The Lakers are winning their series against the Hornets 3-2. It's following a known pattern as the Lakers first lost home court and then seized it back. Then the home teams have won 2 "must-win" games. CP3 was awesome in game 4. This playoff series has been a comeback tour for CP3. The last couple of years, he has taken a step back for some unexplainable reason - both him and the Hornets after looking like the team of the future in 2008 when they extended the Spurs to 7 games. He was not super-dominant through the regular season either and the season of course started with him demanding a trade. He should have been the consistent league leader in assists the last couple of seasons, taking over from MP3 Steve Nash, but Nash is still the top dime-dropper. Paul is a distant 4-Th. But this playoffs have given him the stage to excel and boy did he do that in game 4! Of course the series came back to LA and Kobe dropped a couple of rim-rattling dunks. Now the Hornets may win game 6 and lose in 7 or I would not be surprised if the Lakers finish things off in 6 as well. Thats typically how the NBA cookie crumbles.
There has been a couple of odd cookies in this playoffs so far as well. While I expected the Celts to win, the sweep was surprising even with the Knicks injuries. Of course the Bulls win should have surprised nobody. The Heat and the Thunder are doing good as well while the Mavs and the Blazers are involved in a street fight. The odd-ball surprise is the continued trouble the Spurs are in against the upstart Grizzlies. While the Spurs have been fading fast late in the season, home cooking during the playoffs is supposed to cure a lot of ills. But it seems like they are going to suffer the ignominy of losing to the 8-Th seed in the first round. Those upsets are few and far between and the Spurs are the last team I would expect to suffer through that. They still have 2 home games, but they have to win all 3 games to avoid the upset. Looks like Zach Randolph is going to have the last laugh and may be come up with a Dikembe Mutombo type moment after the upset. Or may be he may just light up a joint right there on the court after the win!
The other upset could be the Hawks over the Magic. This is another series where the real winners might actually be the LA Lakers! In the rich get richer World that the Lakers typically live in, there is already rampant speculation that Dwight Howard will bolt the Magic and end up with the Lakers. That would be the perfect, late-career side-kick for Kobe and possibly a great future focal point for the Lakers once Kobe fades away, though I am still not entirely sold on Howard. A defeat in this series will only push Dwight Howard away from the Magic in a hurry, if not towards the Lakers. Of course, my favorite coach Stan Van Gundy will probably lose his job too, but Howard is clearly the bigger piece here. The Hawks are honestly going nowhere, but they may take the Magic down with them. The Magic fans would be really disappointed if they lose Howard to the Lakers after losing Shaq to them many moons ago. But thats exactly how the media is drawing this up. Not sure if the Lakers want him that bad or if thats what Dwight Howard is dreaming about, but the media is actively brokering this marriage. And a first round playoff exit for the Magic will be the perfect engagement gift.
Wednesday, April 27, 2011
Thursday, April 14, 2011
Playoffs for real
The NBA playoffs often has a very predictable cadence and rhythm to it. This is primarily because these series are all 7 games long and more often than not, the better team always comes out on top in a 7-game series. Sure, we always say the playoffs are all about match-ups. But the better team can usually overcome a couple of match-up issues and they will win at the end. The longer series is really fair - given the long, grueling regular season that is the NBA. You don't want a fluke victory to decide the champion after such a long regular season. So demanding the teams to show consistency over a 7-gamer makes perfect sense, though the sudden-death elimination format is really fun and we totally enjoy that in the NCAA tournament and even the NFL. The NBA playoffs are a lot of fun, but you can predict certain games at certain points in this 7-game series rather easily.
For instance, most people probably knew the Lakers are going to win game 2. No team, especially a good one like the Lakers, will lose game 2 at home against a 7-Th seed in the playoffs to go down 0-2. You may ask how did they lose game 1? That would be a great question and Chris Paul is the short answer. But once that game went down, you knew for a fact the Lakers are going to seal game 2. Lakers won't lose in round 1, but even if they do, the Hornets have to beat them in 6 or 7 games and that game 2 belonged to the Lakers. This is what I mean by "predictable cadence" to the playoffs. The only unpredictable part of that game was the dominance of Bynum. He led the Lakers in both points and boards and that may be the best news for the Laker-fan. Health is really wealth with this dude.
The same formula worked for the Spurs-Grizz as Ginobli returned and the Spurs tied the series up. The Spurs are probably more in trouble than the Lakers. They have been visibly aging and fading towards the end of the season much like the Celtics and they may lose the series against a lively Memphis team, but it's not going to be easy for the Grizzlies. It's amazing what this team has done without Rudy Gay, but it's going to end in 7 games against the Spurs. It's funny that the first and second seeds are tied 1-1 in the West while the 3-Rd and 4-Th seeds seem comfortably placed. Of course, I like the saying the series doesn't start until a road team has won. So the Thunder and the Mavs can't get too complacent.
In the East, Celtics - the other old team, has survived the 2 home games. They are up 2-0, but not an impressive showing at all. Carmelo did anything he wanted against the Celtics except win. Now he goes back home and the Knicks should win at least a game. It will be hard for them to win the series without a healthy Amare and Chauncey, but it will be interesting to see how efficient the Celtics are against this team. The top 3 seeds in the East are all up 2-0 and my prediction for a superior Eastern conference playoffs might be happening in the next round. Bulls are going to be hard to deal with, but who better to challenge them than the talented Heat and the veteran Celtics? Of course playing the Pacers in the first round is not going to prepare the Bulls for the real playoffs. Who let the 37-45 Pacers into the big dance? The bottom of the East is still the L-East.
The Phoenix Suns are 3 games better than the Pacers and they have been eliminated from the playoffs for a while in the West. They lost interest and motivation and lost a few more games and are still better than a couple of playoffs team in the L-East. I guess thats how the cookie crumbles. Thanks to the horrible management of Mr. Sarver, Nash is at home while his arch nemesis Mavs are as good as ever and his old coach and running mate are also playoff bound in New York. What a feel good story for Nash and his fans. Speaking of running mates and a "predictable cadence", I expected a loss or two early for Wade and LeBron in this, their first playoff run as a team. But their first round opponent, Philly, is so horrible that the losses have not happened yet. Then again, a word of caution for these 2-0 teams - playoff series really begins only when a team loses a home game.
For instance, most people probably knew the Lakers are going to win game 2. No team, especially a good one like the Lakers, will lose game 2 at home against a 7-Th seed in the playoffs to go down 0-2. You may ask how did they lose game 1? That would be a great question and Chris Paul is the short answer. But once that game went down, you knew for a fact the Lakers are going to seal game 2. Lakers won't lose in round 1, but even if they do, the Hornets have to beat them in 6 or 7 games and that game 2 belonged to the Lakers. This is what I mean by "predictable cadence" to the playoffs. The only unpredictable part of that game was the dominance of Bynum. He led the Lakers in both points and boards and that may be the best news for the Laker-fan. Health is really wealth with this dude.
The same formula worked for the Spurs-Grizz as Ginobli returned and the Spurs tied the series up. The Spurs are probably more in trouble than the Lakers. They have been visibly aging and fading towards the end of the season much like the Celtics and they may lose the series against a lively Memphis team, but it's not going to be easy for the Grizzlies. It's amazing what this team has done without Rudy Gay, but it's going to end in 7 games against the Spurs. It's funny that the first and second seeds are tied 1-1 in the West while the 3-Rd and 4-Th seeds seem comfortably placed. Of course, I like the saying the series doesn't start until a road team has won. So the Thunder and the Mavs can't get too complacent.
In the East, Celtics - the other old team, has survived the 2 home games. They are up 2-0, but not an impressive showing at all. Carmelo did anything he wanted against the Celtics except win. Now he goes back home and the Knicks should win at least a game. It will be hard for them to win the series without a healthy Amare and Chauncey, but it will be interesting to see how efficient the Celtics are against this team. The top 3 seeds in the East are all up 2-0 and my prediction for a superior Eastern conference playoffs might be happening in the next round. Bulls are going to be hard to deal with, but who better to challenge them than the talented Heat and the veteran Celtics? Of course playing the Pacers in the first round is not going to prepare the Bulls for the real playoffs. Who let the 37-45 Pacers into the big dance? The bottom of the East is still the L-East.
The Phoenix Suns are 3 games better than the Pacers and they have been eliminated from the playoffs for a while in the West. They lost interest and motivation and lost a few more games and are still better than a couple of playoffs team in the L-East. I guess thats how the cookie crumbles. Thanks to the horrible management of Mr. Sarver, Nash is at home while his arch nemesis Mavs are as good as ever and his old coach and running mate are also playoff bound in New York. What a feel good story for Nash and his fans. Speaking of running mates and a "predictable cadence", I expected a loss or two early for Wade and LeBron in this, their first playoff run as a team. But their first round opponent, Philly, is so horrible that the losses have not happened yet. Then again, a word of caution for these 2-0 teams - playoff series really begins only when a team loses a home game.
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