Dubs Dynasty

The Warriors wrapped it up in 5 like I had predicted at the start of the finals. Me and 2 billion others called it the same way of course. It was really a no-contest at the end, but a riveting finals nonetheless. The reasons for the excitement were a few different things. The fact that there was history between these two teams meeting in the finals for the third straight year was a huge factor. Also, the monumental collapse of the Warriors last year gave folks false hope and anxiety depending on which side you were and made this contest look a lot closer than it really was. I have never seen a more nervous fanbase of a team that was up 3-0 and then 3-1 in a series returning home for a game 5 than this version of the Dubs fans. They were a lot more confident for game 7 last year than they were for game 5 this year! Last but not the least, the star power in the series and the great play by all of those stars made it worth the watch. Finals MVP Durant was unstoppable the entire series and so was MVK (Most Valuable King) James. Curry was great too, except for game 4, and so was Kyrie except for the first 2 games. We got to see basketball at a very high level. Hope we all appreciate that we saw LeBron become the first player to average a triple-double in the finals with a 33.6 points, 12 rebounds and 10 assists series. 

There was a lot of talk about how the quality of play and the level of talent on display in these finals were off the charts. It sure was in my eyes too. We know that just the Dubs roster features 4 of the top 15 talents in the NBA today, possibly 4 hall-of-famers. And then you add one of the best players in the history of the game in LeBron James and another 2 All-Stars on the Cavs roster, you got some serious heat on the floor. One of the major reasons why the games looked so impressive was the style of play in vogue in the NBA today. Both these teams like to go up and down the floor shooting 3's and they did shoot real well in this series. All of that made the talent in this series look way more impressive than the matchups I had seen in the last 15 years or so. However, there is also a definite recency bias in all our assessment as this is not the first rodeo for the NBA Finals, which always features top teams by design. For instance, how much more talent did we really see here compared to the Bird-Magic finals or the MJ-Magic or even the MJ-Malone/Stockton finals? Hard to quantify, but this one was fun. The other reason we focused more on the talent in this one was because of the recent emergence of the "super team" concept. The older "super teams" were mostly built organically and we didn't obsess about the collection of talent on the floor all that much.

It sure was a riveting trilogy and the TV ratings bear that out. But the domination of these 2 teams through the playoffs meant lot fewer games and lower eyeballs on the TV overall for the NBA and the TV channels. I totally expect a 4th installment of this rivalry next year. LeBron is going to push for some upgrade of his roster and we may have an even better matchup next year. Boston with all it's assets is the only serious threat to dethroning the King in the LEast, but even they may be a year away from things coming together nicely. Dubs-Cavs it is for 2018. The question is, how and what does the King force the Cavs to do this off-season? They don't have a lot of flexibility, but may be able to trade Kevin Love. It would be a mistake to trade him for somebody like Carmelo, but will be an upgrade if they can score Paul George. I bring up Melo only because LeBron is friends with him. So is CP3. But I won't trade Kyrie for CP3. Kyrie is not a prototypical PG and doesn't play great D, but it is still going to be hard to get a better side-kick for LeBron than Ka. He is an amazing offensive force as he showed all finals. Plus CP3 is older and injury prone.

There is also a Boogie Cousins rumor for Love. Out of all the rumors, the one that should scare the Dubs most is Paul George ending up with LeBron. They would get somebody who can guard Durant and is also a well-rounded and tall offensive player. But can they still play well together and challenge the Dubs, who play great team ball to expertly mesh all the talent they have? The Cavs will have 3 great 1-on-1 players if PG joins them and they can take turns scoring. That should help when LeBron goes to the bench. The Cavs outscored the Dubs in many of the stretches when LeBron was on the floor and still lost the series 4-1. Thats an amazing +/- for the King and having PG on the floor during those times will be a huge upgrade. The problem is, Ty Lue and the Cavs culture may still play 1-on-1 ball with all 3 and it will be up to the King to involve everybody and bring this together. It's also easy to under-estimate Love's rebounding. PG can't rebound the same way. At least PG plays D. With Melo, you lose both the rebounds and don't upgrade the D either. There was a stretch in game 3, which Steve Kerr specifically called out in the presser, when Love got 3 offensive rebounds and completely dominated the Dubs and almost stopped their momentum. Cavs must tread cautiously with Love. However, LeBron will make the calls and he has to live or die with it.

The season is over, the finals are over, and even the parade is now done. The Dubs did it. Their entire roster now feels like headed for free agency. So it will be a fun off-season for the Dub nation to see who they re-sign and surround the big 4 with. Curry will finally break the bank. It was nice to see KD publicly offer to take just a little less to enable the team to make a competitive offer to Iggy and Livingston. Both may get great offers from other teams too. Let's see how this plays out. You can never fault the players for maximizing their earning potential. Both those guys are probably looking at the last major contract of their careers. Livingston especially deserves every dime after almost losing his leg in that horrific injury earlier in his career. Overall, the Dubs are in a good spot. The team will look different, but the front office has been immensely successful the last 5 years and it will be interesting as a basketball fan to see how they cobble up another team around the big 4. Special shout-out to David West for taking much less money to go through a championship experience. He got it done and was a key contributor as well.

I am really surprised and impressed with folks like West giving up their role and money to win a championship. I can see super-stars wanting the ring as winning a Finals MVP is a huge boost to KD's legacy for instance. But West winning this as a bench player is not a life changing event, but they still appreciate and chase that ring. I respect that! Not sure how many of us will give up serious money for a championship ring. West declined a 12 mill option with the Pacers last year to join the Spurs for 1.5 million. He then signed a similar contract with the Dubs this year. And his quote about how "you can't take the treasure with you as Egyptians learned" was a classic. Probably the best post-finals moment, way better than all the real or fake twitter wars between Draymond and LeBron. Speaking of, LeBron's take that he has never been a part of a super-team was ridiculous! He and his Heatles buddies were the creator the whole concept. Thats why what he did was so much worse than Durant. Without LeBron's precedent, the whole idea of Durant joining the Warriors might have not even crossed the minds of Draymond or Durant or anybody. LeBron is the pioneer of the concept and he has to forever share some of the blame for these other super-teams in this era.

I can't believe I am saying this, but I agree with Stephen A in that, from Duran't personal perspective, his move was weaker or a easier way out than what LeBron did. Joining a 73-win team is an easy way out. But thats not the point and I am not too worried about Durant as an individal. He can take care of himself and his own legacy and I don't care about that all that much. But in terms of what it means to the NBA as a league and it's competitive balance, LeBron's move was much worse because he set a precedent that folks like Durant can follow. What LeBron did was repeatable and stars are trying to hook-up every off-season these days. Sometimes they are successful, sometimes they are not, but they all seem to try. On the other hand, Durant joining the Warriors was a unique situation created by a confluence of a few lucky breaks for the Dubs that may never happen again. The salary cap doesn't jump 35% every year. The 2-time MVP of the league (Curry) rarely enters that same season as the 82nd highest player in the league, thus enabling the team to chase another superstar with all that extra cap money. Without these two major aberrations, I don't think KD joins the Dubs. This obviously impacts the competitive balance in the short-term, but I am not worried about the long-term impact of this KD move. LeBron's move to Miami and even back to Cleveland with Kevin Love was different, more repeatable, and lethal development for the league. With all that said, super teams are here to stay in 2018 and we can only hope somebody steps up to challenge the Dubs. My smart money is still on the King and the Cavs.

Ka is Key

I heard in a podcast that the nickname for Kyrie Irving in his inside circle is Ka. Whatever his name is, he is the key to the rest of the NBA finals. He is the one who won them last year's finals too. I am not saying this just because he hit that game winner in game 7. But what he did throughout that game 7 and earlier in game 5 when both LeBron and him scored 41 each to will the Cavs to a victory was sensational. That was the turning point in the series. They could not have come back from 3-1 and won that series without Kyrie and the 41 he dropped in that game 5. LeBron is great and is the heart and soul, but as great as LeBron is, he can't do it alone. Not last year against that talented Dubs team and definitely not this year against the even more loaded Dubs roster. So LeBron absolutely needs Kyrie. The guy is unstoppable even against a great defender like Klay. And when he is in that mode, Dubs are in trouble. Kyrie has been that good in game 3 and 4 in Cleveland this year much like games 5 and 7 last year. Also, in game 4 against Boston in the previous round this season. He was not that great in games 1 and 2 of this finals and the Dubs won both easily. So, the Dubs better have an answer to Ka if they want a parade in Oakland this year.

Kyrie is not LeBron, but is a difference maker. Thats because LeBron's 30-10-10 is already accounted for. We might as well put that in the game 5 box score right now. He has been ridiculous throughout these playoffs and the finals and we all take his performance for granted. The guy is averaging almost a 32-12-10 in these finals and we don't even talk about him that much. And even with that, the Dubs dominated the series over the first 3 games. But once Kyrie got in on the act, Dubs have had their hands full. Through the nineties and early aughts, NBA was all about individual superstars playing isolation and 1-on-1 ball. It was fun watching MJ do it, but it got boring at some point and the league became a drag. The game opened up, thanks in part to some rule changes and thanks in part to teams like the CWebb-Kings and the Nash-Suns. They revolutionized the game, especially the mid-aughts Suns. Now, the Dubs have taken that Suns' style to a 'hole 'nother level with superstar talent up and down the roster, robust team defense, passing, and deadly 3-point shooting. Even with all that in place, even in this day and age, sensational 1-on-1 talents like LeBron and Kyrie can cause so much havoc.

No wonder stars always had the reputation of having all the power and basically running the NBA because individual talent impacts this game so much even against a well-oiled offensive and defensive juggernaut like the Warriors. Kyrie can again be a thorn on the Dubs side the rest of the way starting with game 5 tonight. Dub-nation has to be slightly nervous after what happened last year. It's again 3-1. Sure, it was 3-0 and then 3-1 unlike last year, but there are some similarities. The smart money for game 5 is still very much on the Dubs. It's basically the same matchup, except the Dubs have added  to that game 5 roster Durant and Draymond, who was suspended for last year. Thats a huge upgrade and even without them two, it took a sensational 41 point night from both LeBron and Kyrie for the Cavs to win last year. The chances are, those 2 are going to bring it again, but just like in game 3, the Dubs may still have enough to wrap this up. If not, oh boy! They will be in a lot of hurt! The pressure will be intense and they will probably lose game 6 on the road to force another game 7 at home under immense pressure with the Cavs knowing and feeling like they can win a game 7 at Oakland just like they did last year. The Dubs don't want it.

So, they better wrap this up today. This is why KD came to town and if he can't finish this, this whole season will be a bigger bust than last year when the Dubs won 73 regular season game and blew the finals. Few things in the world live up to the hype. There are 2 things in this series that have exceeded the highest of expectations. One, the entire career of LeBron James. No one was more hyped as a teenager and very few have delivered more as an adult than LJ. The other hyped up event that has played according to the script is KD joining the Dubs to make this a super-team. Some super-teams don't work out, but this one has worked out to perfection. They made it to the finals and were 3-0 and are now 3-1. They better finish that to make this a storybook ending. The longer this series goes, the more pressure on the Dubs. They have to contain LJ and Ka to wrap this one. One of the under-rated aspects of this 3-point driven league today is, how it's harder to double team stars. They are just going to kick it out to the shooters and you may give up 3 instead of 2. So, you have to single-cover the LeBrons and the Kyries of the world and hope a great defender like Klay can slow them down. Thats what the Dubs will do, but they need more than hope to drive this to the ground in game 5. They just might get it done.

Almost a sweep

The third installment of Cavs versus Warriors in the NBA finals starts tomorrow. Pretty much the entire World penciled this matchup in back in November. Of course, it took us 7 months and God knows how many games to actually get to this finals. Usually, at least the playoff games along the way are interesting. Not so much this year. The Dubs are 12-0 and the Cavs are 12-1 after 3 round of playoffs. I predicted a competitive conference finals, but that was not to be. Kwahi and Isaiah's injuries took away whatever little intrigue and challenge was left in the conference finals. This leaves us with these finals as the only hope for an intriguing playoff contest this season. This is the first time the same teams have met in 3 straight NBA finals and that tells you how rare and good these 2 teams are.

We needed this matchup for a fair and equal contest if not for anything else. The first year they met, LeBron carried the Cavs without Kyrie and Love and almost shocked the Warriors. Then, last year, the Warriors dealt with the Draymond suspension and a banged up Curry in addition to Iggy and Bogut's injuries mid-series. So, though this is the third time they are meeting in the finals, this is really the first time both rosters as constructed are engaging in a healthy contest. Hope it stays that way through the series. My heart almost stopped when Kyrie twisted his ankle and went to the ground against Boston. Luckily, he not only got up, but dominated that quarter and the subsequent quarters in that series. He looks ready to roll and so does LeBron who has had an amazing playoffs this year.

The Warriors are clearly the better team, but the Cavs are the closest and the most serious competition. Curry had a very mediocre finals last year and the Warriors still were dominating until game 5 when Draymond got suspended. Thats how good the Warriors team is and they have added Durant to the mix. So it's almost stupid to pick against them in these finals. But this is sports and last year's finals showed us that anything can happen. If anybody has a shot against these Aarriors, it's this Cavs team. The Cavs are a super-team themselves and are the closest to the Warriors in terms of talent. Kyrie steps up against the Warriors and Curry to make it even more equal. Last but not the least, the Cavs have the best player on the court in the form of LeBron whenever they suit-up against whoever including these Warriors and the best player makes more of an impact in basketball than any other sport.

Given all that, this has a chance to become another epic finals like last year. But it also can end up being a sweep because these Warriors are so good. I think the biggest challenge for the Warriors is going to be mental if these games get tight. They have not been challenged a lot all season and a close game this late in the season might stress them out in new ways that they may not be entirely comfortable with. More importantly, it may bring some bad memories from last year and even the Christmas day matchup. A close game with the ball in Kyrie's hands will be the dubs worst nightmare. That may be the Cavs' best hope in this series - force a few close games and see if the Dubs crack under the pressure as LeBron and Kyrie execute flawlessly. Easier said than done against these Dubs. So I call this for the Warriors 4-1.

The Dubs are going to go for a sweep. I believe thats the new challenge they will be chasing now after all that happened last year. They won't talk about it, but thats the mindset they are going in with. It's going to be hard for the Dubs to sweep just because of everything this matchup brings including LeBron. It's his 7th finals and thats an amazing feat. Given the one week gap leading into game 1, all of the angles for this matchup has been a bit over-analyzed much like the Super Bowl. One common topic was whether LeBron will be ranked higher than Jordan if he wins this one. Interesting question, but let him get there first before we start breaking that down. The other topic that has been over-thought and analyzed is whether the best starting 5 from both teams combined will actually have 3 Cavs factoring in the positions? I don't think so. It still has to be Curry, Klay, LeBron, Draymond, and Tristan. Some folks are giving the PG spot to Kyrie over Curry and manufacturing some excitement by making a case for the Cavs starting lineup being better. Real cute and nice try! You can slice and dice it anyways, but 4-1 for the Warriors it is.