All Day, rookies are Chuck Strong.

Around this time of the year, you always hear people say "this year flew by fast!" We say that every year, but I do believe 2012 went by extra fast. May be it's because I was busy this year and had some good times. And that includes me making the Super Bowl in both my fantasy football leagues. I won one and lost one if you are wondering. I wanted to win both because the odds of somebody making 2 Super Bowl in 2 fantasy leagues in the same year is so slim and winning both would have only made the story that much more impressive. But I can't complain and I don't want to bore people with my fantasy stories either. In the real NFL, the regular season concluded today. Another year in the books, though the calendar year still has one more day. The story today was Colt's head coach Chuck Pagano returning to the sidelines. It's a heart warming story made better by the fact that the team seems to truly respect and like him and are winning for him and with him. They made it to the playoffs after the horrible season in 2011 - before Pagano, Luck and the gang got there. How good are these guys to make this kind of an immediate impact!

There are 3 rookie QBs playing next week in the playoffs with RG III and Russel Wilson joining Andrew Luck. That might be the most impressive stat of the year. Gone are the days when rookie QBs, even future hall of famers, were good for 10 to 12 losses. Now, if you get the right one, you can win 10+ with some good coaching and decent talent around them. These 3 QBs have been fantastic all year and they are all different. Wilson started slow, but is finishing very strong. He evolved from a game manager to a game changer right in front of our eyes. Wilson, Marshawn Lynch, and their stellar defense carry each other and the Seahawks may be a scary team in the NFC playoffs. Andrew Luck is the most traditional among the 3 rookies. He is an incredibly good passer for a rookie, but he does have some ugliness with his interception and completion percentage numbers - much like you would expect of a rookie QB. But his 4000+ yards passing and the innumerable 4-Th quarter comebacks have put the Colts in the playoffs despite a bad defense and a non-existent running game. 

RG III is the most sensational of the gang. He has put up some impressive numbers both with his arm and legs all season and is part of a balanced team much like the Seahawks, but very different. The Redskins, led by the 2 rookies - RG III and RB Albert Morris, eliminated the Dallas Cowboys today in the very last game of the regular season to win the division and make the playoffs. Romo and the Cowboys are staring at another miserable off-season as Romo threw some horrible interceptions and lost an elimination game once again. They are in trouble. They can't be doing this every year. Something has to change. They need a real GM and a new head coach. Romo is talented, but needs to be reined in. That simple! The strange part of that division was the Giants missing the playoffs altogether. How does that team with a supposedly buttoned-up, disciplinarian coach in Tom Coughlin and so much talent be so inconsistent and wildly unpredictable? They did end the year at 9-7 - better than the Cowboys, but no playoffs for either team.  The division was won by the Redskins whose coaching staff deserve a lot of credit for building an unique offense that perfectly leverages their rookie QB's strengths.  They won 7 straight to make it to the playoffs and will host Russell Wilson at home. That means at least one of the rookie QBs will be playing in the next round of the playoffs too, which will be amazing. 

With all that said, the real story of this season was All Day, Adrian Peterson. He almost obliterated Eric Dickerson's long standing yardage record with that reconstructed knee. For him to come back from that gruesome knee injury in less than a year with the ferocity and effectiveness he displayed leaves me speechless. Too bad he fell just 9 yards short of the record, but rushing for more than 2000 yards is always impressive, with or without a damaged knee. I can't wait to watch this guy in the playoffs. His performance almost put the unbelievable story of Peyton Manning's amazing comeback in the back burner. How about Manning leading the Denver Broncos to the top seed in the entire AFC behind a 11 game winning streak? He went from a shaky 2-3 start to a 13-3 record in no time! With the Texans choking away their season-long lead in the last 2 weeks, the Broncos are now owners of home-court throughout the playoffs. The rookie QBs and All Day are over-shadowing Manning now, but won't for long. A Manning-Brady AFC championship game seems very likely and I can't even imagine the attention and hype that game and Manning will get if and when that happens. To quote the Jets linebacker Bart Scott, "can't wait." 

Bizarro NBA

Christmas defines the holiday season and on the sports calendar, it also signifies the unofficial start of the NBA season. People start caring about the NBA starting with the Christmas day games on network TV. Actually, given NFL's popularity these days, it's more like the NBA gets some momentary attention on Christmas day, but sports fans still don't really care about it - or anything else for that matter, until the Super Bowl is over.  It has gotten to a point where Nuggets coach George Karl actually suggested NBA should permanently open on Christmas day like they did after the lockout in 2011. That will never happen, but we did get our filling of 5 games on ESPN and ABC on Christmas day. The Lakers seemed to be energized by Steve Nash's return and won their fifth straight against a tough Knicks team but they lost again on boxing day. This team is still in a flux. There is widespread belief that they will right the ship and be there at the end, but experts are also coming around to agreeing this Lakers team may not be a contender after all and they are probably staring at a first round exit. I think the ceiling for this team might be the second round or may be the Western conference finals if they get lucky, but nothing more.

The real story in the league is LA's other team. The LA Clippers have won 15 straight and have the best record in the league. It's truly the bizarro world in the NBA this season with not only the Clippers but also the Golden State Warriors in the top 5 in the Western conference. Whats happening to this world? Actually, both these teams are for real and legit. The Warriors have a great collection of young talent in Klay Thompson, Harrison Barnes, Draymond Green, and Festus Ezeli to go with their potential All-stars in Steph Curry and David Lee. They have good chemistry, great shooting, and David Lee's activity and smarts keeps the painted area friendly and hospitable. The Clippers on the other hand have totally taken the next step from last season when they gained legitimacy with the Chris Paul trade. They lost a  lot of their depth in the trade for him, but they have built their bench back up in less than a year.  Now they have Lamar Odom, Jamal Crawford, Eric Bledsoe, Grant Hill, and Chauncey Billups with some of those guys still not even back from injuries. I don't consider them to be contenders or better than the Thunder, but they should be in the final 4 in the West, which basically means the final 5 in the entire league counting the Heat.

With Nash aging and balling with the enemy in Laker-land, Chris Paul might be my favorite player in the NBA right now. This guy has an amazing attitude and phenomenal leadership credentials to go with a superstar game and is fun to watch when he is running with those athletes he has on his roster. CP3 is the best PG in the league right now. He is always connected to Deron Williams because of their draft class, but Deron seems to be getting more recognition for being a coach-killer than for being a point guard as the Nets fired their coach Avery Johnson today after their slump in December. I was expecting the Nets to be a force this year, but it looks like the East will still be a playground for the Heat and the Bulls, once Derrick Rose is back. The other team I am wishing well is the Houston Rockets. I like both James Harden and Jeremy Lin. Harden is having a great season and Lin seems to be turning it around lately. Thats a fun team to watch and I hope to see them giving some contenders a lot of trouble in the playoffs. NBA is always fun. It would be even better if my Phoenix Suns are winning, but we will be entertained by the NBA this year anyways.

NFL needs some elbow room

2 straight weeks in the NFL, 2 tragic deaths with serious collateral damage. Kansas City Chiefs' Jevon Belcher killed his girlfriend last weekend before taking his own life and orphaning his baby daughter. This weekend, Dallas Cowboys' Jerry Brown, a practice squad linebacker was killed in a car crash. The driver was Josh Brent, who ended up in jail for intoxication manslaughter. But the NFL kept playing like nothing ever happened. Games were not even postponed for an hour, let alone canceled for the weekend. Football is big business and every game is like an event of epic proportion. Aside from the national TV impact of these games, there are many other problems with postponing any single game. There are a lot of people who travel long distances for watching these games. The travel impact for regular season baseball and basketball should be so trivial compared to football, though I would guess baseball travelers out-number the basketball travelers. Fantasy football is a huge part of football's popularity whether or not the NFL wants to accept it and missing a game this time of the year will screw up a whole lot of fantasy playoff races too. Of course, the fantasizers have to handle it like the player was injured or the team was on a bye and I think it's manageable.

The biggest problem NFL has when it comes to postponing these games is that, at this point of the season, the schedule has absolutely no slack. The bye weeks are over and it's wall to wall games until the hype week leading into the Super Bowl. I suggest they give up the hype week and introduce an extra bye week between week 17 and the playoffs.  That way, NFL can postpone some games to "week 18" if need be and the Super Bowl will still be on the same weekend and the season doesn't have to stretch further out. The hype week is overdone anyways. The Super Bowl guests can afford to have one less playboy party during that week. NFL needs that extra week in-season. I believe they should have rescheduled both the games affected by deaths the last 2 weekends. It's just basic decency to do so. Especially last week when Belcher killed himself in the parking lot of the stadium in Kansas City. I was surprised the NFL didn't postpone that game to Monday night. That would have at least been minimally symbolic and NFL didn't even extend that courtesy. In the NBA, they could play games on back to back nights and in MLB, they could even play 2 on the same day. And there are empty days during their long seasons to squeeze games when necessary. NFL season is just 17 weeks and is a brutally physical game. It's impossible to play more than once a week and there are no slack weeks in the schedule. Time to introduce that slack at the end of the season.

As for the on-field action, the Cowboys won the game against the Bengals on a last second field goal on this emotional day and I could only imagine the pressure the kicker was in as he lined up for that kick under those strange circumstances.The Cowboys continue to be one of those enigmatic teams and they win when they should lose and vice versa. The New York Giants, the other enigmatic team from the same division crushed the New Orleans Saints and pretty much confirmed that Drew Brees won't be in the playoffs this season. RG III has a knee problem which threatens his status for the next game. Not a great news for yours truly who was counting on him for the fantasy playoff run. The Redskins definitely need him to continue the magical run as well in the nation's capital, where he is being rightfully accused of single handedly reviving football. The other rookie who is making magic in Indy won again. It's going to be an interesting rookie of the year contest between Andrew Luck and RG III. The MVP contest is also going to be tight the way Adrian Peterson has been performing lately. He is an amazing specimen. He is going to give Peyton Manning a serious run for his money. Coincidentally, both are eligible for the comeback player of the year too since they are both back from serious injuries. After 14 weeks, I would split the vote between those 2. I pick Peterson for the MVP and Manning for the comeback player, though the final vote, I suspect, will go the other way.

To Kaep or not to Kaep

The call Jim Harbaugh had to make a couple of weeks back was indeed tough. He decided to switch to Colin Kaepernick, who finally lost a game today against the Saint Louis Rams. Kaep made 2 or 3 costly mistakes that betrayed his inexperience. This is not to say Alex Smith is a better QB or even that he would have won the game against the Rams, but Smith probably wouldn't have made those exact mistakes. He could have made 2 or 0 or 10 other mistakes, but not those specific ones. Kaep ran back almost 20 yards and ended up in his own end-zone taking a safety. Even if Smith wanted to make that same stupid play, he couldn't have because he is not as athletic as Kaep to run away from the pass rush for 20 yards backwards. The other big mistake was Kaep's pitch to Ted Ginn Jr. deep in his own territory that flew over Ginn's head resulting in a fumble recovery and a TD for the Rams. That was a bad play-call more than anything else, but it was still Kaep's fault for not executing it right. It's hard to speak in hypotheticals, but a seasoned QB like Alex Smith would have had a lot more experience making such pitches, or any other play for that matter. Kaep is inexperienced and that increases the exposure to risks of all kind as we saw today.

This was the most baffling part of this whole saga for me especially if we rewind the clock 2 weeks back going into the Saints game, which Kaep eventually started, played well, and won. I was surprised at the media and some fans even asking for Kaep. Young QBs are going to lose you some games just on their own. That's true for even top prospects like Andrew Luck and RG-III. You pay that price and accept that risk for the rewards down the road. Colts, for instance, are hoping to be a perennial playoff contender between 2014 and 2025 or whatever and they are more than happy to let Luck take his lumps in 2012 and crash and burn and learn. They probably cheer every time he throws a pick because a smart, talented QB like that is going to learn from it and get better every day. They don't care a whole lot about their win-loss record this year, though that is changing fast with the way Luck is already leading them to the playoffs. Same with the Redskins and RG-III. Kaepernick is in the same growth phase too, but the difference is, his team is not. The niners are a legitimate super bowl contender in 2012 and they cannot afford losing a game or 2 because of Kaep's immaturity. A single loss could be the difference between the niners hosting the NFL championship game or a playoff game at the stick versus going to a hostile environment on the road. That's no joke. The safe option would have been to stick with the veteran Alex Smith and mitigate the risks. Why fix something that ain't broken?

On the flip side, I do agree with all the expert's analysis that Kaep's upside is probably better than Alex and he has the potential to be a deadlier, better, and a more accurate passer than Smith. Harbaugh obviously agrees with that given that they traded up to draft him last season and he has been sneaking him in through those wildcat packages all season, much more than Rex Ryan has been doing with Tebow. Harbaugh finally slowed down the wildcat experiments when it clearly started affecting Alex Smith's rhythm, but then Smith got hurt and we all got to see Kaep play complete games. Harbaugh couldn't resist putting his boy in and taking the risk hoping for the rewards of the higher upside. I am sure he agonized over this decision. On the one had, he had a QB in Smith who had won him a tonne of games including the playoff game against the Saints last season where he was brilliant, and was completing over 70% of his passes this season. On the other hand was the perceived limitations of Smith which were exposed by the NY Giants in the other playoff game last season and the hope that Kaepernick does not suffer from the same limitations. If Kaep was going to be the future, why not start the future today? But the safer choice would have definitely been to stick with Smith for this year and if he loved Kaep that much, turn the reins over to him next year right from the start.

Super Bowl contenders don't change their starting QBs halfway through the season. Most super bowl contenders are not led by first year starters either. I am not saying Kaep cannot do it for sure this year and it will all play out soon in front of your eyes. Dan Marino and Tom Brady have taken their teams to the Super Bowl in their first year as starters - Marino as a rookie and Brady won the Super Bowl as a second year, injury replacement much like Kaep. But it's definitely not a common occurrence. My gut says it won't happen with these niners either. I pick Kaep and the niners to fall short of the Super Bowl again making us wonder what would have happened with Smith at the helm. I think Kaep will play well, show flashes of brilliance, and realize some of that potential everybody sees, but won't go all the way this season. The real unlucky guy is all this is Alex Smith. Not only did he lose his job to a concussion, he lost it while having the best season of his career and as a league leader in completion percentage. Things always seem to work against this guy. Harbaugh doesn't seem like the sentimental type, but many people say he should have gone back to Smith out of loyalty and fairness. But some people agree with him and say he should stick with the guy he thinks gives him the best chance to win the Super Bowl and that clearly is Kaepernick in Harbaugh's mind. So he went with the bottom line - loyalty be damned. Nice guys finish last. Harbaugh is a lot of things, nice is not one of them. But he might now have to deal with some bad karma.