Sunday, April 29, 2007

Bedlam in Oak-town - NBA playoff notes - 04/27/2007

What we saw in Oakland in the Warriors first playoff game in 13 years was just amazing. This game looked and sounded like the Super Bowl, World Series and the Rose Bowl all rolled into one. A committed fan-base that has been starving for playoffs for 13 years got what it wanted and then some. The fans were there way ahead of the tip-off and were loud. The arena was rocking like never before and the fans rarely sat down. I think this should have been one of the loudest first round NBA playoffs game ever. I almost wish every NBA city misses the playoffs for 13 years and then make it so that the fans are this excited for a playoff game. I mean half the NBA makes the playoffs, but still this game created such a buzz in the Bay Area just because it was 13 years in the making. People paid almost 500 bucks for $65 tickets.

As for the game itself, it started well for the Mavs as Nowitzki hit everything in the first few minutes. Josh Howard was very active as well, but the Warriors slowly got on track. Pretty soon they took a lead early in the first quarter which they never relinquished. They rode the crowd's energy to make one great play after another. Nelly's adjustment to put Andris Biedrins worked real well too. After Avery went small and then went big, Nelly went big after going small in the first 2 games. But this might have had more to do with Al Harrington's bad performance than any real match-up reason. Josh Howard kept the Mavs in the game as he was doing everything for them. But still the Warriors were rolling and they ended the first half leading by 13 and with Dirk in a bit of foul trouble with 3.

The third quarter didn't change anything for the Mavs as they still could not stop the W's and couldn't get Nowitzki untracked. By now Howard was also slowed down and the Warrior lead kept growing. Suddenly the Mavs started looking like the W's did in game 2. They got agitated and Devin Harris, Stack and Howard ended up with technicals at different points in the second half. The Warriors won easily at the end as the crowd just enjoyed every second of it. Both Howard and Nowitzki ended up with 2. Stack and Terry didn't have a good shooting night. For the W's, J-Rich was just superb. He scored 30 on 12/19 shooting. Jacko had 16-8-6 as he went at Nowitzki at both ends of the floor. Thats the other thing the W's are doing. Nelly is having smaller guys go at Nowitzki hard and exploit his defensive liabilities. It's a double whammy for the Mavs as Nowitzki is scoring lower than his season average and probably giving up way more than his season average. Baron was Boom-Dizzle as always and had 24 strong points.

So the Mavs are in a dog-fight now if they didn't realize that already. Three games in, Nowitzki is still MIA. This is what is happening with Nowitzki as some Warriors radio/TV experts have explained. He is in an unfamiliar arena in this series. Usually he is going against big guys and he is much quicker and dominates them from the perimeter. When the defense goes smaller and quicker, Dirk just posts them up. But in this series, it's like he is facing himself. He is defended by quicker guys who he can't dominate on the perimeter. He is taller than them, but then when he posts up Nelly sends 2 more quick, athletic guys at him from his back-side and he has no idea what's coming from where. So he has been turned in to a jump shooter and a passer. He has to catch and shoot or just make quick passes if the double comes. If he holds on to the ball and starts driving, the swarming D just harasses him in to turnovers. This is also where the Mavs miss Nash. With Nowitzki having all these problems, they can use a good point guard who can get the ball to him in more comfortable positions. They don't have that and he has to do all the work himself.

Essentially, it's like one Nelly team is playing another and the Nelly who knows the older team pretty well, is winning right now. But the Mavs have more talent and I think Avery has to turn conventional thinking on it's head if he wants to won this series. This may be the toughest challenge of his young coaching career and he needs to adapt. I think the Mavs have more talented shooters and Avery should unleash them. What happens if the Mavs start taking jump shots and shooting the long threes and just running-and-gunning like the Warriors or the Suns? I think they win this series. They have better shooters than the W's and they might have to play low-percentage ball to give themselves a high percentage shot at winning the series. If Nowitzki gets harassed and throws the ball out, just take the open jumper. As Will Ferrell would say "don't be shy". I understand playoffs are all about taking high-percentage shots and playing defense, but for whatever reason the Warriors are taking you out of that mode effectively. They are not giving you the high-percentage shot and you have to talent to shoot the jumpers. Just do it. Show them you can play their game and beat them at it.

The other team last year's finals, Miami is in deep trouble. They lost again as Chicago showed they are the superior team. Wade removed his shoulder sleeve and shot a lot more, but the results were not there. He shot just 12/27 for 28 points. Daddy had 23-13, but the Heat were outscored 32-20 in the fourth as the Bulls took control of this series. Nocioni's play where he got his 3-point shot blocked, only to recover and run back to block Udonis Haslem's layup at the other end was amazing. The Bulls have a bunch of freaks and the Heat can't handle them. The big 3 had good games as Gordon had 27, Hinrich 22 and Deng 24.

In New Jersey, some impressive performance by the Nets back-court as Kidd had a triple double, his 10-Th post-season triple double. And it was no cheapy either as he almost had a triple 20 with a 16-16-19 night. Those are some ridiculous numbers. He is now averaging a triple double in the series. Big game for Vinsanity as well as he had 37 on 15/23 shooting. After the horrible shooting in Toronto, he was half-man half-amazing again as he set up shop in the paint and made a lot of high-percentage shots. The bad shooting was at the other end now with Bosh and Anthony Parker having bad nights. Only T.J.Ford showed up for the Raptors with 27. The Raptors are in real danger now. They better respond.

Toronto @ New Jersey - 89-102
Chicago @ Miami - 104-96
Dallas @ Golden State - 91-109

Playoff schedule for 04/28/2007

Detroit @ Orlando - This should be "Gone Fishing" time for Orlando.

Cleveland @ Washington - The King should go up 3-0 here.

San Antonio @ Denver - Denver goes back home, but the Spurs will definitely try to wrest control of the series here.

Houston @ Utah - Utah has a great chance to tie it all up here.

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