NOff Season

I call the NFL's off-season, NOff season - No off-season. NFL has been taking up more and more of our attention during the spring and summer months the last few years and this off-season has been even more interesting and engaging. The reason being there is way more talent and big names in this free-agent class than usual. There were several people waiting with bated breadth for NFL's new year to begin on March 12-Th. There were transactions like the niner's Alex Smith trade that were informally finalized earlier, but had to be formalized officially after that day. A flurry of activity followed. We have to start with the Super Bowl contestants who are clearly moving in opposite directions. The champion Ravens dropped a lot of change on Joe Flacco. Thats the good news. But now Flacco might have to pass to himself, try to catch the pass, and play defense after the interception. They have gutted their defensive roster with Ray Lewis retiring, Ed Reed on his way out, and with Dannelle Ellerbe, Paul Kruger, and Cary Williams walking away. In addition, they traded Anquan Boldin to their Super Bowl enemy San francisco 49'ers. 

Niners were already having a good off-season because of the surprisingly high draft-picks they got in return for Alex Smith from Kansas City that added to their already rich basket of picks in the upcoming draft. Then they used a lowly 6-Th round pick from that basket to score Anquan Boldin from the Ravens. The niners need a speedster and Boldin is not one. But he is a great receiver and it's a smart pickup. They also had to match the Seahawks, who had a great season last year and have added Percy Harvin to the mix. He is a great talent, but I think they overpaid for an injury-prone receiver. The NFC West just became very interesting with 2 legitimate contenders for the ultimate prize. I am also happy for Alex Smith ending up at Kansas City with Andy Reid. I like Andy Reid as an offensive coach. For him to pursue Alex Smith is in and of itself a vote of confidence in Alex because Reid knows QBs. He has a track record of making stars out of mediocre QBs and thats good news for Alex Smith. KC is also making several other moves and they already had some talent that under-achieved last year. They could be a surprisingly decent team in 2013.

The niners are also mentioned in the Darrelle Revis trade, though Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the only serious suitor as of now. Atlanta and Denver Broncos are the other 2 teams that improved themselves a lot among the elite teams to keep up with the niners and the seahawks. The Falcons let go of Michael Turner, but signed a slightly younger Stephen Jackson out of Saint Louis. With Tony Gonzalez un-retiring, the Falcons are locked and loaded for another impressive run. The Broncos lost Elvis Dumervil, but they did add solid talent in the form of cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Wes Welker. Peyton Manning should be delighted to see Welker in the slot to go with all the other talent he has at his disposal. The patriots are playing with fire in letting him go to their rival and instead signing Danny Amendola. Danny is younger and talented, but is also injury prone. There are also reports that Brady took a pay-cut to help the Pats sign free agents like Welker and he is now disappointed that they let his friend walk. I think Bill Belichick's ego is now getting in the way of smart team-building. They have also cut Brandon Lloyd and if they don't re-sign him, their receiving corps might be real thin.

Those are some of the interesting stories of this off-season so far. The Super Bowl champion seems to be headed for a rebuilding effort and at the other end of the spectrum, so are the Oakland Raiders. They didn't have a lot of talent to dump, but they seem to be dumping whatever little they have. They have cut receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey and defensive back Michael Huff, both former first-round picks. They have also let Brandon Myers - Carson Palmer's primary safety valve, walk to NY Giants. The black hole is going to feel like a bottomless pit for a year or two. Poor Carson Plamer. He might start missing his "glory days" in Cincinnati. There are rumors that they might cut him too. Terrelle Pryor starting in the NFL might be the best argument for a NFL minor league system. There are also rumors that the Raiders might draft Geno Smith. I like Geno Smith way more than Pryor, but Palmer might have to stay to even make the Raiders remotely watchable. In any case, there are several moves to go for all the teams between now and the draft.  With Ed Reed, Charles Woodson, Osi Umenyiora, Dwight Freeney, and possibly Brian Urlacher still available in free agency, it looks like a pro-bowl roster from a few years back. So the noff season shall continue unabated.

Where has all the parity gone?

Parity. This has been one of NFL's selling point for over a decade now. Parity means every team has a shot at a great season every year. Teams go from top to bottom and bottom to top in no time and there is no stability in the NFL power structure from year to year. But surprisingly, this years conference championship games will feature 3 of the 4 teams from last year's games. This is a rarity in the NFL. In the NFC, no team has been been able to get to the championship game in back to back years since the Philadelphia Eagles in 2005. But the San Francisco 49'ers are back and ready to roll, albeit with a different quarterback this year. In the AFC, both the Patriots and the Ravens are back. That has not happened in a long time. Where did the parity go this year? I am surprised, but I am not complaining because we have 2 great games waiting for us this weekend. A re-run of championship games only adds to the intrigue and the rivalry.

The Ravens almost beat the Patriots last year - if only Lee Evans had squeezed that TD pass. But "almost" is nowhere near the promised land. They want to go further this year, but the problem is, they are on the road again and the Ravens have been a little worse this season overall than last. They didn't earn a bye week like last year and had to win a close one at Denver to get here.  But they are motivated to extend Ray Lewis's career - who he is retiring after this season, and they always seem to play well against the Patriots. Flacco doesn't inspire a lot of confidence on Sundays, unless he is playing against the Patriots in the playoffs. The Ravens need him tomorrow more than ever because Brady will get his scores one way or the other against a shaky Ravens defense. The Patriots defense is not much better, but they do stop the run and that means Flacco and the receivers better show up and chuck the ball all over the yard. I expect a tight, high-scoring game. I think the Ravens will win this one. I don't want to see Brady and Belichick in the Super Bowl again, though I wouldn't be surprised if it happens.

Just like the Patriots, it's no surprise the niners are in the championship game, though they got there behind Colin Kaepernick after benching Alex Smith for no good reason except Kaep is better. The niners brought back the same team this year - especially on defense, and their only challenge was supposed to be a tougher schedule and possible injuries. They had to face a little bit of both and the schedule especially made sure they didn't end up at the top of the NFC standings again. So they have to now go to Atlanta unlike last year when they hosted the NY Giants. The Giants showed them that a road team can win and the niners hope to do the same this year. In fact, everybody seem to expect that and the niners are a 4 point favorite on the road. Nobody seems to respect the Falcons and after the near loss last weekend against the Seahawks, they expect the falcons to crash and burn against a slightly better opponent. As good as Russell Wilson was, Kaep is a better physical talent though not as poised and mature as Wilson - no young QB has ever been that poised. But Keep's stock is high right now and that combined with the niners defense gives them the edge.

I expect a close game here as well. As good as the niners defense is and even if they stop the run, which they probably will, Matt Ryan and those talented receivers will not go away without making some noise. Kaep has to stay on top of his game and not not get flustered or intimidated. It will be a test, but he has shown he is capable of passing such tests. The real problem for Atlanta is that they are too happy just to be here. They feel like a huge monkey was removed off of their shoulders with that playoff win last weekend. The niners are way more focussed and motivated to do bigger and better things. If Kaep plays a good game, the niners should win this one. I pick the niners to win and the underdog Ravens to show Vegas that the 7.5 point spread is uncalled for. A Har-bowl would be great for the media except for the Harbaughs themselves. Their parents would obviously be conflicted and confused, but I am sure Jim Harbaugh would hate all the attention. I don't know much about John Harbaugh. He looks a little more normal and less psycho than Jim, but it will be tough on him too. I say bring on the Har-Bowl. I want it and expect it. It's both my preference and prognostication.