Tuesday, July 05, 2016

Awesome Foursome.

Kevin Durant made his decision today. It was not what we were expecting and he pretty much shocked the NBA world. I sure was surprised that he picked the Warriors over the Thunder. We have a new super-team now, this one in the Bay Area and the region is going understandably nuts. They are already in serious love with the Warriors the last 2 years and this might push them over the edge. Never before in free agency has one of the best players in the league joined the best team in the league that won 73 games. It's incredible! The Warriors lost the finals to the Cavs, but many people including yours truly and definitely all the dubs fans strongly believe the dubs are still the best team in the league. Only a series of strange events conspired to derail them earlier this month in the finals. Now they have added Durant to that championship core. As much as we focus on free agency, the reality is, most top talent stay put. Rarely does a Durant move around even in this day and age. Even with it's rich history of multiple teams and championships, the Bay Area is currently ranking Durant as the top free agent pickup ever beating Barry Bonds and Deion Sanders for that honor. Most of it's stars much like anywhere else were home grown draftees - Joe Montana, Jerry Rice, Buster Posey, Madison Bumgarner, Mark McGwire, Rick Barry, Stephen Curry etc.

NBA free agency is fun, especially when a big name like Durant is in the market. You could legitimately make an argument that more people follow the NBA off-season than the regular season, which tends to be real long and dreary at times. It was not boring in the Bay Area last year with the 24-0 start and the 73 win pursuit and hopefully, it won't be next year either given we will all be following this super-team. But in your average NBA market, the regular season can be a drag. Playoffs are fun, but more so if your team makes it. If not, it is neither here nor there until the conference finals. But the off-season is a time of hope and change for all teams. Every team is trying and pretending to improve and the faithful is all in. As a Suns fan, I am excited for the combination of Jared Dudley, a 18 year-old Croatian, and a 19 year-old dude who fouled out of 15 of his 34 games in college. Thats hope for god's sake and thats the power of the draft and free agency. NBA entertains us with both. NFL draft is huge, but their free agency is so-so at best. MLB has a strong hot-stove but their draft is not relevant in the short-term.

So the Durant free agency was the top sports news this weekend. The pursuit is always fun and Boston's Danny Ainge took the cake by bringing in Tom Brady for the pitch. The dubs showed up with their big 3 and Iggy alongside the management. And then a Jerry West call probably swayed him as well as West supposedly told him his scoring will be a lot easier with the dubs and he can also showcase other aspects of his game. I didn't know Durant led the Thunder in rebounds per game until West told me that, through the media reports of course :-) Durant finally whittled his suitors down to Thunder and the Warriors and then came the announcement this morning setting the sports world on fire. It's not often such top talent switch teams in their prime. The LeBron's "decision" was big and he made it bigger by stretching it out and doing the stupid TV show. Durant kept this short, but when he did announce he is joining the Warriors, the reaction was understandably enormous. Dubs fans and players were elated and of course quite a few critics came out of the woodworks as well. Durant's own tweets and critical comments from the time of LeBron's "decision" didn't help matters for him.

Some people like P.J. Carlesimo say it is none of our business and Durant is free to do whatever he wants. Two things that appear to be contradictory can both be true sometimes. Of course Durant is a free agent and as the name suggests, he is free to do whatever he wants. But it is also our business to deal with it. If we didn't care, he won't be signing a 54 million dollar contract. It truly is none of my business when my teller quits Bank of America and joins Wells Fargo. I don't really care and consequently, the tellers make 35 grand a year at the high end. Athletes are in a public profession and are almost civic entities. Thats why they are celebrities and make millions, but our love, hate, criticism, and judgement is the price they pay for it. People like PJ need to understand it's not Joe Lacob paying Durant, but it's the average fan. Are you telling me an OKC fan shouldn't be upset or disappointed or critical of Durant today? The same guy who paid 300 dollars for a nosebleed seat for game 6 of the Western Conference finals to cheer for Durant? It's absolutely his business to pass judgement on this, though Durant is of course free to pursue liberty and happiness and whatever else he wants. Both are simultaneously true and please don't tell the paying fans what to do or not to do as long as it doesn't cross the legal or personal line.

It's going to be interesting to see where the reactions settle for Durant when it's all said and done. Is he going to be more hated or less hated than LeBron was after his "decision"? Thats the obvious comparison. I vote for less and there are key differences between the two. Obviously, first and foremost, LeBron's mishandling of the "decision" is the biggest differentiator, though it was effectively the same decision that Durant made today. Unlike LeBron, Durant's apparoach deserves no backlash. LeBron was also a local kid which made the blow harder for Cleveland to absorb. On the flip side, Cleveland at least had 3 major professional teams and the Cavs were pretty much an afterthought before LeBron showed up. Durant on the other hand was the "founding father" of the Thunder, to quote their GM Sam Presti, the only professional sports team in OKC. Also, Cavs had trouble surrounding LeBron with top talent and he left to chase rings. Durant is arguably leaving the second best team in the league to join the best team, a team that just beat him in the Western Conference Finals. So he sure looks a lot more like a band-wagoner who believes in the adage "if you can't beat 'em, join 'em." LeBron went and helped form a super team in Miami. Durant is joining a championship caliber team to upgrade it to a super team. Those are the differences and you are free to care or just say "same difference" to those.

LeBron's "decision" was bad in many ways, but one of the major problems was, it pioneered the idea of forming super-teams to win a championship. LeBron's move was the MJ of super-team formations. There are great athletes today who all grew up worshipping Jordan and mimicking him. Some of them are even better athletes than MJ, but he was the first and the inspirational force behind the modern day NBA athlete. Hence he is the most impressive and thats what makes him MJ! He created a trend that eventually gave us the Stromile Swift-Darius Miles era of amazing athleticism and unwatchable basketball where guys never learned to dribble, pass, and shoot, but could jump out of the gym with ease. Not to digress too much, but I might add that it took the league almost a decade to fix and cleanup that trend with some deft rule changes.

Coming back to the here and now, LeBron's "decision" is an original much like MJ and teams and stars are trying to replicate that approach. Thats why I don't think the backlash now will be anywhere near what LeBron endured in 2010. NBA tried to tighten the rules even more after the "decision" to help small market teams retain their own stars, but the sudden salary cap spike this summer did the Thunder in. To be fair to LeBron and Durant, they are not the first ones to leave their small towns at their athletic peak. Shaq left Orlando for LA right after a couple of deep playoff runs, but back then, he went for the bright lights and lifestyle. Not that it was a better reason for the league or for Orlando, but it was different. Kobe was barely a rookie who had not taken a single shot in the NBA yet when Shaq went. Shaq didn't go to form a super-team to chase a ring and thats a new trend, especially in free agency these days.

My first reaction to Durant's signing was a little bit of sadness on multiple fronts. It is great for the Warriors and even Durant, but I am always rooting for the underdogs. I also like the narrative of building through the draft and playing the entire career with the same team. So I was disappointed for both sides. It is of course a crushing blow for OKC. But even for the Warriors, one of the cool things about the current team was, it was basically home-grown via the draft and they won a championship building from scratch.  In fact, if Festus Ezeli had developed as planned and if Durant was not coming, they would have kept Ezeli and Barnes and become a home-grown starting 5 contending for a championship. Only Bogut and Iggy are outsiders among their key contributors. Championships thrill the fans in any shape or form with or without home grown talent. But I have to say, LeBron's ring in Cleveland is of course a lot sweeter than LeBron's ring in Miami. Some dubs fans would have loved for the team to stay as is and go back to the finals and defeat the same Cleveland team to avenge that shocking finals debacle. But they have now gotten a lot better by adding Durant in free agency. Dubs fans will be fine with that, especially if and when they win a ring. Nationally though, they have gone from a lovable team of young upstarts to the most hated super-team in a matter of 2 years.

But the real disappointment is in OKC. It should indeed be a dark day for NBA fans in Oklahoma. They have never had NBA without Durant. He came there with the team. They love their college football there, but Durant was the face of professional sports. Even from Durant's perspective, he walks away from a great civic relationship which could have been more special than Dan Marino in Miami or Tim Duncan in San Antonio or Tom Brady in Boston to name a few if he won a championship. Of course that was a big "if" and I have a feeling he probably didn't get an assurance from Westbrook that he would stay next year. It would have been a scary proposition for Durant if he was left alone holding the bag in OKC without Westbrook. That is not a recipe for a championship. But if he did win a championship there, it would have been special given he is the father and face of pro sports in that state. Imagine him retiring after 15 or 16 years at OKC with a ring or 2. Even without the ring, we are talking a statue in front of the arena, a street named after him, the most popular athlete ever ranking in the state, and probably offers to become the Lieutenant Governor. Thats legacy with a capital L and would have rivaled LeBron's in Cleveland. But instead, he took the easy way out and is chasing multiple rings with a super team. At the end of the day, we care only about winning and rings and the more he wins, the more we will forget the cute OKC narrative. Well, except for the OKC fans who will never forget.

OKC was really unlucky here more than anything. Teams like the Warriors and Spurs have no business being in contention here with that much cap room. The only reason that happened was the steep hike in this year's salary cap, just in time for Durant's free agency. OKC could have at least gotten some talent in return via a trade if Durant wanted to leave under the old cap regime and picked teams with no cap room. But the cap increase meant abut 21 teams could add a max salary and Durant was interested in 6 of them. The Warriors got in there despite their existing salaries and stole him with a sizable offer. Bad timing for OKC indeed. This is exactly why the league wanted a gradual increase in the cap, but the players union didn't agree and rightfully so as the league was getting a lot of money and the players wanted their fair share sooner than later. Thunder became the biggest collateral damage of the new cap regime. Hindsight is 20-20, but one has to wonder what would have happened if their ownership was willing to pay the luxury tax and keep James Harden on board. They had to pick Ibaka over Harden with that team, but if they had figured out a way to keep both, may be they retain Durant today. May be they are the best team in the league. May be they already have a championship and Durant doesn't have to leave. So many hypotheticals there. OKC sure wishes the cap had gone up when Harden was a free agent instead of now when Durant is. But this is how the cookie crumbles sometimes.

Now onto the basketball side of things. I think these dubs will be an awesome team with amazing results. Durant's game and attitude fits this roster well and the unselfishness will rub off on him enabling them to put on a show on the court. I can't wait for November. It will also be interesting to see how the scoring between Curry and Durant shakes out. Supposedly, Curry told Durant he couldn't care less about stats, awards, face of the franchise etc. The dubs are still Curry's team, at least in the Bay, where he is beloved. He will start this season as the face of the Warriors and then the performance will decide things. But his image has taken a hit nationally with the finals loss and mediocre performances after 2+ years of total, global love. Now he is seen as bringing in bigger help to guide him to the next ring. Of course none of that matters if he wins a ring or 3. Look at Dwayne Wade. He won a ring on his own and won 2 more with LeBron's help. LeBron's rings were totally his as Wade had embraced a decreasingly lesser role over LeBron's 4 years in Miami. Still those rings only add to Wade's reputation and hall-of-fame legacy. It doesn't diminish or hurt him in any way. He married Gabrielle Union in 2014 for god's sake! Wade's life is good.

LeBron went into Miami as an inferior scorer and people were wondering if Wade would be the lead dog with LeBron helping him out with everything. Those Scottie Pippen chants in year one were fun! But LeBron stepped up right from the first year and took over that team completely by year 3. Wade was also getting a little older and increasingly bothered by injuries. The dubs situation is a bit different as Durant and Curry are exactly the same age. Both can score at will and have no offensive deficiencies. Curry and gang are unselfish, but who gets more shots and who gets the last shot are still two interesting questions. Curry will be fine either way when he gets more rings, but it will still not be the same as winning those rings as the unquestioned alpha dog. He was part of an awesome big 3, but was clearly the leader. Now he has a big 4 in their absolute prime, but Durant might supplant him as the leader. We shall see if that happens and if that bothers Curry or anybody else for that matter. Curry and Durant should both get paid the new mega max deal next year and they have a 3 year window to win big. In 3 years, Klay will be a free agent again and I am not sure how they pay him too. None of us really understand the NBA cap rules and we will cross that bridge when we come to it. Plus, this ownership is rich, winning, making a lot of money, and willing to spend. So who knows what happens in 2019 with Klay's bird rights, luxury tax, etc. Until then, this will be a fun show.

The guy who do need to be careful right now is Steve Kerr. Super teams either win a championship or get the coach fired.  Kerr already has a ring and that should protect him through season one and two. But if he doesn't win one championship in the next 2 years, he will be fired. Coach up Mr. Kerr.

3 comments:

Magesh said...

I don't feel bad for OKC since they practically stole the Sonics from Seattle. Bad karma from the very start, IMO. The moves they've made since reaching the Finals have been questionable and undid their great drafts to build their core of Durant, Westbrook, Harden and Ibaka. With KD gone, it doesn't seem like they'll be back in contention any time soon (especially if Westbrook leaves next year). They're good enough to barely make the playoffs every year which is terrible for teams with championship goals in cities that can't attract star free agents. Teams like OKC that are in small markets and have owners who actually want to cut costs and maximize profits need to build through the draft (like OKC did before) and mediocrity won't get you very many high draft picks. Oh well, one less Western Conference team to worry about. ;-)

When I try to explain the changing dynamics of player movement these days (versus decades past), three factors come to mind: Money, the CBA and Social Media. With the amount of money in contracts these days, the highest-paid players are starting to realize that sometimes less is more -- you can leave some money on the table and gain the freedom to go where you want to go (like a team more likely to win a championship) and be happier with your life. If your ultimate goal is to experience the joy of winning a championship (especially for players who've never won one like LeBron in 2010 and Durant now), go to a team that gives you the best chance to do that. Winning a title is sure to offset any money you that you chose to leave behind (which isn't much when you're signing 8-figure and 9-figure contracts).

The second factor is the changing CBA. Like you said, the sudden spike in the salary cap came at the worst possible time for OKC since most teams had the cap room to sign OKC's best player at the exact moment he became a free agent. It used to be that most teams were always capped out and only the bad teams had cap room since most of their players were lottery picks on rookie deals. This meant that all teams could re-sign their best players (using Bird rights) and the only way to change teams and still get max money was through sign and trades. Now, in 2016, even a 73-win team can have a max salary slot! There are also no more 7-year contracts which used to force max players to stay with their teams longer. This also means that players have more opportunities to experience free agency and more chances to decide for themselves where they want to play.

The third factor is Social Media. In years past, players were almost universally beloved by their team's fans and that love was enough to motivate them to stay with their current teams for most of their careers. Nowadays with social media, fans are louder than they've ever been and not all of what they say is pleasant. There's a lot of vitriol and hate out there and players are experiencing more of that not only form opposing fans but also their own. LeBron was definitely loved by Cleveland fans but every year that he didn't win a championship he got more and more criticized (by analysts and fans alike). Criticisms like he couldn't play defense, couldn't shoot the 3, had no post-moves, couldn't hit freethrows, couldn't hit clutch shots were thrown around quite a bit and this was while he was winning MVP awards. Criticisms get amplified in social media and with players being more tech savvy they had to wonder "If I'm going to be hated either way, why not leave town and at least do what's best for me (screw the analysts and fans)." Back in the day players were surely criticized but the voices, I would imagine, were few and not as loud.

Magesh said...

Most importantly the voices are fickle and the criticisms are temporary. LeBron showed that after he left Cleveland, he lost a lot of (Cleveland) fans but gained a lot of (Miami) fans. And after going back to Cleveland, the fans that he "lost" all seemed to come back. In the process of losing and gaining fans, he also won 3 championships (proving that he could have his cake and eat it too). I think Durant can do the same -- win a couple of titles while trading his OKC fans for GSW fans and when the time comes, maybe go back to OKC and get his old fans back. Or if he wanted, maybe go back to his hometown (DC) or even to Seattle (if they one day get a new team). Like they say "Be who you are and say what you feel because people who mind don't matter and people who matter don't mind".

With that said, can't wait for Summer League to start to see what the latest crop of young players can do in the big leagues!

Good_Cynic said...

Good points as always. Lots of people are especially unsympathetic towards OKC because of the Seattle thingy. I didn't expect that, though it makes sense. Of course, fans are fickle and if he wins, all will be forgotten.