Ka is Key

I heard in a podcast that the nickname for Kyrie Irving in his inside circle is Ka. Whatever his name is, he is the key to the rest of the NBA finals. He is the one who won them last year's finals too. I am not saying this just because he hit that game winner in game 7. But what he did throughout that game 7 and earlier in game 5 when both LeBron and him scored 41 each to will the Cavs to a victory was sensational. That was the turning point in the series. They could not have come back from 3-1 and won that series without Kyrie and the 41 he dropped in that game 5. LeBron is great and is the heart and soul, but as great as LeBron is, he can't do it alone. Not last year against that talented Dubs team and definitely not this year against the even more loaded Dubs roster. So LeBron absolutely needs Kyrie. The guy is unstoppable even against a great defender like Klay. And when he is in that mode, Dubs are in trouble. Kyrie has been that good in game 3 and 4 in Cleveland this year much like games 5 and 7 last year. Also, in game 4 against Boston in the previous round this season. He was not that great in games 1 and 2 of this finals and the Dubs won both easily. So, the Dubs better have an answer to Ka if they want a parade in Oakland this year.

Kyrie is not LeBron, but is a difference maker. Thats because LeBron's 30-10-10 is already accounted for. We might as well put that in the game 5 box score right now. He has been ridiculous throughout these playoffs and the finals and we all take his performance for granted. The guy is averaging almost a 32-12-10 in these finals and we don't even talk about him that much. And even with that, the Dubs dominated the series over the first 3 games. But once Kyrie got in on the act, Dubs have had their hands full. Through the nineties and early aughts, NBA was all about individual superstars playing isolation and 1-on-1 ball. It was fun watching MJ do it, but it got boring at some point and the league became a drag. The game opened up, thanks in part to some rule changes and thanks in part to teams like the CWebb-Kings and the Nash-Suns. They revolutionized the game, especially the mid-aughts Suns. Now, the Dubs have taken that Suns' style to a 'hole 'nother level with superstar talent up and down the roster, robust team defense, passing, and deadly 3-point shooting. Even with all that in place, even in this day and age, sensational 1-on-1 talents like LeBron and Kyrie can cause so much havoc.

No wonder stars always had the reputation of having all the power and basically running the NBA because individual talent impacts this game so much even against a well-oiled offensive and defensive juggernaut like the Warriors. Kyrie can again be a thorn on the Dubs side the rest of the way starting with game 5 tonight. Dub-nation has to be slightly nervous after what happened last year. It's again 3-1. Sure, it was 3-0 and then 3-1 unlike last year, but there are some similarities. The smart money for game 5 is still very much on the Dubs. It's basically the same matchup, except the Dubs have added  to that game 5 roster Durant and Draymond, who was suspended for last year. Thats a huge upgrade and even without them two, it took a sensational 41 point night from both LeBron and Kyrie for the Cavs to win last year. The chances are, those 2 are going to bring it again, but just like in game 3, the Dubs may still have enough to wrap this up. If not, oh boy! They will be in a lot of hurt! The pressure will be intense and they will probably lose game 6 on the road to force another game 7 at home under immense pressure with the Cavs knowing and feeling like they can win a game 7 at Oakland just like they did last year. The Dubs don't want it.

So, they better wrap this up today. This is why KD came to town and if he can't finish this, this whole season will be a bigger bust than last year when the Dubs won 73 regular season game and blew the finals. Few things in the world live up to the hype. There are 2 things in this series that have exceeded the highest of expectations. One, the entire career of LeBron James. No one was more hyped as a teenager and very few have delivered more as an adult than LJ. The other hyped up event that has played according to the script is KD joining the Dubs to make this a super-team. Some super-teams don't work out, but this one has worked out to perfection. They made it to the finals and were 3-0 and are now 3-1. They better finish that to make this a storybook ending. The longer this series goes, the more pressure on the Dubs. They have to contain LJ and Ka to wrap this one. One of the under-rated aspects of this 3-point driven league today is, how it's harder to double team stars. They are just going to kick it out to the shooters and you may give up 3 instead of 2. So, you have to single-cover the LeBrons and the Kyries of the world and hope a great defender like Klay can slow them down. Thats what the Dubs will do, but they need more than hope to drive this to the ground in game 5. They just might get it done.

Law of enlarging returns.

There is always great expectation before the start of all playoffs, especially in the NBA. But once it starts, you always feel bit of a letdown. It's only natural as nothing in life is as great as we expect it to be before it happens. Except for LeBron James' career that is. The law of diminishing returns eventually kicks in. So, every year, I get jacked up before the NBA playoffs and then when it starts, it is usually great and I enjoy every bit of it. But I do feel just a little bit of a letdown in the early rounds. I call it human nature. But there is nothing "human nature" about the early rounds of this year's playoffs. It's been truly disappointing and a blowout-fest to the point that even Charles Barkley, who works the TV shows covering these playoffs and has every incentive to keep our collective butts in front of the TV, calls it the worst playoffs ever.  There has been several reasons for this. Number one, the dominance of the Cavs and the Warriors in either league and the inability of any team to even come close to challenging them. They are both sitting pretty at 8-0 going into the conference finals. But it's more than just the sweeps.

Typically, playoff games are competitive. I remember several sweeps even going back to the Michael Jordan years where the team will win the series 4-0 but every game would be a 2 to 5 point nail-baiter. This year is exactly the opposite. Not only are the Dubs and Cavs winning their games by 20 points, even closer series that take 6 or 7 games are featuring a bunch of blowouts. I blame it on the 3-point shot. There has been a lot of talk about the pros and cons the 3-point shot and how it is changing the game. I like the new NBA. But the underrated aspect of the 3-point shot might be the impact it has on victory margins, especially in the playoffs.  Somebody will study this soon. While the 3-point shot makes it easy to mount a 26-point comeback like the Cavs did against the Pacers in round 1, it also inspires a lot of 26 point blowouts. I was really excited for OKC-Houston and even the Portland-Warriors round 1 matchups, but both were duds. Portland never really challenged the Warriors after a half and Houston won easily in 5. The Boston-Washington series in round 2 is giving us a game 7 tomorrow, but they have only given us 2 good games out of the 6 so far. No complaints though since those 2 games were terrific and probably the best in these playoffs so far.

As the field narrows, the dominance of the Cavs and Dubs is expected to continue and the inevitability of their finals matchup looms large with a threat of the Dubs crushing the Cavs in the finals. Basically, there are 2 great teams, out of which one is a historically special team. That skews the whole setup. But fear not. I expect the conference finals to be competitive. Boston or Washington will have something to offer to the Cavs, whether its Boston's defense and toughness or Washington's speed and athleticism. The real story though is in the West. We have been waiting for and even ridiculously blaming the Warriors for missing the Spurs in the playoffs the last 2 seasons. They lock horns starting today. The Spurs are no match to the Dubs in terms of talent on paper, but you know Pop and Kwahi won't go down easy. They will show us new wrinkles and expose hitherto unknown weaknesses in the Dubs to give us decent theater. At least, it will be different from watching the Rockets go down to the Dubs again in the playoffs. If the Cavs stay the course in the East and meet the Dubs in the finals, that will be competitive too despite the Dubs being the better team. Look where that got the Warriors in last year's finals! And even if the Celtics get past the Cavs (and the Wizards), they are one of the few teams that give the Dubs some trouble.

Long story short, playoffs are going to get better and give us better returns starting today. I don't think the Dubs go 16-0. They go 8-3 the rest of the way to win it all. I will leave it to the reader to decide which series goes 4-2 and which one goes 4-1 :-) Hint: look at the order in which I mentioned 4-2 and 4-1. A record of 8-3 doesn't scream exciting basketball, but better than what we have seen so far in these playoffs. I will gladly take it and so should you.

Sixteen Chapel

I thought the Warriors-Blazers series was over right after game 1. The Blazers came at the dubs in game 1 at Oakland with everything they got. Their best 2 players, CJ.McCullum and Damian Lillard, were both sensational the entire game and ended up scoring 75 combined points. They outplayed the famed Warriors back-court convincingly, especially in that first half. At the end of the day, the Blazers lost that game by a dozen points. That told me all I needed to know about the ceiling of the 2 teams. The Blazers' ceiling was basically about 15 points behind the Warriors. I can't even say that fourth quarter was the Warriors ceiling, but was definitely Draymond Green's magnum opus. Thats what makes the dubs a true super-team. You would think Draymond is their fourth wheel, but he is actually a superstar who does everything except score for this team. When he takes over a show like he did in game 1 on the defensive end and kills the Blazers independent of what his 3 superstar buddies did on the other end, you know this team is scary good. There is a block of Dame Lillard in that game that I would advise everybody to look up on YouTube. Draymond is guarding somebody on the perimeter on the strong side not far from Dame. Dame drives on his man from the same side and goes to the hoop. Somehow Draymond decides to chase him down and is right there to block his shot at the rim. Dray had no business being even in that TV frame, but he was there waiting for Dame. It captured not just his effort and his deceptive athleticism, but also his high basketball IQ. Long story short, the Blazers had no shot in the series, and when they fell short after their best effort in game 1, I knew they can't win this fight. I thought they may steal 1 in Portland if the Warriors fell asleep, but not so surprisingly, the Warriors put them away even without Durant in a convincing sweep. 

Of course every round of the playoffs become increasingly difficult and it's not uncommon for us fans and media to fall in love with a team after round 1 only to see the team struggle in the next round and lose in the round after. Even within a series, fortunes can swing big time. Ask the Warriors about the finals when they lost after leading 3-1 or Durant about his Thunder team losing after dominating the Warriors to a 3-1 advantage in last year's Western conference finals. So lets not get carried away and award the finals to the Warriors and the Cavs after their respective first round sweeps and hand the ring over to the Warriors yet. With all that said, the Warriors are the best team and the prohibitive favorites to win it all this year. There are several ways to look at this team and explain how it is one of the most historic collection of talent in one roster. I am not a basketball historian, but I can't think of another team where 4 of the top 20, may be even top 15, players in the entire league playing for the same team in their early or peak primes of their careers. Thats the other scary part. Klay and Draymond are probably still getting better. But the clear proof that the dubs are a scary good super-team has been in display the last several weeks and in this Portland series. Kevin Durant is a top 3 talent in the league today and is arguably the Warriors' best player. And they are a true contender without Durant suiting up. That blows my mind. If Durant sits out the rest of the playoffs, their odds will drop, but they will still be the favorites in Vegas to win it all this year. Thats like the Cavs being the favorites even without LeBron or the Rockets without Harden. Those teams sure don't have the talent or depth to pull that off. 

All of this brings us to the key question. Can the Warriors go 16-0 in these playoffs? This may sound presumptuous, but this questions is definitely making the rounds in the Bay Area and elsewhere and rightfully so. I have to say the dubs won't go 16-0 because it's hard to do. Also, the history says no as no team has done it before - only the 2001 Lakers came real close with a 15-1 run. Plus this dubs team could have a bad shooting night and lose one on the road. They do have a shot if Draymond makes it his mission to get to 16-0 like he wanted the 73-win season last year. If they make a commitment and go after it, we might see it, but I wouldn't bet on it. And the main reason they may not make it is the sad story of coach Steve Kerr's health. Kerr has had some major ups and downs in his life, but his health complications from the botched back surgery is really a depressing story. He has a team of a lifetime in his hands and is seriously staring at a legendary run that would rival the Phil Jacksons and Gregg Popovichs of the world if everything breaks the way we expect it to over the next few years. This is hard to walk away from and he might have to. Given his situation, his continued health and wellbeing is way more important than what happens with his coaching career. I wish him the best and would love to have him back, but if he can't coach again, I sure hope and pray that he can at least live a normal, healthy, functional life. But Kerr's potential absence might be the biggest challenge to the dubs going 16-0. The dubs are a well-oiled machine and I like coach Mike Brown, but I am not a big fan of Mike Brown's X's and O's capabilities. Not having Kerr on the sidelines is going to cost the dubs a game or 2. Thats usually a big deal in the playoffs, but when we are talking about a tram going 16-0, losing a game is not the end of the world. But this does mean I don't expect the dubs to go 16-0. With a healthy Kerr and Durant, it will still be a tough deal, but they may make it interesting and get real close. If they do, it's going to be another cherry on top of this amazing playoffs. This year's playoffs has been very entertaining and hoping the stories only get better. We don't need any more of these Blake Griffin injury, and Steve Kerr's ailment, and Isiah Thomas's sister's passing. But bring on the sweet sixteen!