Bring on the Cards-season, AKA post-season!

There is always what you think is going to happen and then there is what you want to happen. The title of this article probably give it all away, though I am not sure what part of that is what I think versus what I want. My Super Bowl pick is Arizona Cardinals over the New England Patriots, a matchup supposedly America also wants based on a recent poll on the most exciting potential Super Bowl even over the Seahawks-Pats possibility that was awesome last year. I may be biased in favor of the Cards, but they are definitely capable and poised to make a deep run this post-season. It won't be a walk in the park - it never is, especially if they play like they did in week 16 against the Seahawks, but they didn't have much to play for then and they did show us they are way better over the previous 15 weeks. So I am going to cut them some slack. As for the Pats, they have been in a funk too, but I can't imagine the other AFC wannabes unseating Brady and Belichick this season. Thats my prognostication, but thats neither here nor there this weekend because the Super Bowl at Levi is a month away. The first round of the playoffs is kicking off today and these two teams are not even playing this weekend.

The wild card weekend is the best weekend of the NFL playoffs in a lot of ways. We get two games on Saturday and two on Sunday. The divisional round also feature 4 games, but then the well-rested big boys come out and blow fools out sometimes. Wild card weekend on the other hand usually features good, but not great teams and they typically give us closer games. This year's version lacks a little bit of sex appeal due to some new teams and injuries, but the games may be even crazier than usual. This is illustrated by the fact that all four road teams are favored to win this wild card weekend! I am not a gambling junkie, but I really doubt if the lines look like that often. Let's see if Vegas got it right this time, but here are my picks.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Houston Texans: This is probably the toughest game to pick. It involves two teams that have turned their season around and are rolling into the playoffs, but the Chiefs' transformation is a lot more impressive. Neither team has a hall of fame QB and that always makes it hard to dissect, but I pick the Chiefs to win this one on the road. We don't get to see Arian Foster or Jamaal Charles, but we will see a good game here.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals: Andy Dalton has been ruled out of this game and I am not even sure if it's a bad thing given his past post-season performances. All kidding aside, the Bengals will miss him and the Steelers should steal this one. Big Ben and Antonio Brown need to be on their A Game, but they are capable of an A+ game any given day. Ben has not consistently been A+ this season, but has been good enough to put the fear of god in most opponents. They are actually a trendy Super Bowl pick due to that reason. I won't go that far, but the Steelers should win this AFC North matchup, a division which more than any other seem to throw an intra-division wild card contest year in and year out. Those 3rd rivalry game of the season are always fun.

Seattle Seahawks @ Minnesota Vikings: Last week, the Vikings went into Green Bay and rudely snatched the NFC North title from the Packers. What do they get in return? A home playoff game and a lot of money for their owners, but possibly a loss to the surging Seattle Seahawks. They probably would have been better off losing a close game and the division last week and going back into Green Bay this week for a wild-card matchup on the road. The Seahawks look scary good on offense and their defense has not dropped off that much. Russell Wilson has absolutely played at a MVP level the last half of the season and he has reinvented this offense behind his arm and Doug Baldwin's legs. I doubt if any amount of Minnesota cold can stop them. I want the Vikes to win, but Seahwaks will win this one.

Green Bay Packers @ Washington No-Namers: Why are the Packers, who started the season 6-0 and have Aaron Rodgers playing QB, going into Washington to play a wild-card game on the road? This defies explanation except the obvious cliche "football games are won in the trenches." The Packers offensive line has been offensive much like their opponent's nicknames that I try to avoid. This O-line has made Rodgers look shaky and Eddie Lacy look fat! I can't believe I am saying this, but Rodgers is going to lose to Kirk Daniel Cousins this weekend. The Washington players and their leader Cousins might be penny pinchers and cheap off the field (what a cute story that is), but their offense has been prolific and confident on the field. I can't see this Packers team dominating them on either side of the ball. Rogers need to play at a hall-of-fame level to win this one and he absolutely can, but I am picking the No-Namers to win.

There you have it. Four more teams will be gone fishing in a couple of days and lets start the countdown to the Super Bowl.

Pats 30 - Hawks 20

It's been a while since I had the time to blog. Been a busy couple of months, but is there ever a better time to jump back in than around the Super Bowl? Actually, last week would have been better with the "deflate-gate" controversy in full swing. Supposedly, we are expected to stop talking about it and talk only about the game instead. Why? It was a legitimate topic that came up organically last week saving us from all the manufactured Super Bowl hype. I would rather discuss deflate-gate than the media generated "story lines" about these 2 teams, neither of which I am too fond of. How much more of the designer angles like "low draft picks" Brady V Wilson or Pete Caroll's stint in New England would ESPN have subjected us to if not for this scandal? Those stories are interesting if you care about the teams. If not, deflate-gate is as good as it gets.

The controversy itself feels very juvenile at one level, but the fact that this Patriots regime is entering the "repeat offenders" territory makes it very interesting. If the NFL can indeed prove that the Patriots did tamper with the ball, which of course is a BIG "if", hoodie will be in deep trouble given his past history with spy-gate. Thats exactly why Belichick and the Pats are so vociferously and aggressively denying the allegation. If convicted, punishment will be severe. Saints coach Sean Payton, who was suspended for a year for bounty-gate, will have a lot of opinions for the league office on the appropriate punishment for the hoodie. Lots of people are arguing that deflating the ball is not a big help for Brady or that the Pats are good enough to win without it etc. Thats not the point. The point is, if you are deflating the footballs after the refs have checked and approved them, you are cheating. Why would anybody do it if it didn't help? There are some parallels I see here with the steroid controversy with baseball, especially with Barry Bonds. Not that deflate-gate is that serious, but some people said the same type of things about Bonds and steroids. "He was always good", "He didn't need PEDs" etc. The counter argument is pretty simple. If it didn't help, why did he take it? Thats why Bonds is still not in the Hall Of Fame.

As for the Super Bowl itself, I think this controversy will only drive the Pats even more, as if they need any extra motivation. Brady and Belichick are getting up there age-wise and it's all about legacy for them at this stage of their careers. They have lost their last 2 Super Bowls and I am not sure if Russell Wilson can channel his inner Eli Manning and subject the Pats to a third Super Bowl loss. I am afraid the Pats win this one easy, 30 - 20. The Seahawks have to show up better than they did in the first 55 mins of their game against the Packers to even have a shot. If they show up with that weak sauce, they truly run the risk of getting blown out.  This Patriots team is not an amazingly dominant team by any stretch of the imagination, but they have a decent defense, a good running game that they turn on and off at will, and Gronk. All of those things typically cause serious issues for the Seahawks as if dealing with Brady and Belichick is not challenging enough. It might be a mistake to pick against the Seahawks after what they did to Peyton Manning last year and Aaron Rodgers last week, but I am going to do it. The Pats get it done in the big game even with the rightly inflated footballs.

Omaha!

Before the Super Bowl, there was a lot of talk about what the game, or more specifically a loss in the game, would mean to Peyton Manning's legacy. At that time, I agreed with most experts that this game would have minimal impact on his legacy. The man has built a impressive resume over a decade and a half and put up ungodly numbers. He was coming off a record breaking year and if he plays for another couple of years, he is guaranteed to own pretty much all the records for a QB. More importantly, he already has a super bowl ring and it felt like a second ring would be huge, but he would be in the best-ever conversation with or without it. But then again, none of us expected a 43-8 drubbing at the hands of the Seattle Seahawks and their legion of boom. This was not all Manning's fault, but he didn't help a whole lot and he definitely couldn't pull the Broncos out of it. Now, the legacy questions are for real after this unmitigated disaster. QBs are measured by championships and the sheriff has lost 2 of the 3 super bowls he has played in. Even his baby brother has 2 super bowls in the bag. Peyton has some explaining to do.

The game started off ominously for Denver as the first offensive snap sailed over Peyton's head. There was a lot of attention leading up to the game on what Peyton does at the line of scrimmage and all the "omaha" calls he blurts out. And then he couldn't even connect on the first snap. The center hiked the ball when Peyton was still moving around trying to fix things. This gave Seattle a safety and the ball. The Denver offense never found the rhythm and their defense was toothless as always. I am not a big fan of crediting big hits with more impact than just the scope of that one play, but Kam Chancellor’s hit on Demaryius Thomas on the Broncos’ first pass might have been a big tone-setter. The Legion of Boom made a statement right away. Percy Harvin made his mark felt early as well and he actually put the game away with his kickoff return TD at the start of the second half. There was still some hope for the Broncos at 22-0, but Harvin's jets made it 29-0 and it was pretty much curtains at that point. Demaryius Thomas' fumble was another bone-crushing blow to Denver's comeback efforts and they never really got anything going even in garbage time. It was a total domination by the Seahawks defense.

For all the attention the "omaha" audibles got leading up to the game, it became a mockery during the game as the Seattle fans across the country started shouting it at the TV to mock every Broncos mistake on offense. It became their unofficial war-cry as Peyton was rendered ineffective by Seattle's defense. Credit goes to Pete Carroll and his staff for shutting down the most prolific offense. Speaking of legacy, the real legacy this super bowl impacted big-time was Pete Carroll's. The man now has both a college and a pro championship. Thats big! His QB Russell Wilson is a made man now as well with a championship in just his second year. He is not the most effective QB and you could even say he is a little bit over-rated, but he is hard-working and a great decision maker. Clearly, he deserves some if not a lot of credit for the championship, but he will get a lot of credit being the QB. As for Peyton Manning, not sure if he can make it to another Super Bowl given his age. I can only imagine how much more grief he will be taking now if he didn't even have that one ring already. I do expect him to have another season or 2 of stellar QB play, but a second super bowl might be easier said than done. We shall see in 2014.

Can anybody tame the 12-Th man?

Looks like the road to the Super Bowl will definitely go through the 12-Th man and the deafening noise he creates in Seattle. The New Orleans Saints went in there tonight and looked like the old 'Aints. These 2 teams share one thing in common in that they are both nearly unbeatable at home. They are both 6-0 at home and the playoffs in the NFC will be decided by who gets to stay home and who gets to go on the road. It's looking more and more like the Seahawks are going to be at home and that's huge for them. The Saints on the other hand are suddenly tied with the Carolina Panthers for the division lead and they better win that division. The Saints are not a team built to go on the road and create magic in cold weather. They need the dome at least until they have to go in to Seattle again deep in the playoffs. The crazy parity in the NFL has suddenly made the Carolina Panthers a legitimate contender in the NFC south where the Atlanta Falcons are struggling at 3-9. These 2 teams have completely switched roles from what was expected of them in the pre-season. May be the Panthers with that defense will put up a better fight against the Seahawks in the playoffs than what the Saints showed us today. The NFC champion has to come from either of these 2 divisions unless somebody from the mediocre NFC North or East go on a crazy run late in the season.

In the AFC, it appears like the usual suspects will be at it again this winter. Manning is at 10-2 and Brady is sitting at 9-3. Indy and Cincy are not far behind, but they just don't look like a legitimate contender. In fact, neither does New England, but they are getting healthier, continuing to win, and they have Tom Brady. Indy is definitely missing Reggie Wayne and don't look all that dominant anymore. Kansas City was always considered a pretender and they have been proving that the last few weeks, though there is no shame in losing to Denver. The Chiefs stayed close at home and had a shot against the Broncos, but they are clearly not in the same class. It would be interesting if the AFC championship game pits Manning against Brady and if the NFC puts Russell Wilson against Cam Newton. It would be the classic contrast between the old guard and QB royalty on the AFC side and the new guard and a window into the future on the NFC side. Of course these young guns have a lot to prove. NFL's parity will drag them to the dumps in a hurry. Just ask Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan. Only the true legends like Manning, Brady, and Brees are able to resist the ravages of parity and injuries and stay relatively consistent and on top. 

Week 13 in the NFL is significant for another reason. For most fantasy leagues, this is the end of the regular season. Good luck all you ballers. The thanksgiving weekend also featured some great college games. The iron bowl between Auburn and Alabama was an instant classic and people are still talking about it well into Tuesday. Auburn won the game by returning a missed field goal all the way back for a TD on the last play of the game. Tough way to lose a shot at a national championship for Alabama, but I am  not shedding any tears for a SEC team. Saban's decision to go for a field goal was of course the right call, it just backfired on him. We got another BCS mess on our hands, but I don't mind seeing some new teams in the championship game. Ohio State escaped against Michigan much to my chagrin in another close rivalry game. The NBA season is also in full flow and my Phoenix Suns are surprisingly not bad at all. It looks like the Indiana Pacers might be able to challenge the Miami Heat for real. Who would have thought a Indiana Pacers, Portland Trail Blazers game in early December will feature a 16-1 and 14-3 teams. But then again, it is still early December and there is a long way to go before we know if anybody can really challenge the Heat in May and June.

Quarterbacks running wild

Just like that, 25% of the NFL regular season is in the books. After 4 games, Denver, Seattle, New Orleans, Kansas City, and New England are all 4-0. Not a whole lot of surprises there except Kansas City. Seattle and New England were Peter King's Super Bowl pick in the pre-season. But after watching the Patriots in the first game or two, I have to say they are a bit of a surprise. They are a little thin and injured at the receiver position and the offense looked shaky and anemic at times in the early going. With Gronk and Amendola coming back from injuries and the rookie receivers improving, I thought the Pats will improve later in the season, but they are 4-0 already with the fourth win coming on the road against a good Atlanta team yesterday. Kudos to the usual suspects Brady and Belichick for keeping the flag of excellence flying high in foxboro. Speaking of usual suspects, Brees and Peyton Manning are on fire as always and are carrying their teams and their fantasy owners to incredible heights. These guys wake up from bed and throw for 4 TDs on a whim! That level of quarterbacking and translates to a 4-0 record in today's NFL pretty seamlessly.

Seattle is the only team in the 4-0 list that is built more on old school values like defense and a running game. They are the most complete team and they also have a solid QB in Russell Wilson and a great home field advantage. That makes them a super bowl favorite especially after dismantling the Niners two weeks back. After the first 4 games of the season, my pick for the Super Bowl is Denver V Seattle. The most surprising 4-0 team is Kansas City and kudos to Andy Reid and Alex Smith for turning the culture there overnight. I still don't consider them a legitimate contender though. As injuries pile up, team chemistry improves, and the weather gets colder, new forces will emerge in the NFL, but these 4-0 teams will stay in contention all season.  If you are looking for fascinating match-ups in the near future, look for Peyton Manning's visit to Indy and New England. Those are potential playoff previews with a side of QB drama that should tell us a lot about how this season will turn out. The elite teams that we expected to join this list, but struggling right now are the Houston Texans and Atlanta Falcons at 1-3.

The 0-4 list is very surprising to say the least. New York Giants and Pittsburgh Steelers headline this list and even Tampa Bay was supposed to be way better than their 0-4 start. Bucs QB Josh Freeman has lost his job to rookie Mike Glennon and rightfully so. Jacksonville is the other team that's staying true to it's form, but somehow Blaine Gabbert still has a job. Even his third year QB batch-mate Christian Ponder is in a little bit of a trouble with Matt Cassel coming in for him as an injury replacement and doing very well. Minnesota, Houston, Green Bay, San Francisco, and Atlanta are some of the teams that has the talent and were hoping to be better record-wise at this point. But some of those teams will be there at the end. I am a little surprised they are burning Matt Schaub's jersey already in Houston. He did throw that horrible interception, but where is the love and the loyalty? Our sports culture is so different and on edge these days. It's no surprise fans in Oakland were booing Matt Flynn at every chance they got. Raider fans were clamoring for Pryor like he is the second coming of Peyton Manning. To be fair to the Raider fans, Flynn was pretty bad and if Schaub is in so much trouble after all that he has done, Flynn doesn't stand a chance.

NFC Best

Parity is the word that makes NFL great. Lots of good things come out of parity, though it does have some negatives like it enables mediocrity across the league more than greatness in some teams. But one of the things parity leads to is last-to-first and first-to-last transformation of teams overnight. As rosters are bunched together so closely on the talent-scale, an addition here or a subtraction there of a couple of talented players or even some solid experience can alter the NFL landscape dramatically. This is why we see a whole bunch of new teams making the playoffs every season. The best example of this phenomenon this year is the NFC West. This conference was the worst just 2 years back. Seattle won it with an unheard of 7-9 record in 2010. A rookie quarterback, Sam Bradford, in a bad team almost won that division that year. Then in 2011, Seattle moved sideways, St. Louis took a step back, and Arizona went nowhere like they have been doing since Kurt Warner hung up his cleats. Jim Harbaugh grabbed the division by it's throat and made the niners the team to beat.

But this season, the NFC West has been the best division in all of football. Everybody expected the niners to be a Super Bowl contender. The seahawks were expected to be slightly better.  We knew Jeff Fisher will make the rams better, but not right away and we didn't know what to expect of the cardinals. Fast forward to the here and now, this division has the most wins in all of football - 15, with 3 teams tied with a 4-2 record at the top before the Thursday night game. The niners are still an elite team, their embarrassing loss to the New York giants last weekend notwithstanding. I am not even sure if there is anything embarrassing at all in any kind of loss to the Tom Coughlin and Eli Manning led giants. They are still the most under-rated coach-QB combo in the league. The seahawks and the cards are much better than originally expected and the rams have improved dramatically, at least on the defensive side. And all these teams will have some staying power through the season since they are all built on solid defense. All the offenses in this division are shaky, but defense wins championships and defense doesn't disappear easily either.

The niners-seahawks game tonight took on an added meaning because of the records and how difficult this division is expected to play the rest of the season. The game was a defensive struggle as expected, but the physical running game of both teams had some success against the other defense. It was fun watching Marshawn Lynch and Frank Gore run wild on great defenses, but that's what winning teams do. Frank Gore ended up with the better numbers and the niners won the game, but this game is going to repeat itself multiple times this season as the niners, cards, rams, and seahawks defenses lock horns. This was the niners first division game of this season, though the seahawks are already done with all of their road, divisional games. Nice win for the niners before they go in to the desert for a Monday night showdown with the cards. This game was a little bit of a letdown for the Seahawks after their impressive win over Tom Brady and the Patriots, but this season is still going according to plan for them for the most part. Their quarterback Russell Wilson is no joke. I have been waiting for him to lose his job to Matt Flynn, but he is a fighter and is here to stay.

In baseball, yankees lose, the-e-e-e yankees lose!

NFL Replaced!

The thing replacement referees are replacing very effectively is all the on-field stories happening in the NFL. They are the singular story right now in all of sports, especially this Monday night when one of their calls decided and ended the game. Considering this game involved 2 good NFC teams, both looking to be playoff bound, that call could very well have a significant impact on this entire NFL season. With all that said, my summary of this issue is as follows. I am not completely on board with the theory that this call conclusively proves that the replacement refs are responsible for everything that ails our society from cancer to world hunger. The reason I say this is because everybody makes mistakes and this particular "simultaneous possession" call is not that easy where we can assume the regular refs would have nailed it. I can easily see the regulars missing this too. Plus, the replay review didn't help here either due to a variety of reasons. So beating up the replacement refs is not the point of this incident for me. Of course, there are several other calls over the last 3 weeks that are more worthy of beating these refs with than this particular one. But if the point is beating the NFL up at a philosophical level over this whole fiasco, then I am 100% on board.

The important point here is, the referees are a very significant part of this game and the league has woefully underestimated both their importance to the game and the difficulty of their jobs. Today, a call decided a game and possibly playoff positioning and this is what the NFL has been claiming and assuming will never happen. It can no more deny the fact that the referees are way too important and the league has to get it's act together and employ the best referees running their games. It's no different than having the best players playing in this league as opposed to some high-school kids. These replacement referees are trying their best and have the best of intentions, but they are put in a difficult situation. The game is fast, the pressure is unrelenting, and the scrutiny is intense for these referees. They are rookies with no experienced shoulders to lean on.The problem is not them, but it's the league that thinks these refs are more than enough to police these games. Even I thought the concerns over player's health because of these replacement referees were a little over-stated, but the calls they make do decide these games and it's no joke. After seeing how skirmishes are breaking out all over the field because the players think the refs are too scared to throw flags on them, I am coming around on the safety issue too.

In this day and age of twitter and 24 hours talk radio, there is so much negative focus on these guys and the issue is over-hyped. But the underlying message is simple and valid - NFL needs to fix this issue NOW. It is totally taking away from the action on the field, which is always great in the NFL, but has been especially entertaining in the early part of this season. Take for instance this Monday night game. The Seattle Seahawks defense was spectacular and they sacked Aaron Rodgers 8 times in the first half. The Packers offense definitely don't look the same and have some issues. But they showed us why they are still a great team when they came back in the second half and started moving the ball behind a new game-plan - no-huddle and running with Cedric Benson. They went ahead and would have won but for the bad call at the end, which may not have even been  the worst call of the game. There was a roughing the passer and pass interference call - both also against the Packers, that were also controversial. It was a good game culminating an awesome, but now controversial NFL weekend. The NFC West looks like the best division in all of football as Arizona is one of 3 teams in the entire NFL that are still 3-0. The Niners lost a bad one in Minnesota, but they are still good and between them, Arizona and Seattle, it should be a fun, tough, defensive struggle out west. Hopefully we will have real referees calling these games this fall.