Sunday, June 24, 2007

Marion on the move - why?

For a team thats this close to a championship and not particularly that old, the Phoenix Suns are surprisingly at the corss-roads. It's mostly due to their intention to reduce payroll. They are staring at a significant luxury tax and trading Shawn Marion seems to be the solution as far as the payroll goes. The problem is, that sets them back big-time. I am not sure if the Suns and some of their fans realize it. Marion is a very versatile player who does a lot of things on both ends of the floor and is generally under-rated as a star. His biggest problem is that he can't create his own shot and hence is not a superstar, but he still does a tonne of crap for this team that goes unappreciated sometimes. He will be tough to lose for any team, but he is especially critical for this Suns team for two reasons. People understand how important Nash is to the fast-break offense, but Marion might be the second most important guy for the run and gun. Secondly, he compensates for a lot of their defensive deficiencies and the Suns sure have a lot of them!

I am not going to tell Robert Sarver how to spend his hundreds of millions and how to run his business. The Suns and Sarver are free to run their business any way they want and they can cut cost and even build for the future. But lets be sure about one thing. Lets not kid ourselves that any of these rumored Marion trades will make the Suns better next year. Excluding the trades involving hall-of-famers Garnett or Kobe, the other rumored Marion trades will all set the Suns back. You are not getting better with Theo Ratliff, Delonte West and the fifth pick. You are not getting better with Antawn Jamison. You lose Marion now, you drop behind the Spurs and the Mavs in the West. I read they are even considering a Diaw-Amare front-line. No offense to Diaw - I actually love him as much as the next guy, but he can't even carry Marion's jock in this offense or defense. So this is purely a business decision and let the front-office not kid itself and us the fans by trying to explain it any other way.

The exception of course is if you can get a Garnett or Kobe and you are giving up Marion. Then obviously you are upgrading and that'll work. What I am saying is, in this case, you can tell who's getting the better end of the trade just based on how the trade is called. If Marion is traded for Garnett, it'll be called the "Garnett trade" and not a Marion trade. The Suns get better with those trades, but the trades like the rumored one with the Celtics will be called a "Marion trade" and those will not work for the Suns in the short term. Thats the biggest problem for the Suns. They need to think short-term for 2 reasons. One, they are real real close to the Spurs. Secondly, Nash is 33 and cannot play at this break-neck speed for more than a year or 2, may be 3. So this salary issue is really coming up at the wrong time for the Suns. You could potentially end up with a better player than Marion with the Celtics 5-Th pick, but where will Nash be when that kid hits his peak potential?

GM Steve Kerr has to handle all this. And what complicates matters even more is stars like Kobe and Garnett are on the block and they both say they want to play for the Sun. Not surprising because the Suns are a true contender, they play a fun style and they have Steve Nash. I don't think the Lakers will trade Kobe in-conference and definitely not in-division to the Suns, but Garnett can still happen. Apparently the Suns want to trade Marion and some other pieces for him but the Wolves want Amare. I don't think they should trade Amare for KG. He is essentially the same player, but 7 years younger. But I would give it a close look though. KG is at his peak and pairing him with Nash and Marion will give the Suns a great shot the next 2 years. He is way better than Amare defensively and has no ego. He will fit perfectly in this team since he is athletic enough to play this style. Losing Amare will be bad for the future, but the question is, does this trade get you closer to a ring in 08 or 09? I am tempted to say "yes".

Of course pairing KG with Amare would just be beyond awesome. I still think the Suns can make it happen. May be make it takes a three-way with Boston and moving Marion there since the Wolves don't want him. But will Sarver be willing to spend more if we get KG (or Kobe) and get a real shot at a championship? I think he should because if you make it to the finals and win a championship, your revenue jumps up too. Also if you get a player like Kobe, you make a lot of merchandise money too with his jersey etc. So Sarver should totally roll the dice if they have a shot at KG or Kobe. Interesting times for Kerr. He needs to cut salary, lose Marion and get better all at the same time while a couple of hall-of-famers are saying they would like to play for the Suns. He needs to manage all of this very tactfully. Otherwise the Fans will rip him and Sarver to shreds in about 8 months time. This is a true trial by fire for the rookie GM.

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