Tuesday, April 10, 2018

Intriguing Spring

The NCAA tournament is now in the books. We will all miss sister Jean, but won't miss the mediocre Final 4 games on the court. Villanova was too good for the Michigan team in the Finals and even for Kansas in the semis which made the marquee games boring to watch. Sister Jean carried the tournament all by herself though the earlier rounds were pretty interesting including a never-before-seen 16 over 1 upset. The tournament is always fun mostly because of the unknown and the crazy upsets, but at the end of three weeks, it's always the so-called blue bloods that win it all. The only drama is which higher seed will win. For all the hype and love around upsets and Cinderella's, it's Kansas or Duke or North Carolina or Villanova or Kentucky or Michigan State winning it all. Couple of them will lose in the first weekend, couple more in the second weekend and one of them will win it all. What makes it fun I guess is, we just don't know which ones from the list falls in which bucket each year.

Villanova this year adopted the NBA's three-point revolution and Steph Curry'ed their way to a championship. They killed Kansas in the semis with 18 threes to win it going away. It has been fascinating to watch the spread of the 3-ball in the NBA and looks like the NCAA is following in their footsteps now. The Steph Curry effect on the younger generation is only going to make this better or worse, depending on your perspective, at all levels of basketball. Curry is the ultimate symbol of the 3-ball, though many teams including our 7-seconds or less Suns, the Stan Van Gundy Orlando Magic, and the current era of Daryl Morey Rockets have all accelerated the 3-ball revolution to different levels. But Curry is the singular star who is inspiring a generation of shooters and as different as the game looks today, it's going to look very different in another 10 years. I am curious to see where the 3-ball takes us, especially the college basketball, as I do expect a course correction at some point.

Speaking of Curry, he is currently MIA in the NBA and the Warriors are still inconsistently meandering into the playoffs even as the league is barreling towards what is shaping up as a crazy playoffs. The playoffs, especially in the West, has always been competitive the last few years, but the twist this year is, the teams from 4 to 10 are bunched up and we have no clue what the matchups are going to be even with just a few days left in the regular season. The Rockets are ahead of the Warriors by a bunch of games thanks to all the injuries the Dubs have suffered through the last few weeks. The guys for the Dubs are beginning to come back except for Curry and last week's win at OKC was impressive and as big a regular season statement as you can expect from a 2-time champion. Of course, they followed that up with 2 bad losses against the Pacers and the Pelicans. With all that said, they are still the team to beat. I expect the playoffs to be much tougher and tighter for them this year than last, but they have the talent to get this done.

The Rockets look scary good, but can they do it in the playoffs? Harden, Paul, and even coach D'Antoni are haunted by several playoff demons. It's only fair that the World is telling them "show me before I can trust you". We used to think the style the Rockets play is not a good fit for the playoffs, but those days are long gone. Almost all the teams play that style to some degree today and thats not a concern anymore. However, this cast of characters have to show us they can win the big one. No need to hand them the throne now. They will get enough opportunites with home court on their side to earn it. They may, but they have to go through the Warriors. The story is similar in the East. Cleveland Cavliers look headed to another finals despite all thier flaws and troubles. LeBron seeems energized by the new group around him and he is still the King. With injuries to Boston and Raptors continuing to lose to the Cavs, I wouldn't be shocked to see LeBron make it to his 8th straight finals. The Sixers maybe as big a challenge to them as any of the other teams in the LEast.

Spring also means the start of the baseball season. Giancarlo Stanton kicked off his Yankee career with a couple of majestic home runs, but is already getting booed in the Bronx. I guess thats his welcome to NYC moment. The real story of the season so far Shohei Ohtani, the Japanese Babe Ruth. That dude is legit and a great storyline for MLB to have in it's back-pocket, especially early in the season. At the end of the day, the Houston Astros will be the team to beat, not just this year, but for the foreseeable future. Houston may become the sports capital of the country if the Rockets dethrone the Dubs. The Astros have started the season in style. I don't have big hopes for either the DBacks in the NL or the A's in the AL, but I will be following them closely as there are some positive signs with both teams for the future. Not to be left behind the sports that are in-season, the NFL off-season has been active and interesting as always. It's not even draft day yet, but the league is making it's presence felt.

NFL Teams trade a tad bit more the last couple of years and that adds more juice to the league. The Pats traded away Brandin Cooks recently to the Rams for a first round pick. As always, nobody knows what the Hoodie is up to, but we know he is up to some good. The story this off-season has been the Rams. They are loading up. The new model in the NFL seems to be to load up when you have a stud QB in a cheap contract. When you draft a QB and he turns out good, you have him on the cheap for a few years while he is on his rookie contract. It's smart to go for the kill right then and use that cap room to load up on talent instead of waiting for the QB to mature and get better. Don't wait because, once that QB becomes a free agent, you have to dedicate a huge portion of the cap to him. It becomes harder to build an awesome team around him. Seattle with a cheap Russell Wilson back in the day and Philly last year with a cheap Carson Wentz were both hugely successful examples of that strategy.

Rams are trying the same strategy in 2018 with a decent, but cheap Jared Goff at QB and a playoff caliber team. By adding Ndamikan Suh, Aaquib Talib, Marcus Peters, and Brandin Cooks, Rams are pretty much the early super bowl favorite. It's also smart on their part to set themselves up with bright stars like that for the new stadium in LA, a city where star power matters more than anywhere else. The one big story left now before the draft is Odell Beckham Jr. There are rumors that the Pats will go after OBJ with those draft picks. I doubt that. There are also some rumors that the Niners want OBJ. That is more believable given that they are locked in an amazing arms race with the Rams that the Rams are clearly winning. These two teams are both pretty hyped in the NFC West right now, but the Niners don't have the "cheap QB" advantage that the Rams have. Lets see if the handsomely rich and richly handsome Jimmy Geezus can elevate the niners to a place consistent with the off-season hype. Happy to note that Seattle is probably on the way down and sadly, so are my Arizona Cardinals.

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