Playoff fever in the NBA

The NBA playoffs are in full-flow. Round one is in the books. Ironically, the only game remaining in round 1 as I write this is between the Cavs and the Pacers. It obviously features LeBron James, who has almost always breezed through the first round matchups. Not this year, not with this sub-par roster that he is running with. Pacers have given the Cavs all they can handle and would have probably won this thing already if they had home court. But they don't and they have to now go into Cleveland and beat LeBron James. Probably won't happen despite this Cavs team being the worst team LeBron has had since his first stint in Cleveland. He has has great talent around him in Miami and the last 3 years in Cleveland, but now he has to carry them to the second round all by himself. He will get it done tomorrow, but how far can he carry them? He is getting tired late in game and doesn't play great defense consistently or in transition. You can't even blame him. As much as he looks like an alien at times on the basketball court, he is only human and is in his 15th year. It's a mystery he is putting up these amazing numbers, but something's gotta give and this is not sustainable. First things first though for the Cavs. They have to win game 7.

These playoffs have been great so far. It's been very competitive with many interesting storylines. LeBron's buzzer-beater in game 5 was amazing.  We have also seen a lot of pushing and shoving and mini-skirmishes as you can clearly see how the intensity and hatred increases as the series goes into games 3, 4, and later. Guys see the same guys defending them and they get sick of each other sooner than later. These series starts gently and ramps up in intensity slowly, but surely. Three of the four Eastern conference round 1 series were long ones. That only confirmed what we all knew already that the East is wide-open wth no clear favorites. Philadelphia 76'ers are the trendy pick and rightfully so. They beat the Heat 4-1, the shortest round 1 series in the East. That's pretty impressive considering the Miami Heat are the kind of well-coached, defensive-minded, tough team that can surprise an unsuspecting higher seed and drag them through a long series. The Sixers didn't let that happen and dispatched the Heat early via an intensely contested gentleman's sweep. Now they get to meet the Celtics and they have to be the favorites. Boston has enough talent to win maybe one game and coach Stevens is worth another win.  I'd say the Sixers win this one in 6. The Raptors will face the winner of Cavs-Pacers and they will have their hands full either way. Cavs will beat them in 7 if thats the matchup. If it's the Pacers, Raptors in 7. I did expect the Raptors to go 7 games even against the Wizards, but they wrapped it up in 6  beating my projections by one game much like the Sixers. I did predict correctly that both the Celtics and Cavs series to go seven. I picked the Bucks to get it done, but hedged my bet on that one a bit. So, am not really surprised by a Celtics win. Hoping the Cavs prove me right tomorrow.

In the West, both the Warriors and the Rockets finished their gentleman's sweep. Jazz put the Thunder out of their misery in 6, but lost Rubio to a injury for a few days. That could be costly for them in the next round. I expected the Jazz to be a pain for the Rockets. They have size, a solid home crowd, and Donovan Mitchell to give the Rockets all they can handle. That series might go 7. I pick the Rockets to win and thats only because Rubio is expected to be out for 10 days. I believe the right matchup can derail this Houston team regardless of the round though they did win the first round series a game sooner than I had projected. Both the Jazz and Dubs made me look great by making my projections come true in the first round. The team that made all of us look bad were the Pelicans. I said the Blazers will win in 6, but that series has been the only sweep in these playoffs so far. And, it's the lower seededed Pelican who swept the Blazers out of the playoffs. Great matchup for the pelicans in that one and I immediately thought they won't be able to have that good a time against the Dubs. Matchups are completely different in this one. This was proven today in game 1 as the Dubs kicked off round 2 by kicking the Pelicans rear-end all over Oakland. Dubs should take this series in 6, maybe even 5 if Curry gets cooking soon.

Four-feiture!

Are we ready for a four-peat of the Cavs and Warriors? More importantly, are those teams even ready? Do we even want it?  The third finals between the two was much anticipated last year. I am not sure if we want a 4th edition. But then again, how can you say "no" to LeBron in the Finals? Can he make it to his 8th straight Finals? Can the Warriors turn on the switch? Is there even a switch to turn on, especially with Curry out right now? Are the Rockets really better than the Warriors? Can teams like the Thunder and the Jazz trip up either of these top teams even before the Western Conference Finals? We will find the answers to these and other questions starting tomorrow in the NBA playoffs. It will take us a good 2 months, but we will get there. The NBA playoffs start with a lot of excitement, but then it almost meanders along for a bit as it takes its sweet time to get to the later rounds. It is what it is and we will be watching. Many matchups on deck for round 1 and here are my thoughts.

Timebewolves @ Rockets: I expect Jimmy Butler to give Harden and the Rockets some tense moments in round 1. I pick the Rockets to win 4-2. There will be tougher matchups for the Rockets in these playoffs later, but this one won't be a walk in the park either due to Butler.

Spurs @ Warriors: This is probably the softest starting point for the Dubs. There is typically nothing soft about a Pop coached team, but this team just may not have the talent to compete with even a Curry-less Warriors. Nobody knows whats going on with Kwahi. Without him, this should be a 4-1 series in favor of the Warriors. Dubs have to play with effort, seriousness, and smarts. All of that has been missing for long stretches of this season and they better find that switch they have been waiting to turn on. If they show up, this should be an easy series.

Pelicans @ TrailBlazers: Blazers should win this one 4-2. Anthony Davis can only do so much and one-star teams are easier to manage in a 7-game series than in a regular season game in February. Pelicans do have some supporting talent starting with Jrue Holiday, but Blazers should be able to handle them.

Jazz @ OKC: Not only is this the best first round series in the West, the winner, regardless of who it is, will also make life extremely uncomfortable for the Rockets in the next round. To do that, they have to get out of this round in tact and healthy. I think the Jazz do that with a 4-2 win here. They are the lower seed, but 4-V-5 is never a big upset. Definitely not this year in the west where seeds 3 through 8 are separated by just 2 games.

Wizards @ Raptors: I am one of like 800 millions people who don't entirely trust the Raptors in the playoffs. They will make this interesting, difficult, and finally win it 4-3. Great back-court matchup and will be fun to watch.

Bucks @ Celtics: I have no idea what's going to happen here. An under-manned higher seed going against a under-achieving lower seed. The Bucks will have the best player in the series and the Celtics will have the better coach. I have to say Bucks win 4-3, but I can totally see the president and his system coming through at home in game 7.

Heat @ 76'ers: Another well-coached team here in the Heat, but the Sixers are flying high. Prince Ben Simmons is no joke and he may be offended if he knows I pick them to win this one 4-2. That's how confident him and his team are as they are rolling in to these playoffs with great momentum.

Pacers @ Cavs: Last but not the least, LeBron and the Cavs will have an interesting 4-V-5 series on their hands. Oladipo is no joke and the Cavs defense will give the Pacers a lot of opportunities, but how can I pick against the King? He has been sensational the last couple of months and it's scary to think he will find an even higher gear in these playoffs. He wins this one 4-3.

Call me boring, but if I have to put my money on it, I will still pick the Warriors and Cavs to play in the NBA finals. The East is still weak and may not be able to stop LeBron. Sixers are too young, the Celts are too injured, and the Raptors are well, too Raptors. In the West, there are some serious challengers to the Dubs and they won't go 12-0 through these teams this year. However, I think it is fair for us to tell the Rockets "show me" before making them the favorites over teams like the Warriors and LeBron. Rockets have 3 key assets that have not had big-time playoff success.

Harden and Paul have not had great playoff success and as much as I am pained to say this, Coach D'Antoni has his playoff demons too. So, no need to coronate these Rockets. They have to earn it. Harden has to erase the memory of that horrible final game of last season against the Spurs. CP3 has to let the game come to him in the final minutes of pressure-cooker playoff games and not force bad decisions. Make D'Antoni has to show he can trust and use a bench to take some load of his stars. Oh yeah, even with all that, the Dubs have more talent. So, good luck beating them. Looking forward to seeing how all of this shakes out. Buckle up!

Intriguing Spring

The NCAA tournament is now in the books. We will all miss sister Jean, but won't miss the mediocre Final 4 games on the court. Villanova was too good for the Michigan team in the Finals and even for Kansas in the semis which made the marquee games boring to watch. Sister Jean carried the tournament all by herself though the earlier rounds were pretty interesting including a never-before-seen 16 over 1 upset. The tournament is always fun mostly because of the unknown and the crazy upsets, but at the end of three weeks, it's always the so-called blue bloods that win it all. The only drama is which higher seed will win. For all the hype and love around upsets and Cinderella's, it's Kansas or Duke or North Carolina or Villanova or Kentucky or Michigan State winning it all. Couple of them will lose in the first weekend, couple more in the second weekend and one of them will win it all. What makes it fun I guess is, we just don't know which ones from the list falls in which bucket each year.

Villanova this year adopted the NBA's three-point revolution and Steph Curry'ed their way to a championship. They killed Kansas in the semis with 18 threes to win it going away. It has been fascinating to watch the spread of the 3-ball in the NBA and looks like the NCAA is following in their footsteps now. The Steph Curry effect on the younger generation is only going to make this better or worse, depending on your perspective, at all levels of basketball. Curry is the ultimate symbol of the 3-ball, though many teams including our 7-seconds or less Suns, the Stan Van Gundy Orlando Magic, and the current era of Daryl Morey Rockets have all accelerated the 3-ball revolution to different levels. But Curry is the singular star who is inspiring a generation of shooters and as different as the game looks today, it's going to look very different in another 10 years. I am curious to see where the 3-ball takes us, especially the college basketball, as I do expect a course correction at some point.

Speaking of Curry, he is currently MIA in the NBA and the Warriors are still inconsistently meandering into the playoffs even as the league is barreling towards what is shaping up as a crazy playoffs. The playoffs, especially in the West, has always been competitive the last few years, but the twist this year is, the teams from 4 to 10 are bunched up and we have no clue what the matchups are going to be even with just a few days left in the regular season. The Rockets are ahead of the Warriors by a bunch of games thanks to all the injuries the Dubs have suffered through the last few weeks. The guys for the Dubs are beginning to come back except for Curry and last week's win at OKC was impressive and as big a regular season statement as you can expect from a 2-time champion. Of course, they followed that up with 2 bad losses against the Pacers and the Pelicans. With all that said, they are still the team to beat. I expect the playoffs to be much tougher and tighter for them this year than last, but they have the talent to get this done.

The Rockets look scary good, but can they do it in the playoffs? Harden, Paul, and even coach D'Antoni are haunted by several playoff demons. It's only fair that the World is telling them "show me before I can trust you". We used to think the style the Rockets play is not a good fit for the playoffs, but those days are long gone. Almost all the teams play that style to some degree today and thats not a concern anymore. However, this cast of characters have to show us they can win the big one. No need to hand them the throne now. They will get enough opportunites with home court on their side to earn it. They may, but they have to go through the Warriors. The story is similar in the East. Cleveland Cavliers look headed to another finals despite all thier flaws and troubles. LeBron seeems energized by the new group around him and he is still the King. With injuries to Boston and Raptors continuing to lose to the Cavs, I wouldn't be shocked to see LeBron make it to his 8th straight finals. The Sixers maybe as big a challenge to them as any of the other teams in the LEast.

Spring also means the start of the baseball season. Giancarlo Stanton kicked off his Yankee career with a couple of majestic home runs, but is already getting booed in the Bronx. I guess thats his welcome to NYC moment. The real story of the season so far Shohei Ohtani, the Japanese Babe Ruth. That dude is legit and a great storyline for MLB to have in it's back-pocket, especially early in the season. At the end of the day, the Houston Astros will be the team to beat, not just this year, but for the foreseeable future. Houston may become the sports capital of the country if the Rockets dethrone the Dubs. The Astros have started the season in style. I don't have big hopes for either the DBacks in the NL or the A's in the AL, but I will be following them closely as there are some positive signs with both teams for the future. Not to be left behind the sports that are in-season, the NFL off-season has been active and interesting as always. It's not even draft day yet, but the league is making it's presence felt.

NFL Teams trade a tad bit more the last couple of years and that adds more juice to the league. The Pats traded away Brandin Cooks recently to the Rams for a first round pick. As always, nobody knows what the Hoodie is up to, but we know he is up to some good. The story this off-season has been the Rams. They are loading up. The new model in the NFL seems to be to load up when you have a stud QB in a cheap contract. When you draft a QB and he turns out good, you have him on the cheap for a few years while he is on his rookie contract. It's smart to go for the kill right then and use that cap room to load up on talent instead of waiting for the QB to mature and get better. Don't wait because, once that QB becomes a free agent, you have to dedicate a huge portion of the cap to him. It becomes harder to build an awesome team around him. Seattle with a cheap Russell Wilson back in the day and Philly last year with a cheap Carson Wentz were both hugely successful examples of that strategy.

Rams are trying the same strategy in 2018 with a decent, but cheap Jared Goff at QB and a playoff caliber team. By adding Ndamikan Suh, Aaquib Talib, Marcus Peters, and Brandin Cooks, Rams are pretty much the early super bowl favorite. It's also smart on their part to set themselves up with bright stars like that for the new stadium in LA, a city where star power matters more than anywhere else. The one big story left now before the draft is Odell Beckham Jr. There are rumors that the Pats will go after OBJ with those draft picks. I doubt that. There are also some rumors that the Niners want OBJ. That is more believable given that they are locked in an amazing arms race with the Rams that the Rams are clearly winning. These two teams are both pretty hyped in the NFC West right now, but the Niners don't have the "cheap QB" advantage that the Rams have. Lets see if the handsomely rich and richly handsome Jimmy Geezus can elevate the niners to a place consistent with the off-season hype. Happy to note that Seattle is probably on the way down and sadly, so are my Arizona Cardinals.