Mavericks sitting pretty

They always say you learn more from your losses than your victories and I was counting on that when Dallas lost game 1 at Miami. For some reason, I felt like it was a good thing for the Mavs. Dallas has this vibe of a veteran, mature team that learns and adjusts game to game. They also have the depth to switch things up and Rick Carlisle is a thinking man's coach. He is not headed to the hall of fame yet, but I consider him to be under-rated. Also, game 1 was on the road and the Heat are a young team prone to letting things get to their head and can act immature at times. I think both Wade and LeBron still have these youthful tendencies and that shows from time to time. They don't possess the killer instinct of a Kobe or a MJ and don't effectively step on the throat of the opponent when the opportunity presents itself. All this led to my belief that the Mavs are going to be fine after the game 1 loss and even be better for it. I thought they will learn from it, adjust, and come out with a more aggressive game plan for game 2.

Of course, all my theories looked shaky when the Mavs were trailing by 15 with around 6 minutes to go in game 2. This is a close series between 2 equally matched teams and the Mavs were doing very well in the first half. But then the Heat went on one of it's runs and the Mavs suddenly were staring at a 15 point deficit and some early celebrations from the Heat. Here is the amazing thing about this Dallas team and Nowitzki. They never give up. They have supreme confidence and never panic. They did to the Heat what they did to the Thunder earlier in the playoffs. They focussed a little more on the defensive end, unleashed Nowitzki on the offensive end and chipped away at the lead. Next thing you know, the lead was gone and the Heat didn't know what to do. When LeBron and Wade start hoisting long 3's, you know you have a shot at winning. They have become decent long-range shooters, but still thats not their game. As a defense, thats exactly what you want them to do. LeBron has been making more of these shots in the clutch than in the past, but still he is "settling" anytime he attempts those and we saw a few of those in that 4-Th quarter of game 2.

Mavs finally outdid themselves when Nowitzki kept scoring and killed the Heat down the stretch. At least they needed overtime during their comeback against the Thunder, but Nowitzki finished things in regulation here. May be it was the Heat's premature celebration that fueled this run. Whatever it was, it wasn't pretty for the Miami Heat or it's big 3. Jason Terry did his best to give the Heat a shot at redemption when he left a 3-point shooter wide-open, but Nowitzki erased that mistake in a hurry at the other end. It was either that or he was going to erase Jason Terry off the face of the Earth after the game! Thats how angry he was after Terry's defensive brain-cramp. Reminded me of Nowitzki publicly yelling at Terry after Nash nailed a 3 to tie a playoff game for the Suns back in 2005. But Nowitzki is a lot more mature these days. He didn't show any emotion on the court, but apparently was hot in the huddle during the timeout. Terry seems like a good guy, but it's funny how he always finds himself in the middle of something interesting.

Now the series goes to Dallas for 3 straight games. It has traditionally been hard for teams to win all of those 3 middle games. The reason for that is very simple. It's just hard to beat a good team 3 times in a row and more often than not, good teams make it to the NBA finals. It can happen if there's a big talent differential between the 2 contending teams. But thats not the case here. So I expect Miami to steal one game out of the 3. Then the series becomes even more interesting and Miami would have won home court back at that point. Thats when home court is truly relevant because game 6 and 7 would be at home and it's almost impossible to win game 7 on the road. If anybody can, it's this Dallas team with the experience and depth. Still if I were Dallas, I wouldn't want to "take my talents to South Beach" for that game 7 on the road. So this is basically a 4 game series for Dallas now where they have to win 3. Doable for sure and thats why that game 2 win was big. But game 3 is also equally big. If Heat comes back and wins game 3, momentum is right back on their side and probably will never return to Dallas again. But if the Mavs win game 3, then the pressure builds on the Heat and Dallas can really work it.

When it's all said and done, I think Dallas takes it in 6.

Cuban or LeBron

The NBA finals that most people did not expect and I personally did not want is here. Either LeBron James or Mark Cuban - two of the most polarizing figures in all of sports, will win their first championship. Of course, Nowitzki, Kidd, Marion, Bosh and a bunch of others are also in line for their first ring. But those kids are not as polarizing as the two principals in this contest. In fact, I personally don't mind some of them winning a ring and would actually like them to. Case in point, Kidd and Marion. I would be happy for those 2 if they win. Nowitzki is not too "hatable" either. My only regret about him winning a ring would be that he would have it before his buddy Steve Nash, who the Mavs and the Cubans let go. This ring will never vindicate that stupid move, but some people in the media and Cuban would try to spin it that way. Being a Suns fan, it's really the Nash angle that makes me hate on the Dallas in this context. Otherwise, they are definitely the team to root for in the finals for all of us who didn't appreciate the big-3 coming together and LeBron dumping Cleveland through the "decision".

The Nash-Dallas discussion is very nuanced and I feel compelled to get into before these finals. First and foremost, shame on Robert Sarver and the Suns management that the Suns have still not even made it to the Finals with Nash. It's not Nash's fault that Cuban and Nowitzki have gotten to the finals twice without Nash while the Suns management has just refused to invest and improve the team. In fact, by letting a blue chip talent like Amare walk last off-season, they have made sure Nash will probably not win a championship, at least not with the Suns. When Nash first moved to the Suns, they were better than the Mavs and then the tide turned when the Suns ownership stopped feeding the beast - the core of that great 2004 Suns team. Cuban on the other hand has not showered money like he used to when he originally bought the Mavs, but he has definitely tried to improve the team and has spent the money when and where required. This has kept Nowitzki well-fed with solid talent all around. It's ridiculous how deep this Dallas roster is.

Secondly, when Cuban traded for Kidd, it was an implicit acceptance that the Nash decision was a mistake and that he had to go back to a legitimate assist machine in the form of Jason Kidd. Granted, you could argue that Kidd is a better defender than Nash, but that was not the driver in Cuban getting him. The Dallas system and Nowitzki needed a legitimate point guard and Cuban made a mistake by letting Nash go and he made it right by getting Kidd back. Last but not the least, one could even argue that the Mavs could have done better with Nash and the rest of that roster Cuban has built over the last 6 years. The catch this year was Chandler anyways! So who knows where Cuban and Nowitzki could have been with Nash around them. So given all these dimensions, it would be hard for me to digest a Dallas championship. There is a little sadist in every one of us that doesn't want to see certain teams and athletes win, especially their first championship. I hate the Lakers but I was counting on them to beat the Heat even if the Heat got past everybody else. It was so much more important to stop the first championship for the Heat than to stop the 6-Th for the hated Kobe and the Lakers.

Now that we are stuck with this finals match-up, who do I root for and who do I think will win? After all the drama of the last off-season and the totally unexpected gang-up of 3 of the most sought-after free agents of the 2010 class, I just cannot bring myself to root for the Miami Heat. They signify everything thats bad about the way free agency in the NBA should be managed. Granted, they came together to win, but this is just not the way to do it. And if they win this year in their first season together, it's just too easy! I can't even imagine how arrogant these guys will be next year if they win it this year after all the drama and losing streaks. I still maintain they are not championship material. LeBron is, but the Heat as a team are not. They are just catching the league on a down year when the Celtics and the Lakers have both mysteriously took a step back while the Bulls and the Thunder are on the way up, but not all the way up there yet. So I don't want them to win. Do they have a shot? Of course they do. With LeBron and that defense they play, I can totally see them winning it all. But the Dallas Mavericks are slightly better and Nowitzki is balling out of his mind. So the Mavs will hoist the Larry O'Brien trophy. I also want them to win, I think.