Predictable Four

Miami  versus Indiana in the East and San Antonio versus Oklahoma City in the West. Couldn't we all have guessed this at the beginning of the season? If there is one issue with the NBA, it's the predictability. Even with the ridiculously surprising first round of the playoffs this year, NBA is still the most predictable of all the leagues. NBA season is long and the playoffs are seven game series. This makes sure the best teams always bubble up. NFL seasons are shorter and the playoff games are obviously one game elimination contests. But thats not even the real reason for the parity, which has always been one of NFL's big charm. Very few Super Bowl champions even get back to the big game next year and the Super Bowl losers are typically lucky to even make it back to the playoffs. NFL's rigid salary cap and the large sizes of rosters are what makes it difficult for good teams to stay good and bad teams to stay bad. In the NBA, rosters are small and if you have a LeBron James, you are assured of playoffs every year. You add Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh to that mix, life becomes real good and will continue to be good for years.

Major League Baseball does have a long season like the NBA that promotes consistency and predictability and does not have single-elimination playoff games - except for the new wild-card round. But it's still al lot less predictable than the NBA because it's just a different game. The starting pitcher means so much in that sport and one great pitcher on a roll can swing the series one way or the other all by himself. This happens a lot, especially in the wild card and five-game divisional series rounds. So NBA is clearly the most predictable. Thats not all bad. It's also the most "stable" playoffs, There is something to be said about the best teams always making it to the top. I have always thought MLB playoffs are the worst in this regard. After a grueling, 162-game season, a singular pitching performance can negate everything and foist a new champion on us.  Luck and random occurrences rarely impact NBA playoffs like it does other sports, though we do spend a lot of time talking about referees and calls.

We all knew these four teams will be where they are now. This doesn't mean the playoffs have not been fun so far or there is no reason to watch the regular season. After all, the sport does boast of the World's best athletes and the games - even the regular season games, can provide high quality entertainment. But the point is, we could be watching a Miami-San Antonio finals for the second year in a row. Miami most probably is going to make it to its fourth straight finals. At least thats what the league is hoping for as an Indiana finals will be a ratings disaster since the western conference finalists are already small market teams. The only surprise in terms of what we expected at the beginning of the season is that Indiana wanted and earned home court and Miami has to start the series on the road. Similarly in the west, OKC and San Antonio are the last two season's finalists and one of them is going to be there again. We could argue that OKC had the better prospects at the beginning of the season and it's a bit of a surprise they didn't end up with the best record in the west

Indiana took the circuitous route to get here with all kinds of inconsistency and drama since the all-star break, but they are here now with home court in their hands. They should have enough motivation and drive to get up and perform at a high level against Miami, the one team they hate and have been obsessed with for all the right reasons. Anything less than perfect basketball against LeBron and the Heat will send Indiana fishing with Kenny sooner than later. They better bring their A-game, which has been MIA for months now. Thats why I have to grudgingly pick Miami to win this series. I pick San Antonio to win the west. Serge Ibaka's injury is a bummer for OKC and us fans who wanted to watch a great series between these two great teams. It almost feels like the NBA could actually avoid injuries and put a better finals on the table if they stop playing all those regular season games and directly start the playoffs or the finals. Lets hope for a healthy and fun Miami - San Antonio finals this season. Of course, I won't complain if Indiana proves me wrong and eliminates Miami.  But Adam Silver and the TV channels will.

I miss the first round

After the amazing first round of the NBA playoffs, I knew the second round would be a bit of a letdown and it has been just that so far. These playoffs will have several great moments between now and the finals, but it may never be as good as the ridiculously fun first round, which featured five game 7s including a record breaking three game 7s in one day. There were fifty games total in the first round - which was the highest ever, and eight overtime games with Memphis and OKC playing four straight OT games. There were a couple of buzzer beaters, one of which brought Vince Carter back from the dead and the other pushed Damian Lillard on to the mainstream. Now the playoffs have settled into more of a regular rhythm with the big boys and the upstarts fighting it out as usual. The unpredictability of the first round is gone, but there should still be enough drama for us fans to enjoy. The Heat and the Spurs seem to be having it too easy right now at home. I am sure their lives will get a little tougher and the series will become a lot tighter on the road - especially for the Spurs. But those two teams look like they might be replaying their finals series from last year.

The Pacers and the Thunder are locked in a 1-1 tie and even if they win their respective series - which I expect them to, I am not sure if they can seriously challenge the Heat or the Spurs. The Pacers have home court, which they worked real hard for throughout the season. Of course their story is now well chronicled as they started floundering after the all-star game and their troubles are continuing through the first and second round of the playoffs. I think they will step up and play their best against the Heat because that team has been the red-rag to the Indiana bull for almost three years now. Thats why they wanted home court and if they can't get up for a Eastern conference finals against the Heat, God save them. But they do need to get there first and I won't be surprised if they get dumped by the Wizards. The upstart Wizards are surprisingly a great team with a lot of talent, athleticism, and size and they are gelling at the right time. Game 3 will tell us a lot about both the tied series.

I have always had this theory that the winner of game 3 takes the series if the series is tied 1-1. I believe the theory has been confirmed by some stats as well lately. But in the crazy first round, my theory was right only with two of the five series that were tied 1-1 after two games. I was wrong with two other series, with the weird Indiana team being one of the outliers. The Spurs were the fifth team which almost won game 3 on the road before Vince Carter rolled back the clock by a dozen years and hit that buzzer beater. Basically that game 3 doesn't count in my book. In general, if the road team wins one of the first two games on the road against the higher seed, the higher seed either wrests the momentum with that game 3 win or the lower seed establishes control and equality with a home win. There is always this talk about "stealing home court" with one of those wins in the first two games, but it really doesn't mean a whole lot if the team gives it right back in game 3. This has especially been true this year where the games have been so tight in round 1 with a lot of road wins and upsets.

I am especially interested in seeing what the Clippers do in their game 3 against the Thunder. The Clippers probably have the most complete roster in these playoffs, but I think they are still a year away from challenging the real top dawgs. DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin's development this year has catapulted them into the elite category. DeAndre can be an absolute beast on certain days against some teams. They are a little young and still make way too many mistakes to challenge the Spurs. Whoever comes out of the West this year should be able to legitimately challenge and win against the Heat.

The Clippers-Warriors series was the most fun in the first round though it ended up costing Mark Johnson his job. Mark Jackson was definitely good at motivating and leading his players, but he was not a great coach when it came to X's and O's and by all reports, was not too good with other details of coaching either including dealing with his management. He got a lot of credit for turning around a down-trodden franchise, but honestly, neither Jackson, nor his players, nor the owners had anything to do with how bad the Warriors were in 1999 or 2003. So how does the history matter here except for some feel good sentiment among the fans over the last 2 years? It's not like Jackson took Latrell Spreewell and Tood Fuller to the playoffs. This is a different team altogether. He should be evaluated purely on the basis of what he did with this team. They won 51 games, and he deserves a pay raise if he took a 45-win team and manufactured 51 wins out of them. But the coach will get fired these days if he took a team with 55-win talent and won 51 games with it. It's hard to tell what's the reality with this good, but not great Warriors roster. But his bosses clearly think they could and should have done better. That doomed M-Jax at the end. No need to shed any tears or cry foul at this. We have seen way too many 50-win coaches get fired lately. M-Jax will land on his feet anyways and good luck to him rest of the way.

Can anybody tame the 12-Th man?

Looks like the road to the Super Bowl will definitely go through the 12-Th man and the deafening noise he creates in Seattle. The New Orleans Saints went in there tonight and looked like the old 'Aints. These 2 teams share one thing in common in that they are both nearly unbeatable at home. They are both 6-0 at home and the playoffs in the NFC will be decided by who gets to stay home and who gets to go on the road. It's looking more and more like the Seahawks are going to be at home and that's huge for them. The Saints on the other hand are suddenly tied with the Carolina Panthers for the division lead and they better win that division. The Saints are not a team built to go on the road and create magic in cold weather. They need the dome at least until they have to go in to Seattle again deep in the playoffs. The crazy parity in the NFL has suddenly made the Carolina Panthers a legitimate contender in the NFC south where the Atlanta Falcons are struggling at 3-9. These 2 teams have completely switched roles from what was expected of them in the pre-season. May be the Panthers with that defense will put up a better fight against the Seahawks in the playoffs than what the Saints showed us today. The NFC champion has to come from either of these 2 divisions unless somebody from the mediocre NFC North or East go on a crazy run late in the season.

In the AFC, it appears like the usual suspects will be at it again this winter. Manning is at 10-2 and Brady is sitting at 9-3. Indy and Cincy are not far behind, but they just don't look like a legitimate contender. In fact, neither does New England, but they are getting healthier, continuing to win, and they have Tom Brady. Indy is definitely missing Reggie Wayne and don't look all that dominant anymore. Kansas City was always considered a pretender and they have been proving that the last few weeks, though there is no shame in losing to Denver. The Chiefs stayed close at home and had a shot against the Broncos, but they are clearly not in the same class. It would be interesting if the AFC championship game pits Manning against Brady and if the NFC puts Russell Wilson against Cam Newton. It would be the classic contrast between the old guard and QB royalty on the AFC side and the new guard and a window into the future on the NFC side. Of course these young guns have a lot to prove. NFL's parity will drag them to the dumps in a hurry. Just ask Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan. Only the true legends like Manning, Brady, and Brees are able to resist the ravages of parity and injuries and stay relatively consistent and on top. 

Week 13 in the NFL is significant for another reason. For most fantasy leagues, this is the end of the regular season. Good luck all you ballers. The thanksgiving weekend also featured some great college games. The iron bowl between Auburn and Alabama was an instant classic and people are still talking about it well into Tuesday. Auburn won the game by returning a missed field goal all the way back for a TD on the last play of the game. Tough way to lose a shot at a national championship for Alabama, but I am  not shedding any tears for a SEC team. Saban's decision to go for a field goal was of course the right call, it just backfired on him. We got another BCS mess on our hands, but I don't mind seeing some new teams in the championship game. Ohio State escaped against Michigan much to my chagrin in another close rivalry game. The NBA season is also in full flow and my Phoenix Suns are surprisingly not bad at all. It looks like the Indiana Pacers might be able to challenge the Miami Heat for real. Who would have thought a Indiana Pacers, Portland Trail Blazers game in early December will feature a 16-1 and 14-3 teams. But then again, it is still early December and there is a long way to go before we know if anybody can really challenge the Heat in May and June.

Game Zero

I dozed off pretty much through the entire fourth quarter of the Pacers-Heat game seven tonight. That tells you all you need to know about this game seven. It was a big letdown. The pacers didn't really show up. They made this an interesting, intriguing, and competitive series until the start of game seven. Once the game started, the pacers we have been accustomed to seeing the last couple of weeks left the building. There is always the danger of this happening in game sevens with the road team. The pacers are a young, inexperienced team and these lights were too big for them. The pacers gave game one away and that's where they lost the series just like the warriors did against the Spurs. And, just like the warriors, the pacers did help prove my theory that if the series is tied after 2 games, the winner of game three takes the series. They pounded the heat with their size and toughness, but whenever the heat dialed up their intensity, pacers seemed to lack the firepower to keep up. The much-hyped game seven ended up being a lame precursor to the finals - a game zero of the finals if you will.

The Pacers need one more piece to take the next step. I like George Hill - first round picks of the San Antonio Spurs are usually no chopped liver, but they need a better point guard to manage this talented, big team. May be they can trade Danny Granger in a package and score a point guard in return. Granger is not bad either, but he is too similar to Paul George and Paul is way better. Part of me would like to see Granger back with this team with a more mature George and Hibbert, but I think they can use a point guard instead. I have full trust in Donnie Walsh, their president of basketball operations, to make the right call here. It will be an interesting off-season for the pacers. They are a legitimate contender now and am glad pro basketball is back in the hoosier state after a rough decade or so. Between the pacers and the bulls - if and when Derrick Rose returns, the Heat might have some serious threat next season. 

But first things first. Can anybody stop the heat this season? The pacers almost did it and that should give a big psychological boost to the spurs. The heat don't look anywhere near invincible and the big three has shrunk to big one all of a sudden. The "one" is definitely not a bad "one" to have, but I am really curious to see how coach Pop deals with the unstoppable LeBron James. I pick the spurs to figure this out and take this series in six. Heat don't do well against size - the pacers had size, and they don't well against speedy point guards - the spurs have Tony Parker. Duncan is not the same these days, but he is still the "big fundamental" and his size will bother the heat too. The spurs are going to be a handful for the heat and I both like and want the spurs to pull off the upset. For all the tumult the heat have been through the last three years and all the criticism LeBron and others had to endure, they have made it to three straight finals. Things are very much going according to plan for the big-3 though there is this collective public yearning for them to fail. But if they lose their second finals in three tries, it will be considered a failure.

NBA's final four

NBA's final four is an interesting mix of small market teams and LeBron James. I am not sure how much Commissioner Stern is going to like a Memphis-Indiana finals and what kind of TV ratings that would get, but it's a slight possibility. At least last year, he had the big market Boston and a super star in Kevin Durant still balling at this point of the season. This year, America has to get to know Paul George and Mike Conley if they want to enjoy these conference finals. Paul George helped his own cause quite a bit today. The lanky and talented George put up 27 points and hit a game tying 3 to send the game to overtime, where he shot 3 clutch free throws to put the Pacers ahead with just 2.2 seconds to go. He defended LeBron well for long stretches as well. But his youth shows up here and there and he does make mistakes befitting a 3-Rd year player that he is. In regulation, he threw the ball away in one of the key possessions towards the end. And in OT, he over-committed on defense and got stuck at the perimeter trying to chase LeBron and let him drive right by him to the hoop. It was too easy for LeBron.

There seems to be a lot of games going to overtime this playoffs and thats a good thing. Most of the chatter after this OT game though was about Indiana's coach Frank Vogel putting Roy Hibbert on the bench during 2 late possessions in OT, both of which ended in LeBron James layups. I would like to have Hibbert in there as well, but the match-ups usually dictate these things. Miami is a small team and having Hibbert in there can be a liability sometimes. There is no guarantee he is going to be close enough to contest the shot anyways. The Heat have the shooters and athletes to pull him out. It's not like Hibbert contests and blocks every single layup when he is in there. I am sure Vogel won't pull him out in similar situations in future games and he admitted as much, but I won't blame him for what he did today. He had to make a decision based on match-ups. He is still a young coach himself and hopefully, he learned something today. The whole Indiana gang needs to grow up fast if it wants to win this series. They have a shot and this series might go 7 either way.

In the West, I was hoping for another great series with Memphis and San Antonio, but Memphis has not really joined the series quite yet. They did come back from way behind to force OT yesterday, but they need to get in the game from the beginning to have a shot against a great team like the Spurs. They go back home now and have to win both their home games to make a series out of this. They have the talent to beat the Spurs and more importantly, I want Memphis to win because they have the talent to beat Miami. But they need to get to the finals first. They will be the tougher match-up for Miami if they ever figure out a way to stop Tony Parker in this round. Zach Randolph is yet to really show up in this series. Coach Pop is so good he is going to take something or things away from Memphis. So Conley, Gasol, and Z-Bo have to collectively bring their A-Game to get it done. I still don't know what Pop really did to Golden State, but he sure took both Curry and Klay away after they both had amazing starts to that series. I don't mind Pop and his old guys from Texas getting to the Finals one more time, except for the fact that I feel the Grizzlies will give the Heat the most trouble. May be Indiana will make that point moot. But then again, they probably blew that chance today. Too many possibilities and angles, but we can only watch and enjoy.