The call Jim Harbaugh had to make a couple of weeks back was indeed tough. He decided to switch to Colin Kaepernick, who finally lost a game today against the Saint Louis Rams. Kaep made 2 or 3 costly mistakes that betrayed his inexperience. This is not to say Alex Smith is a better QB or even that he would have won the game against the Rams, but Smith probably wouldn't have made those exact mistakes. He could have made 2 or 0 or 10 other mistakes, but not those specific ones. Kaep ran back almost 20 yards and ended up in his own end-zone taking a safety. Even if Smith wanted to make that same stupid play, he couldn't have because he is not as athletic as Kaep to run away from the pass rush for 20 yards backwards. The other big mistake was Kaep's pitch to Ted Ginn Jr. deep in his own territory that flew over Ginn's head resulting in a fumble recovery and a TD for the Rams. That was a bad play-call more than anything else, but it was still Kaep's fault for not executing it right. It's hard to speak in hypotheticals, but a seasoned QB like Alex Smith would have had a lot more experience making such pitches, or any other play for that matter. Kaep is inexperienced and that increases the exposure to risks of all kind as we saw today.
This was the most baffling part of this whole saga for me especially if we rewind the clock 2 weeks back going into the Saints game, which Kaep eventually started, played well, and won. I was surprised at the media and some fans even asking for Kaep. Young QBs are going to lose you some games just on their own. That's true for even top prospects like Andrew Luck and RG-III. You pay that price and accept that risk for the rewards down the road. Colts, for instance, are hoping to be a perennial playoff contender between 2014 and 2025 or whatever and they are more than happy to let Luck take his lumps in 2012 and crash and burn and learn. They probably cheer every time he throws a pick because a smart, talented QB like that is going to learn from it and get better every day. They don't care a whole lot about their win-loss record this year, though that is changing fast with the way Luck is already leading them to the playoffs. Same with the Redskins and RG-III. Kaepernick is in the same growth phase too, but the difference is, his team is not. The niners are a legitimate super bowl contender in 2012 and they cannot afford losing a game or 2 because of Kaep's immaturity. A single loss could be the difference between the niners hosting the NFL championship game or a playoff game at the stick versus going to a hostile environment on the road. That's no joke. The safe option would have been to stick with the veteran Alex Smith and mitigate the risks. Why fix something that ain't broken?
On the flip side, I do agree with all the expert's analysis that Kaep's upside is probably better than Alex and he has the potential to be a deadlier, better, and a more accurate passer than Smith. Harbaugh obviously agrees with that given that they traded up to draft him last season and he has been sneaking him in through those wildcat packages all season, much more than Rex Ryan has been doing with Tebow. Harbaugh finally slowed down the wildcat experiments when it clearly started affecting Alex Smith's rhythm, but then Smith got hurt and we all got to see Kaep play complete games. Harbaugh couldn't resist putting his boy in and taking the risk hoping for the rewards of the higher upside. I am sure he agonized over this decision. On the one had, he had a QB in Smith who had won him a tonne of games including the playoff game against the Saints last season where he was brilliant, and was completing over 70% of his passes this season. On the other hand was the perceived limitations of Smith which were exposed by the NY Giants in the other playoff game last season and the hope that Kaepernick does not suffer from the same limitations. If Kaep was going to be the future, why not start the future today? But the safer choice would have definitely been to stick with Smith for this year and if he loved Kaep that much, turn the reins over to him next year right from the start.
Super Bowl contenders don't change their starting QBs halfway through the season. Most super bowl contenders are not led by first year starters either. I am not saying Kaep cannot do it for sure this year and it will all play out soon in front of your eyes. Dan Marino and Tom Brady have taken their teams to the Super Bowl in their first year as starters - Marino as a rookie and Brady won the Super Bowl as a second year, injury replacement much like Kaep. But it's definitely not a common occurrence. My gut says it won't happen with these niners either. I pick Kaep and the niners to fall short of the Super Bowl again making us wonder what would have happened with Smith at the helm. I think Kaep will play well, show flashes of brilliance, and realize some of that potential everybody sees, but won't go all the way this season. The real unlucky guy is all this is Alex Smith. Not only did he lose his job to a concussion, he lost it while having the best season of his career and as a league leader in completion percentage. Things always seem to work against this guy. Harbaugh doesn't seem like the sentimental type, but many people say he should have gone back to Smith out of loyalty and fairness. But some people agree with him and say he should stick with the guy he thinks gives him the best chance to win the Super Bowl and that clearly is Kaepernick in Harbaugh's mind. So he went with the bottom line - loyalty be damned. Nice guys finish last. Harbaugh is a lot of things, nice is not one of them. But he might now have to deal with some bad karma.
This was the most baffling part of this whole saga for me especially if we rewind the clock 2 weeks back going into the Saints game, which Kaep eventually started, played well, and won. I was surprised at the media and some fans even asking for Kaep. Young QBs are going to lose you some games just on their own. That's true for even top prospects like Andrew Luck and RG-III. You pay that price and accept that risk for the rewards down the road. Colts, for instance, are hoping to be a perennial playoff contender between 2014 and 2025 or whatever and they are more than happy to let Luck take his lumps in 2012 and crash and burn and learn. They probably cheer every time he throws a pick because a smart, talented QB like that is going to learn from it and get better every day. They don't care a whole lot about their win-loss record this year, though that is changing fast with the way Luck is already leading them to the playoffs. Same with the Redskins and RG-III. Kaepernick is in the same growth phase too, but the difference is, his team is not. The niners are a legitimate super bowl contender in 2012 and they cannot afford losing a game or 2 because of Kaep's immaturity. A single loss could be the difference between the niners hosting the NFL championship game or a playoff game at the stick versus going to a hostile environment on the road. That's no joke. The safe option would have been to stick with the veteran Alex Smith and mitigate the risks. Why fix something that ain't broken?
On the flip side, I do agree with all the expert's analysis that Kaep's upside is probably better than Alex and he has the potential to be a deadlier, better, and a more accurate passer than Smith. Harbaugh obviously agrees with that given that they traded up to draft him last season and he has been sneaking him in through those wildcat packages all season, much more than Rex Ryan has been doing with Tebow. Harbaugh finally slowed down the wildcat experiments when it clearly started affecting Alex Smith's rhythm, but then Smith got hurt and we all got to see Kaep play complete games. Harbaugh couldn't resist putting his boy in and taking the risk hoping for the rewards of the higher upside. I am sure he agonized over this decision. On the one had, he had a QB in Smith who had won him a tonne of games including the playoff game against the Saints last season where he was brilliant, and was completing over 70% of his passes this season. On the other hand was the perceived limitations of Smith which were exposed by the NY Giants in the other playoff game last season and the hope that Kaepernick does not suffer from the same limitations. If Kaep was going to be the future, why not start the future today? But the safer choice would have definitely been to stick with Smith for this year and if he loved Kaep that much, turn the reins over to him next year right from the start.
Super Bowl contenders don't change their starting QBs halfway through the season. Most super bowl contenders are not led by first year starters either. I am not saying Kaep cannot do it for sure this year and it will all play out soon in front of your eyes. Dan Marino and Tom Brady have taken their teams to the Super Bowl in their first year as starters - Marino as a rookie and Brady won the Super Bowl as a second year, injury replacement much like Kaep. But it's definitely not a common occurrence. My gut says it won't happen with these niners either. I pick Kaep and the niners to fall short of the Super Bowl again making us wonder what would have happened with Smith at the helm. I think Kaep will play well, show flashes of brilliance, and realize some of that potential everybody sees, but won't go all the way this season. The real unlucky guy is all this is Alex Smith. Not only did he lose his job to a concussion, he lost it while having the best season of his career and as a league leader in completion percentage. Things always seem to work against this guy. Harbaugh doesn't seem like the sentimental type, but many people say he should have gone back to Smith out of loyalty and fairness. But some people agree with him and say he should stick with the guy he thinks gives him the best chance to win the Super Bowl and that clearly is Kaepernick in Harbaugh's mind. So he went with the bottom line - loyalty be damned. Nice guys finish last. Harbaugh is a lot of things, nice is not one of them. But he might now have to deal with some bad karma.
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