can do that. That's why deals like these are too risky and bad deals for most teams. It's sure to disappoint unless everything goes perfect. I expect this deal to look bad in 2 years and downright horrible in 5. As an A's fan, it is disappointing to see both the Angels and the Rangers involved in an arms race with rumors of the Mariners jumping in for Prince Fielder. The A's may have nothing to offer next year in this division, but I don't think the Angels are all set for the future either with Pujols. Lets see if my crystal ball works.
Bad deals and big market spending splurges are common in baseball, but are not foreign to the NBA either. I have always maintained that the NBA's system is way better than MLB's and may be even the NFL's, but the league still needed a protracted lockout to tweak things. One reason for that is, the NBA just does not break the bank like the NFL does. But the owners also need to be saved from their own stupidity just like in baseball. The NBA also has a new problem. I call it the LBJ syndrome. Since LeBron James engineered an exit to Miami to play with his chosen superstar teammates, everybody is beginning to do the same. Stars - whether Albert Pujols or LeBron James, always had leverage, but the NBA stars are beginning to hand-pick exactly the town and teammates and it's getting to be ridiculous. First it was the whole LeBron saga, then Melo and Amare ended up in NY. And at least some part of the lockout was about competitive balance and parity. So I thought it was funny that the first wave of news out of the lockout was all about Chris Paul and Dwight Howard ending up in LA with the Lakers. So much for NBA parity and change.
And then the trade for Chris Paul apparently happens with Lamar Odom and Pau Gasol ending up in different towns. That's when something even more bizarre happened. The commish vetoed the trade. This totally opened up a can of worms to say the least. Everybody has an opinion on this and it's going in all directions. The only reason the league could step in is because they technically own the Hornets in a strange arrangement. So the other owners all own a piece of this franchise and when they objected, the commish (over) reacted. To me, there are only 2 issues with the veto. If all the owners collectively own the Hornets, are the Hornets supposed to do whats best for the Hornets or whats best for all the owners? If the owners want to do whats best for all of them and if they think not sending CP3 to the Lakers is good for them, then do it by all means. But to me, it feels like the only way to manage this setup is to let the Hornets operate independently and do whats good for that team. Believe me, this trade was not bad at all for the Hornets. If the owners should have vetoed any trade involving the Lakers, it was the Pau Gasol one with Memphis a few years back.
This trade was fair for all the parties, In fact, I have seen many "best back-courts ever" fail miserably and the Lakers acquiring it at the cost of Gasol and a lot of size is neither here nor there. Of course, these days we all have a soft-corner for new super-teams because they can probably keep the original super-team - the hated Miami Heat away from winning it all. The Paul trade in and of itself didn't scare me all that much. But the Lakers were also just setting up to go after Dwight Howard and that would have been a scary super-team down the road. The owners were hot and bothered about the rich getting richer, but the Lakers in this case are just able to get Paul because they know he will re-sign there and hence can afford the risk of renting him in his free agent year. There's no way to prevent it when they are a storied franchise in a big market with a lot of money and Kobe Bryant. Life is always going to be unfair. I don't mind the owners trying to make it as fair as they can, but they over-reacted in this case coming out of a contentious lockout. The bigger problem here is the LBJ syndrome like I said - Dwight Howard is now saying he wants to be traded to the Nets. You can try to solve it with systemic changes, which I hope they did with the new CBA. But they can't eliminate it right away and they can't do it right here, right now when the LBJ syndrome is at it's peak. And they definitely shouldn't use their flawed arrangement with the Hornets to try and accomplish that.
Sunday, December 04, 2011
Clear Eyes, Full Hearts, Can't Lose
"Friday Night Lights" is a critically acclaimed sports movie, TV series and originally a book. One of the best lines from it is "clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose". I am constantly reminded of it when I watch Tim Tebow. He has been THE story of this NFL season since he started playing and it just keeps getting better for him and the Broncos. His record is 6-1 and today at Minnesota, he even demonstrated his passing skills. Another game on the road, another late-game thriller, another comeback performance and another win. Tebow sure seems to have clear eyes - he rarely throws interceptions and this may not be the most complicated or sexiest explanation, but his low turnover number is one of the main reasons behind Denver's success. We know he has a full heart. Actually he is all heart, toughness and grit. Also, his heart is probably filled with Jesus too. Tebow seems like a really well-behaved kid committed to his faith. And of course he sure can't lose right now. Denver right now is convinced that there is no way they can lose a football game and I don't blame them.
I have no dog in this fight, but I still can't look away. That's the power of this Tim Tebow story. I am not a Denver fan. As a matter of fact, I have not liked them all that much since the day they kicked Jake Plummer - my favorite Sun Devil, out of town. I know that a lot of people are Tebow fans and want to see him succeed just because of his (and their) religious faith. But I am not religious like him and hence that's not an endearing factor for me. I do like him because he seems like a decent, well-behaved and humble human being, but his journey this season is fascinating to follow regardless of your affiliations. On the one hand, you have people who think he is God's gift to football who can win any game just with his intangibles and on the other hand, you have football experts who say he can't throw the ball to save his life. And Tebow is constantly proving both sides right! He is winning in unconventional ways and when you are quarterbacking a team to a 6-1 record after taking over at 1-4, it can't all be an accident or a lucky coincidence. He deserves more than some credit.
It almost feels disappointing if he has a good game and they win like he did today. It's a much better story if he wins while just completing 2 passes or throwing for just 60 yards or something crazy like that. He seems to be winning in all these different ways and has the Broncos leading the division. A team that at one point was the worst team in the division is now tied with the Raiders and is leading via the tie-breaker. That division has completely flipped in 12 games with Denver on top and San Diego at the bottom. The Raiders had an embarrassing loss today at Miami. With most of Oakland's talented offensive play-makers hurt, and with their trip to Lambeau coming up, this may become Tebow's division to lose. Raiders are a better team - especially on offense, but Carson Palmer is definitely missing his speedy receivers and they need Darren McFadden back. Plus Denver's schedule is slightly easier than Oakland's. Raiders are officially in a dog fight and their home losses to Kansas City and Denver may come back to bite them.
At the end of the day, AFC West will be won by the team that has clear eyes, full hearts that refuses to lose.
I have no dog in this fight, but I still can't look away. That's the power of this Tim Tebow story. I am not a Denver fan. As a matter of fact, I have not liked them all that much since the day they kicked Jake Plummer - my favorite Sun Devil, out of town. I know that a lot of people are Tebow fans and want to see him succeed just because of his (and their) religious faith. But I am not religious like him and hence that's not an endearing factor for me. I do like him because he seems like a decent, well-behaved and humble human being, but his journey this season is fascinating to follow regardless of your affiliations. On the one hand, you have people who think he is God's gift to football who can win any game just with his intangibles and on the other hand, you have football experts who say he can't throw the ball to save his life. And Tebow is constantly proving both sides right! He is winning in unconventional ways and when you are quarterbacking a team to a 6-1 record after taking over at 1-4, it can't all be an accident or a lucky coincidence. He deserves more than some credit.
It almost feels disappointing if he has a good game and they win like he did today. It's a much better story if he wins while just completing 2 passes or throwing for just 60 yards or something crazy like that. He seems to be winning in all these different ways and has the Broncos leading the division. A team that at one point was the worst team in the division is now tied with the Raiders and is leading via the tie-breaker. That division has completely flipped in 12 games with Denver on top and San Diego at the bottom. The Raiders had an embarrassing loss today at Miami. With most of Oakland's talented offensive play-makers hurt, and with their trip to Lambeau coming up, this may become Tebow's division to lose. Raiders are a better team - especially on offense, but Carson Palmer is definitely missing his speedy receivers and they need Darren McFadden back. Plus Denver's schedule is slightly easier than Oakland's. Raiders are officially in a dog fight and their home losses to Kansas City and Denver may come back to bite them.
At the end of the day, AFC West will be won by the team that has clear eyes, full hearts that refuses to lose.
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