Wednesday, February 28, 2018

NBA reforms

NBA is in full swing. It's pretty much the only sport in town since the Super Bowl and until baseball starts up. We are past the three-quarters point, though we are barely past the all-star break. The All-star break is only a half way point for the two teams that make it to the NBA finals in June. For the rest of the league, the season is more like three-quarters done by the break, especially with the season starting earlier this year. There has been many interesting storylines in the league including an All-star game which was more competitive and better played than usual. Not sure how and why the new format helped the competitive spirit, but it seemed to have done the trick. I think it's more because of the guys putting in better defensive effort after all the criticism last year and also probably after personal requests from the Commish himself and the league office. It was a better watch than usual for sure.

The major story coming out of the break was about the league being open to playoff reforms including seeding the teams 1-16 across both the conferences. The other big idea is to introduce some sort of single elimination play-in games to lock up the last few playoff seeds. I have heard multiple versions of this with the more official version seems to suggest a play-in among seeds 7-10 in each conference for the final 2 spots. I actually like Bill Simmons' suggestion to have a play-in tournament for all of the bottom 8 teams in both conferences for that last spot. I think this will be the only approach that will curtail tanking, which is the other issue that the league wants to reform. A 7-thru-10 play-in will have zero impact on tanking. Not that a play-in tournament is the only way to fix tanking, but it will definitely be a fun way to fix it and a partial 7-10 play-in won't get it done.

Also, a full-fledged play-in tourney across 16 teams and over a week will be more fun and generate enough hype and attention. A 4-team play-in to me is neither here not there. It will be like the NCAA play-in games on Tues/Wed that nobody watches. I think a 16 team tourney will put butts on the seats. I know I will watch the Suns for sure and maybe most of the other games. The only concern with that is, it devalues the regular season. But the NBA regular season has very little integrity even now with all the tanking, back-to-back etc., I don't think a play-in tourney for all teams will make a huge difference to the regular season. It will however make the post-season more fun and can also help reduce the length of the regular season to 74 games or something like that. The league can eliminate back-to-backs and protect the players' health better with a shorter season. A week long play-in tournament can probably make up some of the lost revenue for the owners.

In short, a play-in tournament of some sort can add more excitement, reduce tanking, and reduce the length of the regular season. I think it's coming one way or the other. Commissioner Adam Silver is a revolutionary and will give this a shot soon. On the court, the major story is the race between the Rockets and the Warriors. They are pretty close and the Rockets are actually slightly ahead. This will obviously affect home court, but more importantly, the chatter about the Rockets being a true contender and a real challenger to the Warriors is picking steam. There was a lot of talk pre All-star game about how bad the Warriors looked. They have now won 4 straight since the break while the Rockets have won 14 straight. This will be an interesting race all the way to the Western Conference finals.

I can look at the Rockets in two ways. I can say the Rockets deserve all the respect since they have won a lot of these games to be at the top of the standings ahead of even the mighty Warriors. Rockets deserve respect and recognition for this. But, I can also say that a super-hot Rockets team has barely caught up with s supposedly struggling Warriors. So, who is the better team if they are both at 100%, which they will both be come playoff time as long as there are no injuries? The answer obviously are the Warriors since their upside seems to be much higher. Regardless of how people feel about the Rockets, they are finding it hard to pick them to win it all just because of the lack of playoff success of both James Harden and Chris Paul. So, the Rockets have to earn this one. Not many will pick them until they actually beat the Warriors and prove it. It should be one heck of a last 20+ games and the playoffs in the NBA.

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