The "Lakers in 6" syndrome

Everybody including our President seems to be suffering from the "Lakers in 6" syndrome. It just feels like it makes perfect sense to pick the Lakers in this series. But didn't most people feel the same way last year around this time? Nobody thought the Celtics really had a shot until they went up 3-1. The Lakers definitely have the most talent of any team in the league. But they are missing something and thats why they are so inconsistent and they couldn't cash it in last year. And that thing they are missing is called toughness. Some guys and teams are tough and the Lakers showed us last year they are not. The usual suspects on that front are Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom, though I think Pau gets a little bit of bad rap. If Lamar Odom shows up consistently, the President (and others) might be proven right. But if he doesn't, this series will become more interesting. ESPN would have us believe that it depends on what candy he eats on game day. By the way, can somebody give me a legitimate competition for ESPN on TV? These guys are getting out of control, but thats a topic for another day.

The Magic had all kinds of match-up edge over the Cavs. The Cavs had no answer for Hedo, Lewis or Howard. But thats not all on the Cavs. It's part Cavs and part Magic. The Magic are a unconventional team and they can pose problems for a lot of teams. They shoot a lot of threes and almost prefer playing outside-in on most days. Most of their match-up edge comes from 2 of their best players - Hedo and Lewis, playing like guards and being so versatile at 6-10. It's not easy for any team to defend one such 6-10 guy, let alone two. Plus Dwight Howard showed us what kind of a beast he can be in the paint. Of course the fact that the Cavs were completely conventional in the way they are put together didn't help them against the Magic whatsoever. All of Cavs versatility and athleticism is bottled up in one guy wearing number 23. The rest of the team is very typical. The guards are short and can shoot the three. The big guys are slow and old. If a Cavs big guy can score, he can't defend. If he can defend and rebound, he can't score. A predictable team with an exceptional superstar and the Magic were the worst team for them to match-up against.

The Lakers are a VERY different team from the Cavs and hence the match-up equations will be VERY different. The Lakers are loaded and thats because they are big, they are deep and they are versatile. Which means they should be able to deal with the Superman a lot better than the Cavs. They got big, talented dudes in Bynum and Gasol. Of course, they can't stop Howard, but they have the size to bother him, plus, Gasol can make him work at the other end. Given Howard's aggressiveness and tendency to pick up fouls, that is huge. Between defending Gasol and protecting the basket against Kobe, this guy might foul out every other game. He fouled out of quite a few games even against the Cavs. It's very important for the Magic that he stays on the floor. As for Hedo and Lewis, Lakers are one of the few teams in the league with a versatile 6-10 guy of their own in Odom. Again, I am not sure if Odom can stop either of those guys, but can definitely make them work at the other end and defend one of them better than the Cavs could ever defend either of those guys. Lakers also have Trevor Ariza, an athletic 6-8 guy who can defend.

That brings us to Kobe. Mickael Pietrus is going to bother him and make him work. He is not quite in the Shane Battier category of defenders, but it won't be a walk in the park for Kobe. Kobe will have to work harder than he did against the Nuggets and carry his team for stretches. This is a very interesting series for Kobe. His legacy is at stake here. He is one of the few generational guys who has a shot at being considered the GOAT - greatest of all time. But he has already lost 2 finals after winning 3 in his career. He has also not won without Shaq. He is surrounded by a lot of talent and it's hard to explain why he lost last year. Given all this, he just cannot afford to lose again this year. That would make him a goat instead of a GOAT. You cannot lose back-to-back finals without entering the Buffalo Bills territory. A loss in this Finals can take him further away from MJ and closer to Karl Malone. Plus he may have to listen to another offensive rap from Shaq, who ironically has played for both teams in this Finals.

Actually the Magic are one of the few lucky teams who have managed to land 2 other-worldly centers in a short span of 15 years. Amazing, considering the Suns have been looking for one the last 45 years. Shaq also casts his shadow over the Cavs. They are now left to wonder if they would have been better off if they had pulled the trigger on that Shaq trade with the Suns. Could he have helped neutralize Howard just a little bit? It's hard to believe now that the Cavs refused to give up Wally Szczerbiak (and his expiring contract) for him. That trade may come back this off-season, though the Suns might as well hold onto Shaq's expiring contract. The Cavs should also take a close look at Tyson Chandler. Not a great addition, but he would at least be a little athletic and can get there in time to foul DHoward. The Cavs bigs couldn't even grab him or foul him before he dunked. The Lakers are well-equipped to do some of these things better. But the Magic won't be overwhelmed by them and they swept the Lakers in the regular season. So Lakers better be ready for them - at least for 7 games, which is what I think it's going to take them to win this thing. Of course, as always, I want the Lakers to lose in 4, but I see them winning in 7.