Sunday, May 14, 2017

Law of enlarging returns.

There is always great expectation before the start of all playoffs, especially in the NBA. But once it starts, you always feel bit of a letdown. It's only natural as nothing in life is as great as we expect it to be before it happens. Except for LeBron James' career that is. The law of diminishing returns eventually kicks in. So, every year, I get jacked up before the NBA playoffs and then when it starts, it is usually great and I enjoy every bit of it. But I do feel just a little bit of a letdown in the early rounds. I call it human nature. But there is nothing "human nature" about the early rounds of this year's playoffs. It's been truly disappointing and a blowout-fest to the point that even Charles Barkley, who works the TV shows covering these playoffs and has every incentive to keep our collective butts in front of the TV, calls it the worst playoffs ever.  There has been several reasons for this. Number one, the dominance of the Cavs and the Warriors in either league and the inability of any team to even come close to challenging them. They are both sitting pretty at 8-0 going into the conference finals. But it's more than just the sweeps.

Typically, playoff games are competitive. I remember several sweeps even going back to the Michael Jordan years where the team will win the series 4-0 but every game would be a 2 to 5 point nail-baiter. This year is exactly the opposite. Not only are the Dubs and Cavs winning their games by 20 points, even closer series that take 6 or 7 games are featuring a bunch of blowouts. I blame it on the 3-point shot. There has been a lot of talk about the pros and cons the 3-point shot and how it is changing the game. I like the new NBA. But the underrated aspect of the 3-point shot might be the impact it has on victory margins, especially in the playoffs.  Somebody will study this soon. While the 3-point shot makes it easy to mount a 26-point comeback like the Cavs did against the Pacers in round 1, it also inspires a lot of 26 point blowouts. I was really excited for OKC-Houston and even the Portland-Warriors round 1 matchups, but both were duds. Portland never really challenged the Warriors after a half and Houston won easily in 5. The Boston-Washington series in round 2 is giving us a game 7 tomorrow, but they have only given us 2 good games out of the 6 so far. No complaints though since those 2 games were terrific and probably the best in these playoffs so far.

As the field narrows, the dominance of the Cavs and Dubs is expected to continue and the inevitability of their finals matchup looms large with a threat of the Dubs crushing the Cavs in the finals. Basically, there are 2 great teams, out of which one is a historically special team. That skews the whole setup. But fear not. I expect the conference finals to be competitive. Boston or Washington will have something to offer to the Cavs, whether its Boston's defense and toughness or Washington's speed and athleticism. The real story though is in the West. We have been waiting for and even ridiculously blaming the Warriors for missing the Spurs in the playoffs the last 2 seasons. They lock horns starting today. The Spurs are no match to the Dubs in terms of talent on paper, but you know Pop and Kwahi won't go down easy. They will show us new wrinkles and expose hitherto unknown weaknesses in the Dubs to give us decent theater. At least, it will be different from watching the Rockets go down to the Dubs again in the playoffs. If the Cavs stay the course in the East and meet the Dubs in the finals, that will be competitive too despite the Dubs being the better team. Look where that got the Warriors in last year's finals! And even if the Celtics get past the Cavs (and the Wizards), they are one of the few teams that give the Dubs some trouble.

Long story short, playoffs are going to get better and give us better returns starting today. I don't think the Dubs go 16-0. They go 8-3 the rest of the way to win it all. I will leave it to the reader to decide which series goes 4-2 and which one goes 4-1 :-) Hint: look at the order in which I mentioned 4-2 and 4-1. A record of 8-3 doesn't scream exciting basketball, but better than what we have seen so far in these playoffs. I will gladly take it and so should you.