Hope, no Change

The NBA draft is in the books and I have to write about it given it was the Phoenix Suns at the top spot of the draft for the first time ever. NBA Finals is not the only thing the Suns have never won before. They have never won the draft lottery either. This year, they won the lottery and we sure hope it was a precursor to bigger and better things to come. They got DeAndre Ayton with the first pick as expected and did some maneuvering at 16 to trade with Philly to get Mikal Bridges from them, who had drafted Bridges at 10. I like both players and Bridges is probably ready to contribute right away even more than Ayton. There are some questions about the trade and let's get to that in a bit. Overall, the Suns came out of this draft with a lot of hope for the future and thats all you can ask for on draft night. They also ended up drafting French point guard Elie Okobo at 31, which might end up being a great, under the radar move in the long run. At least thats what I am hoping. I am definitely excited for sure for the Suns' future.

The story of the draft night of course starts with the first pick. Despite hiring Luka Doncic's ex-coach to lead the next generation of the Suns, they never seemed to be interested in drafting Luka or anybody else at one. It was Ayton all the way and I like it. He is bit of a project, especially on the defensive end, and thats not that big a knock on a young one-and-done guy. What I like about him though is that he is a bug guy who merges traditional big-men skills with the new-age requirements. There is a theory that big men are increasingly becoming irrelevant in this 3-and-D era spearheaded by the current Champs Warriors. In the playoffs, there were several games where teams couldn't even play their franchise centers since they couldn't hit threes and they were not switchable on the small guards. Thats where the league is headed in terms of the style of play, but I also think these things go in circles.

There will soon be a need for franchise centers if Anthony Davis, Karl Anthony Towns, and Joel Embid blossom in to serious contenders, which may realistically happen. I want Ayton to be there to defend them if not join them in the pantheon of great big-men in the league. He has the size and strength to be that traditional center while also having the athleticism and shooting touch that teams covet in today's offense. He has a good mid-range shot and will probably expand to 3-point range in the NBA. The concern is defense. Both his shot blocking numbers, which is more representative of traditional center skills, and defending on switches, which is the new norm in the NBA, were suspect in college. There are some stats to show that shot blocking numbers don't usually improve in the NBA all that much for these young guys. I am not too worried about all that and I sure hope the 19 year-old kid only improves on that side of the ball like he should. As a Suns fan, how can you pass up on a stud center? We never could get a good center and I am totally excited we finally had a shot at one, thanks to the draft lottery and some serious tanking last season. On the flip side, I sure hope the Suns center-curse doesn't derail Ayton. That would be a disaster!

The most developed player in the draft of course is Luka Doncic. The Mavs did great to trade up to the third spot to nab him from Atlanta, who seem to have been really impressed with Trae Young. I would have taken Luka myself, but Atlanta's GM Travis Schlenk, who came from the Golden State Warriors, seems to be seeing some Stephen Curry potential in Young. He better be right for Atlanta's sake because I think Luka is going to be good either way. He might win the rookie of the year, though I hope players like Ayton, Young, and Michael Porter Jr. catch up to him in a year or two. Speaking of, the other main story of the draft was MPJ dropping in the draft due to injury concerns. Denver finally got him at 14 - pretty low for the best player coming out of high school last year, but a risky pick due to his back.  Denver, with a near playoff team and a lot of young players, was in a good spot to roll the dice. They could survive his absence even in MPJ has to miss an entire year, which is something most lottery teams can't afford including your Phoenix Suns. Plus, they would be giddy and unstoppable if he indeed turns out to be the next Kevin Durant or Tracy McGrady in 4 years.

Last, but not the least, the trade. The Suns gave up Zhaire Smith and the 2021 unrestricted Miami pick for Mikal Bridges, who is much more of a finished product than Smith. It's always a bit of a red flag when GMs who are under pressure to show results to save their jobs mortgage the future for immediate results. This trade kind of fits that narrative, but Mikal might be worth it. To be fair to Suns GM Ryan McDonough, aren't we all as Suns fans ready for some results and improvement as well? Also, given that Devin Booker is entering his fourth year and contractual discussions sooner than later, it's not a bad idea to show some growth and get him a taste of the playoffs anyways. It's fascinating to trace the movement of these picks from back in 2012 when the Suns traded away Steve Nash and then Goran Dragic a few years later. This Bridges trade puts a bow on both those trades after many years. Folks like ESPN's Zach Lowe think it's bad management of assets, but I think it's OK. I will also be rooting for the Heat to be good in 2020 so that the 2021 pick is not too high for the Sixers. I have to say, it was brutal to see the Sixers trade Bridges away after drafting this local kid to be a co-worker with his mom, who works in the Sixers HR department. What a weird roller-coaster ride for that family.

The bottom-line for the Suns is, they can now develop a core of Booker, Josh Jackson, Ayton, and Bridges. That has some serious potential.  For 2018, they may need to get a point guard via trade or free agency or hope Brandon Knight or Alfred Payton suddenly rediscovers their potential, which is unlikely. Equally unlikely is any dramatic growth from Marquese Chriss. The hope is, the rookies and Dragan Bender step up. We know Booker and JJ will be even better this year. The combination of these developments could put the Suns in the 40-win range, if not the 8th seed of the playoffs. That sounds like both a modest goal as well as a distant pipe- dream at the same time. As the saying goes, hope springs eternal and there is a lot of hope for the Suns and other teams coming out of the draft. One thing there wasn't much of on draft day was a lot of change in scenery for stars like Kawhi Leonard. There were a lot of trades, but none involving current stars. That only means more action in July during free agency, Sounds fun to me.

Gentleman's three-peat.

The Dubs swept the Cavs and were even better than I had expected. They wrapped up their parade today and are all set for the off-season. I expected a gentleman's sweep in 5 like last year. Instead we got a quick sweep for a gentleman's three-peat for the Dubs. After that game 1 debacle, Cavs were mentally done. The Dubs now have 3 of 4 championships for what I call a gentleman's three-peat. They technically have only a back-to-back championship, but then the year before that in 2016, they won a record 73 games and lost the ring by a single shot in game 7 of the NBA finals. They are definitely a dynasty. They have earned the right to be considered for the best ever team along with the giants of the game like the Lakers, Bulls, and the Celtics. Not many teams have had a top-4 talent like this team and they have done exactly what they wanted to do when they got Kervin Durant 2 years back.

I don't know how KD personally feels about all this, but this has to be 2 of his best years in the league. He has now won 2 championships and 2 finals' MVP. He has had 2 signature, dagger three-pointers on the road in the finals to clinch pivotal game 3's both years, which will forever play in a loop in his career highlights. He is a better basketball player and the game is also so much more easier for him in Oakland compared to what it was in Oklahoma City because of all the talent around him here. The Bay loves Curry, but KD still gets his due and the team needs him when all else fails. He is a tremendous offensive weapon and while he was up and down at times during these playoffs with his defensive effort and iso-ball tendencies, you still can't deny his talent and performance nor his Finals MVP. While Curry was the sentimental favorite and even a legitimate candidate for that award, nobody can complain about KD winning it for the second time in a row.

The NBA off-season is now officially in play. LeBron's free agency is the headliner. For the Dubs, it will be about re-stocking the bench with younger talent and coming in with some drive and focus to contend for their 4th championship in 5 years. They do have to sign KD to an extension and see if Klay and/or Draymond will talk contract and take less money now ahead of their eventual free agency. I do expect the challenge for them next season to be external unlike the internal challenges like complacency they seemed to have fought this year. I expect Houston with it's strong core and Lakers with their salary cap space to try and create a super-team that can take down the Dubs. Boston and Philly in the East will organically develop into strong contenders as well, though those teams maybe a year away. I wouldn't be surprised if the Celtics take down the Dubs in 2020 finals and they will still be a contender in 2019. The story as always come back to LeBron. I expect him to be in the middle of some super-team formation this July. Paul George, Chris Paul, and Kawhi Leonard are the other big whales in free agency and trade rumors. Lets see how all of this shakes out and who convinces who to play where alongside them.

I will miss this NBA season, especially these playoffs. It's been one fun ride, but bring on Deandre Ayton and the draft for the Phoenix Suns!

NBA is living large

The Finals kicked off yesterday in style. What was supposed to be a boring, one-sided matchup turned into one of the craziest overtime thriller in recent memory. Warriors won, matching most people's expectations including mine, but the game went nothing like I had expected. My pick was and still is Dubs in 5, maybe 6 if they sleep walk through the series, but the way LeBron showed up and hooped yesterday, you almost have to expect a 6 or 7 game series. He dropped a super efficient 51 and made one of the best defenses in the league look absolutely helpless and clueless. Andre Iguodala was not playing, but the defense can't be this soft without him. Like somebody tweeted yesterday, if he makes so much of a difference to this loaded team, we are either over-estimating the big-4 or underestimating Iggy. Good point! I think we are under-estimating Iggy. Plus, LeBron was on fire yesterday. Even Iggy might not have made much of a difference.

Durant spent a lot of time defending LeBron and was largely ineffective. The Dubs seemed to want to fight through screens and stick with the primary defender on LeBron when he tried to switch Curry on to him. This is different from the Houston series and Harden where you just can't give anybody any daylight because of the conscience-free three point shooting. You can afford to switch back on LeBron and give some opening to the other Cavs. I felt like they did that a lot more in the first half, but Durant didn't fight through the screens and gave up easy in the second. Durant is so talented that he ended up with decent numbers at the end, but he played a mediocre game at best. Aside from the zero-impact defense on LeBron, he was also the guy who was pushed aside by J.R.Smth of all people on that rebound on the missed free throw at the end. Durant can't let that happen. He was abused on the boards in game 7 against the Rockets as well. Anyways, Curry was a lot better and Dubs won with a B+ to A- performance. They were not horrible, but they can be better.

The story of the game was really LeBron. He was just amazing and his legend is growing with every game in these playoffs. At age 33, he is doing more to embellish his hall of fame resume than he did at age 28 or 29 when his legs were a lot younger and his resume a lot lighter. He has carried these under-staffed Cavs to the Finals and in game 1, almost got them a 1-0 series lead. At the end of the day he couldn't and the story became the reversed foul call, missed George Hill free throw, and JR's stupidity. These plays have been rehashed non-stop for the last 24 hours and I will spare you the details, but my take in a nutshell is as follows. They got the call reversal right. You can question the motive for the review, but the result of the review was correct as confirmed by the league today as well. The missed FT happens. Durant actually missed 3 of his first 4 FTs in game 7 of WCF. Pressure and stress spares no one and Hill became the latest victim. J.R.Smith is just as much a strength as a liability and I am not surprised he lost track of the score. Also, who knows if JR's put-back or even a hypothetical LeBron James shot goes in if thats how things played out.

At the end of the day, JR Smith became the goat and saved both Hill ad Durant from some embarrassing questions. The Dubs won in OT, but they need to do something about the LeBron James problem, I can't wait for game 2 to see what both sides do - Dubs from a defensive strategy perspective and Cavs from just the mental perspective of recovering from that rough ending in game 1. It's been an interesting playoffs for the Golden State Warriors. They were never threatened in the playoffs last year, but they just came out of a 7-game fist-fight against the Rockets who gave them all they can handle and then some. Chris Paul stole both game 4 and 5 to put the Dubs in a major hole. He then got hurt and many people are convinced that this changed the series and was a lucky break for the Warriors. It probably was and maybe CP3's presence in game 7 would have made sure the Rockets didn't completely implode in the second half. CP3 gave that team a lot of toughness and "clutchenss" in games 4 and 5.

The Dubs were missing Iggy since game 3, but people don't give as much importance to him as CP3 because the Dubs have 4 stars larger than Iggy while CP3 is the second best player for the Rockets and probably their best player in the clutch given Harden's troubles as a closer. So, it is fair to say that if both played, advantage goes to the Rockets in game 7. But, thats only correct for game 7. If both played throughout the series, I totally agree with Kerr that the Warriors win game 4 and/or 5. Both were close games with CP3 playing decent for the Rockets and Iggy would have made enough of a difference in the 4th quarter to win it for the Dubs. The series would probably have wrapped up in 5 or 6 rendering game 7 irrelevant. I would like to sympathize with CP3 and Rockets for that injury, but you almost could see it coming from a mile.

I don't want to blame CP3 for being injury prone, but he just is. I do blame Harden and Mike D'Antoni for sure. Harden did no favors to CP3 by disappearing in most of the 4th quarters. CP3 had to carry a lot of the load in the second half of that game 5 when he pulled up lame and got injured. Of course, D'Dantoni still doesn't play his bench, thus killing both his superstars. So, not sure how much tears we can shed for the Rockets and this injury. We can all however shed collective tears for all of us NBA fans since these injuries reduced the series to a bunch of "what ifs." It was great fun, but the injuries made it a different series for sure. It was a cruel joke by the Basketball gods on both us and CP3. Rockets and CP3 made life difficult for the Dubs while it lasted, but the Dubs looked like they were always going to win the series anyways.

Dubs struggled in two consecutive games - 4 & 5, in crunch time to get baskets. The Rockets' defensive strategy had a lot to do with that. The Dubs defense was good too, but the offense betrayed them at times. It was not humming the entire series, but they especially looked confused in the closing minutes. As great as the Dubs' big 4 are, I started trusting the Rockets' Big 2 and even Eric Gordon more than the Warriors studs if you absolutely had to get a basket or two in the last minute of a game. Their is a simplicity, clarity, and focus to the Rockets' offense. Isolate Harden or Chris Paul or Eric Gordon, let them go to work, and live with their decision - shoot a 3, drive, or kick it out to one of the other shooters. It may be ugly and boring, but is not complex or confusing. And it worked just enough in that series to help them get to 7 games.

I don't like cliches, but the Dubs offense on the other hand did seem to lack an identity, at least in that series against that D. They almost have a problem of excess. They have 4 of the top 15 players in the league and are often torn between 3 ways to run their offense. They can rely on their basic ball movement and player movement offense, or iso Durant and let him go 1-on-1, or have Curry shoot or dribble-drive. There is no one thing they can hang their hat on and that sometimes causes some identity issues at the end of games. Rockets seemed to make them pick the least preferable of these options all series long. They defended the 3-point line and let Durant ISO to his heart's content. The Dubs had an issue with that as it took others out of the offense. Finally, Kerr had to coach and was able to unleash the Splash brothers just enough in games 6 and 7 to to earn a hard-fought victory. The conference finals were both great and now, lets see if the Finals can measure up to it when it comes to quality and competition.