Denver 24 - Carolina 10

It does feel good when you are right. Especially when you pick the underdog to win the Super Bowl and it happens. Denver took care of the Panthers like I had predicted behind the stellar defense. That defense was the only reason I had picked them. I did not intend any disrespect for the Panthers nor any respect for Peyton Manning. I was really impressed with that defense against the Pats in the AFC championship game. It's not that the Pats never lost this season. In fact, they lost quite a few games late in the season and traditionally, Peyton Manning led teams have had great success against these Pats in the AFC championship games. But it was the way Denver beat the Pats that was impressive. They throttled Brady and the offense and won with very little help from their offense. That has not happened all season especially when Brady had both Edelman and Gronk at his disposal. I knew Cam Newton was in trouble. He is good, but he is no Tom Brady.

It's hard to believe that a Peyton Manning led team won with him throwing just 23 times for a mere 141 yards on a paltry 13 completions. Thats a game manager if you ever need one. Peyton Manning is a completely different QB than he was 10 years back, or even 3 years back. It' is tough to see his wobbly passes. Most of his passes looked like a pick-6 the moment it left his hand. Von Miller and the Denver defense literally carried their legendary QB to his second Super Bowl win cementing his legacy. Nobody has won 2 Super Bowls with 2 different teams. Speaking of legacy, how about his boss John Elway? Not that he needed any more validation after his 2 rings as a player to be considered Denver's most important civic treasure, but this championship absolutely elevates him to an entirely different planet. It's not that easy to win the Super Bowl both as a player and an executive. On top of that, he didn't just happen to be at the wheel driving this thing, he made some tough and hard turns.

Elway's decision to break the bank and get Peyton to Denver despite his health concerns was a brilliant move. He let go of Tim Tebow at the height of his popularity and also let go of coach John Fox before this season. Poor John Fox. He has coached both these Super Bowl teams at different times and doesn't get any credit for either. Elway's decisions have been money and he got 4 playoffs, 2 Super Bowls, and one championship out of Peyton Manning. Thats the best he could have hoped for when he brought him to Denver. Now, nobody can touch Elway for another 15 years. Winning a Super Bowl is a life changer and a big deal. It usually gets 5 years of job security in this rough NFL for a head coach and 8 to 10 years for an executive. But given Elway's special place in Denver, he doesn't have to worry for another 15 years. Sun Devil's own Brock Osweiler doesn't look half bad and he might lead the Denver to several more playoffs as a QB. Drafting him was not a bad call either by Elway.

On the flip side, losing a Super Bowl should be a big disappointment. Making it to the game is a big achievement indeed, but it doesn't come with the same perks and job security as winning does. Losing coaches don't get a whole lot of job security because the expectation is that they have to get back and win the big one soon. Just look at the job security Mike McCarthy or John Harbaugh have as opposed to Jim Caldwell in Indy. As for the QB, Cam Newton won a well-deserved MVP, but had no shot against this Denver defense. There is also a lot of criticism of his behavior and attitude towards the media in the post-game presser. It was not ideal, but doesn't bother me a whole lot. But he did surprise me with how tired and stressed he looked during the game. I have never been a professional athlete and I can't imagine how these guys feel when they play in the Super Bowl. They all talk about how anxious and excited they are through the week and can't really sleep the night before or for many nights leading up to the big game. That can't be the best way to go into the biggest game of your life.

Cam definitely looked gassed at times and resembled a 39 year old QB in the game, not Peyton. It looked like a combination of stress, anxiety, and possibly nerves. May be he didn't sleep well either. But I was most surprised by the fumble late in the game when he didn't jump on that ball and held back instead. I definitely don't know what happened there. He is one of the toughest running QBs in the league and I can't believe he was afraid of the contact. There is no explanation I can think of. At the end of the day, it was not Cam's Super Bowl. It was Von's. Lot of folks also say this was a boring game due to the lack of offensive brilliance and exciting offensive plays that have dominated the last few Super Bowls. I disagree. The game was close until very late and the Panthers were not really totally out of it. I was thoroughly entertained and found the drama gripping. Good job by the host city too managing a great Super Bowl. Now, it's time to put a bow on the NFL season. Bring on the off-season -- the only time all 32 teams have a shot and hope.

Denver 23 - Carolina 20

The Super Bowl has been dissected and analyzed in every which way the last 2 weeks including various talking heads pontificating on contrived racial issues around people's perception of Cam Newton. Thats what happens when we don't have a football game for 2 weeks after almost 5 straight months of non-stop NFL mania. Media has to keep their 24 hour sports chatter fed and happy and every angle of this game has been over-analyzed. We are all now ready for the game and glad it's less than a day away. I will spare you all the details of my line of thinking, but I am going to go with my gut and a little bit of my heart and say Peyton Manning walks away into the sunset a Super Bowl winner. My head says the Panthers could easily blowout the Broncos if a couple of early breaks go their way during the game. They are absolutely known for creating those early breaks and jumping on teams. Given Manning's recent performances in the Super Bowl, that might very well happen here. But I do like the narrative of Manning retiring a champion much like his GM John Elway. It's too good to pass up!

Aside from my gut feel and a marginal rooting interest in Manning's legacy, I do think there are legitimate football reasons to like the Broncos. Their defense is legit. I was very impressed with what they did to the Patriots couple of weeks ago both strategically as well as on the field. The Panthers offense and the MVP Cam are no joke and their balance on that side of the ball with their ability to both run and pass will be a major challenge for any defense. But I think Cam can be bothered by the Denver D and if they force him into a mistake or 2, the Broncos will be in business. Of course, everybody expects Peyton to be the one to be forced into mistakes given how he is more of a weak-armed, game manager these days. This Peyton is not the same player we saw 10 years back, but he can still do some damage, especially if you give him 2 weeks of rest and preparation time just like the Super Bowl schedule just did. Peyton also looked decent early in the game against the Pats, though the Pats defense is no comparison to the Panthers. I think there is enough juice in that right arm and if he doesn't choke like he does sometimes, he will give the Broncos D and their running game an opportunity to help him walk into the sunset in style.

Long story short, I am expecting a nip and tuck game with the Broncos upsetting the Panthers 23-20 in a close one. Thats my story and I am sticking to it.

Thank the honeymoon

When somebody is new at their job, we always use the term "he is still in his honeymoon period". San Francisco 49'ers coach Jim Harbaugh had a classic honeymoon moment last weekend. The niners were leading and playing really well against the Cowboys when they stalled at about the 37 yard line and settled for a 55 yard field goal with over 11 minutes to go in the game. The kicker nailed it, but the boys committed a penalty - the kind of penalty that would typically be considered back-breaking. These are the penalties that gives life to a stalled offense and drags the defense back on to the field and asks them to now defend an even shorter field. It was a 15 yarder and offered the ball to the Niners offense at the 22 yard line. Harbaugh surprisingly declined the penalty and instead decided to tag it to the kick-off. I was shocked to say the least. Sure, it was a long field goal, but it was a 15 yard penalty. Even if the offense didn't move an inch from there, it would have given the niners a 39 yard field goal, which you would assume is pretty easy to convert in this day and age of HGH enhanced athletes. If it was a 5 yard penalty, it would have been a different story. The worst case scenario would have been a retry on a 50 yard field goal and who knows if the kicker converts again. But he declined a 15 yarder. This decision basically meant Harbaugh had no faith in his offense. The only way this penalty was going to hurt the niners was if the offense either fumbled the ball, threw an interception or got sacked way behind or sacked multiple times and gave it's kicker another long field goal. All things a decent offense and an average QB can avoid.

Bad things can happen and does happen to NFL offenses every Sunday, but you can't play or coach scared. There is a difference between being conservative and being scared and Harbaugh was scared in this case. He was scared to put the ball in his offense and Alex Smith's hands. He was scared that his offensive line was going to screw up. All valid concerns given the talent on that side of the ball, but if you can't accept the ball on their 22- yard line, you have bigger problems. Being conservative or even scared is not going to save your season in that case. To be fair to Harbaugh, Brian Bilick on TV was not sure if he should take the penalty either. The logic was that you don't take points off the board. I am sure there is some unwritten rule somewhere for coaches on this and thats why Bilick was very familiar with it. But Harbaugh followed the rule to the T. The niners went up 24-14 at that point and the Cowboys went onto tie the game and won it in overtime. Interestingly, Harbaugh was scared for his offense and his team losing the game, not for his job. From a job security perspective, it was safer to take the ball back because a turnover then would have been Alex's or Gore's fault and not his. By making this decision, it was all Harbaugh's fault. Thats a level of cunning he doesn't have to resort to in his 2-Nd game as a head coach and hopefully never. But it is also because this is just his second game, that he gets away easy. He better be glad he is still in his honeymoon period because if Mike Singletary or Mike Nolan had done this closer to the end of their coaching tenure, the niner faithful would have roasted them over the coals.

This game also made a hero out of Tony Romo and rightfully so as he came back with a broken rib and played real well to put the boys over the top. He went from goat to a hero just like that and all the toughness questions were erased overnight. Thanks to his honeymoon, Harbaugh is not facing too many tough questions either. The niner faithful is still busy scheming how to get Alex Smith out of town! Across the bay, the Raiders are also dealing with the aftermath of a tough defeat they snatched from the jaws of victory. They let the Bills score in every possession in the second half to the tune of 35 points and lost a game they were dominating in the first half. Jason Campbell played real well even without 3 of his top receivers and his top TE. I don't ever remember the top 4 pass catchers being hurt and out. Good for the Raiders, none of them are that good anyways! They seem to have replaced them rather easily. The Bills and Ryan Fitzpatrick are playing great right now. Next week's Bills-Pats contest should be an high-octane affair and might surprise us just like last week's Bills-Raiders. In Carolina, Cam Newton continues to impress. He threw for more than 400 yards again. I am glad I predicted it will happen again, though I didn't expect it so soon against the world champions. He is hosting the Jaguars this Sunday and Blaine Gabbert is going to start for the Jags. That an interesting storyline for the weekend for sure. Arizona Cardinals lost a tough one on the road, but the overall outlook for the team still looks good. Kolb is doing well and the Rams are not doing great. So the Cards can easily make it to the playoffs if they don't self-destruct.

Overall, the Lions, Redskins and the Bills are looking better than expected and the Rams, Chiefs and the Colts are looking worse than expected. Week 3 will clarify things much more. Bring on week 3!

Tom and Cam define week 1

I don't know what was more ridiculous. Tom Brady throwing for 517 yards or Cam Newton throwing for 422 yards. Where's the defense? What happened to the theory that offenses take longer than defenses to get into the groove, especially coming off a lockout shortened training camp? Brady shredded the Miami defense Monday night and he didn't even need Chad Ochocinco to do anything. It was beautiful to watch Brady throw those pin-point passes that hit his receivers in stride every time. Whether he is making passes at a super model or throwing passes to Wes Welker, I guess Brady knows what he is doing. I don't care how many more rings he accumulates, I will rank Brady second only to Peyton Manning, but I have to say, he is an elite quarterback and he was totally on-point Monday night. This league is definitely becoming more and more QB, offense and pass friendly and I am not complaining. You can't breathe on a quarterback these days and the corner-backs can't do much of what they used to do a decade back. All of that is beginning to show in the numbers. Brady threw for 517 yards and there is talk of him eclipsing Dan Marino's single season record for yardage (5084 yards) this season. Of course both Brady and Manning have already surpassed Marino's single season TD record. Too early for such discussions this season, but with the new NFL, I wouldn't be surprised if Dan the Man loses more of his records. Week 1 featured 5 games where both QBs threw for more than 300 yards. Thats almost 1/3-Rd of the league. Thats not counting Kyle Orton and Matthew Stafford who also threw for 300+ yards in their respective games.

The most surprising QB performance was Cam Newton's 422 yards. The rookie from Auburn was supposed to be so mediocre in year 1 that even a star WR like Steve Smith was barely drafted in most fantasy leagues. Their passing offense was supposed to struggle as Cam was expected to suffer through a steep learning curve despite his amazing physical tools. Coming into the NFL, he didn't look ready, but he showed us last weekend why the Panthers spent their first pick on him though there was some talk of other QBs possibly being more ready for the NFL than him. All last week before the games, most experts picked Cincinnati's Andy Dalton to have a better game than Cam in week 1, but they were not even close to being correct. Cam looked like Michael Vick without the dogs and was throwing long darts all over the field. He also ran for a TD and at 6'5", 248 pounds, this guy is going to be something else if he keeps this up. Of course thats a big question mark because he did all this to the Cardinals defense. I would like to think he is that good and the Cardinals defense is not that bad for selfish reasons, but I am afraid the truth is somewhere in-between and the Cardinals defense might just be that bad. We will know more this weekend as the super bowl champs will try and contain Cam and they should do a much better job than the Cards. It was good that Kolb and the Cards won their first game together, but the story of that game was definitely Cam Newton. Does he have another 400 yarder in him this season? Looking at the league right now, I have to say yes. Either way, I will be watching what he does rest of the way.

Some of the bigger games last weekend gave us some interesting results. The Baltimore Ravens pummeled the Pittsburgh Steelers much to my delight and sent the reigning AFC champion running for cover and searching for answers. Nothing good came out of that game for the Steelers except a new Tomlinism - "There is a fine line between drinking wine and squashing grapes. Obviously last weekend we were grape squashers.” I don't even know what that means, but it sounds so cool! Sunday night game between the NY Jets and the Dallas Cowboys was interesting for just one reason. Both QBs did exactly what their reputation would suggest. Mark Sanchez didn't seem to do much, but he won a big game as always. He should be the most unimpressive QB with the most impressive wins against better QBs. As for Romo, it was the same story as always - great for 3 quarters and major mistakes when it mattered most. QBs always get too much credit or too much blame for victories and defeats. Case in point - Mark Sanchez. He gets a lot of credit though the Jets mostly win despite him, not because of him. But Romo truly lost that game for Dallas. He fumbled at the goal-line once and then threw an interception with less than a minute to go in the game. He forced the ball to Dez Bryant, who was limping and covered by Darrelle Revis, one of the best corners in the world. Sometimes, Romo just gets blamed for the loss, but this time he earned it. I think his problem is simple. He doesn't take ball security in the clutch seriously. He needs a shot of seriousness injected into him in the 4-Th quarter to cure his nonchalance. He has to learn to protect the ball all game, but 10 time more securely in the 4-Th. Lets see how the boys respond against the Niners next week in Jim Harbaugh's second game as the head man in San Francisco.