Ceilin

Now that the Linsanity train is barging ahead at full speed, the real questions are about where this train is headed and how fast will it get there. What is Lin's ceiling? Will Linsanity ever end? If so, when? All fascinating questions. I am enjoying Linsanity and want him to succeed big, but I am also realistic. The guy is averaging 20+ points and 10+ assists in this stretch of 15 days. That's straight-up Steve Nash digits. I would call those MVP numbers and hall of fame lock if only he keeps it up for 15 more years! But that's not going to be easy for Linsanity. As much as he looks like Nash in that offense and pick-and-roll, he is far away from Nashty. Nash is a way better ball handler with much better court vision and shooting. Lin might be a slightly better defender and may be a better finisher around the rim because of his body type, but he is not close to becoming a Nash overall. It's almost unfair to compare the 2 at this point, though Lin's numbers over the last 15 days definitely push us towards that comparison. He can be a poor-man's Steve Nash if he keeps it up and that's a compliment.

Lin is also averaging more than 6 turnovers a game and that's the result of his suspect ball-handling. This is exactly why his career thus far has taken the route it has. Jason Terry spoke yesterday about how anybody who plays 45 minutes and gets 20 shots is going to put up some numbers. Well, it's not that simple and it sounds disrespectful of Lin - you need to be good and prove yourself a little bit before they give you 20 shots, but still Terry has a point. There are several guards buried on NBA benches that are probably quicker and more athletic than Lin and may even score 20 every night if given a chance. They may not be able to pass quite like Lin that makes him a little special, but they are at the end of the bench primarily because they will also turn the ball over 6 times a game - just like Lin. That's not acceptable nightly in the NBA. I am sure these were the concerns that kept Lin on the bench until a unique set of circumstances forced him on to the floor. Credit Lin for making the best of this opportunity. Winning solves a lot of problems including 6 turnovers per game and that's his biggest ally these days.

If you want a specific answer for when will Linsanity end, I would say it will slow down significantly if and when the Knicks go on a 5 game losing streak and if Lin is still averaging 6 turnovers over that stretch. That won't work well. Just to give you a reference, the Warrior fans are often upset with Stephen Curry for some careless turnovers and he averages about 3 per game. Lin is almost twice as bad. This is also why I wouldn't be too critical of the Warriors for letting him go, though they desperately tried to get him back after releasing him. They do owe us an explanation for drafting Charles Jenkins in the second round of last year's draft and keeping him over Lin. Of course nobody would have released him if they knew he could do all this, but you can't blame the Warriors entirely because they have Monta Ellis and Stephen Curry and Lin would have never got this opportunity with them. Even with Linsanity at it's peak, you have to say Curry is a better ball-handler and a more reliable shooter than Lin. This won't make sense now for a lot of fans, but it will when Lin cools off a little.

Lin is currently in one of those dream runs with his shooting and scoring which will eventually slow down. His vision and assists will probably stay, but one of my basketball savvy friends made a great point. Right now Linsanity is not just living a personal dream, but is also energizing the entire city of New York including his teammates. They are all enjoying this run and attention and who doesn't want to ball in front of Kevin Costner and Mark Zuckerberg? But once the hype dies down, his teammates won't cut as hard. They won't run and jump so well on fast-breaks and this could slow Linsanity. His assists numbers might go down too but the real danger is, his turnovers might stay right where they are or even get worse as teams throw better defenders on him. This is the short-term ceiling and challenge for Lin. If the Knicks keep doing well this year, Linsanity may very well take us all the way through this season. We may have to wait until next year for this to settle down. Or, it will slow down in a hurry if the Knicks go on a 0-5 stretch. In either case, it has been a lot of fun and the NBA has been a huge beneficiary here.

Long term, he can improve his shooting and ball-handling and sky could be the limit for this kid if he works hard. He has a shot at being a starting guard in this league as long as there are other number 1 options on the team. In the worst-case, he will be a great, change of pace guard off the bench who can impact games in a major way. Bill Simmons calls that role for Lin, J.J.Barea 2.0. Lin is still young and when he signs a decent contract, he will be able to afford the best trainers and coaches and will definitely get better. After all, even Nash was not born with all his skills. He has worked like a maniac to acquire them. If Lin has shown us anything over the last 15 days, it's definitely that he is hard-working, smart, tough, humble and has incredible heart. These are priceless intangibles that will serve him well in the tough, competitive world of the NBA. Lin will make something out of Linsanity. I wish him well and things will be fine as long as we don't expect him to be a career 20-10 guy winning 8 out of every 10 starts. Whether he gets there or not, his journey so far has been absolutely fascinating and fun. I am sure commish Stern is smiling on his way to the bank everyday the last 2 weeks.