NBA is living large

The Finals kicked off yesterday in style. What was supposed to be a boring, one-sided matchup turned into one of the craziest overtime thriller in recent memory. Warriors won, matching most people's expectations including mine, but the game went nothing like I had expected. My pick was and still is Dubs in 5, maybe 6 if they sleep walk through the series, but the way LeBron showed up and hooped yesterday, you almost have to expect a 6 or 7 game series. He dropped a super efficient 51 and made one of the best defenses in the league look absolutely helpless and clueless. Andre Iguodala was not playing, but the defense can't be this soft without him. Like somebody tweeted yesterday, if he makes so much of a difference to this loaded team, we are either over-estimating the big-4 or underestimating Iggy. Good point! I think we are under-estimating Iggy. Plus, LeBron was on fire yesterday. Even Iggy might not have made much of a difference.

Durant spent a lot of time defending LeBron and was largely ineffective. The Dubs seemed to want to fight through screens and stick with the primary defender on LeBron when he tried to switch Curry on to him. This is different from the Houston series and Harden where you just can't give anybody any daylight because of the conscience-free three point shooting. You can afford to switch back on LeBron and give some opening to the other Cavs. I felt like they did that a lot more in the first half, but Durant didn't fight through the screens and gave up easy in the second. Durant is so talented that he ended up with decent numbers at the end, but he played a mediocre game at best. Aside from the zero-impact defense on LeBron, he was also the guy who was pushed aside by J.R.Smth of all people on that rebound on the missed free throw at the end. Durant can't let that happen. He was abused on the boards in game 7 against the Rockets as well. Anyways, Curry was a lot better and Dubs won with a B+ to A- performance. They were not horrible, but they can be better.

The story of the game was really LeBron. He was just amazing and his legend is growing with every game in these playoffs. At age 33, he is doing more to embellish his hall of fame resume than he did at age 28 or 29 when his legs were a lot younger and his resume a lot lighter. He has carried these under-staffed Cavs to the Finals and in game 1, almost got them a 1-0 series lead. At the end of the day he couldn't and the story became the reversed foul call, missed George Hill free throw, and JR's stupidity. These plays have been rehashed non-stop for the last 24 hours and I will spare you the details, but my take in a nutshell is as follows. They got the call reversal right. You can question the motive for the review, but the result of the review was correct as confirmed by the league today as well. The missed FT happens. Durant actually missed 3 of his first 4 FTs in game 7 of WCF. Pressure and stress spares no one and Hill became the latest victim. J.R.Smith is just as much a strength as a liability and I am not surprised he lost track of the score. Also, who knows if JR's put-back or even a hypothetical LeBron James shot goes in if thats how things played out.

At the end of the day, JR Smith became the goat and saved both Hill ad Durant from some embarrassing questions. The Dubs won in OT, but they need to do something about the LeBron James problem, I can't wait for game 2 to see what both sides do - Dubs from a defensive strategy perspective and Cavs from just the mental perspective of recovering from that rough ending in game 1. It's been an interesting playoffs for the Golden State Warriors. They were never threatened in the playoffs last year, but they just came out of a 7-game fist-fight against the Rockets who gave them all they can handle and then some. Chris Paul stole both game 4 and 5 to put the Dubs in a major hole. He then got hurt and many people are convinced that this changed the series and was a lucky break for the Warriors. It probably was and maybe CP3's presence in game 7 would have made sure the Rockets didn't completely implode in the second half. CP3 gave that team a lot of toughness and "clutchenss" in games 4 and 5.

The Dubs were missing Iggy since game 3, but people don't give as much importance to him as CP3 because the Dubs have 4 stars larger than Iggy while CP3 is the second best player for the Rockets and probably their best player in the clutch given Harden's troubles as a closer. So, it is fair to say that if both played, advantage goes to the Rockets in game 7. But, thats only correct for game 7. If both played throughout the series, I totally agree with Kerr that the Warriors win game 4 and/or 5. Both were close games with CP3 playing decent for the Rockets and Iggy would have made enough of a difference in the 4th quarter to win it for the Dubs. The series would probably have wrapped up in 5 or 6 rendering game 7 irrelevant. I would like to sympathize with CP3 and Rockets for that injury, but you almost could see it coming from a mile.

I don't want to blame CP3 for being injury prone, but he just is. I do blame Harden and Mike D'Antoni for sure. Harden did no favors to CP3 by disappearing in most of the 4th quarters. CP3 had to carry a lot of the load in the second half of that game 5 when he pulled up lame and got injured. Of course, D'Dantoni still doesn't play his bench, thus killing both his superstars. So, not sure how much tears we can shed for the Rockets and this injury. We can all however shed collective tears for all of us NBA fans since these injuries reduced the series to a bunch of "what ifs." It was great fun, but the injuries made it a different series for sure. It was a cruel joke by the Basketball gods on both us and CP3. Rockets and CP3 made life difficult for the Dubs while it lasted, but the Dubs looked like they were always going to win the series anyways.

Dubs struggled in two consecutive games - 4 & 5, in crunch time to get baskets. The Rockets' defensive strategy had a lot to do with that. The Dubs defense was good too, but the offense betrayed them at times. It was not humming the entire series, but they especially looked confused in the closing minutes. As great as the Dubs' big 4 are, I started trusting the Rockets' Big 2 and even Eric Gordon more than the Warriors studs if you absolutely had to get a basket or two in the last minute of a game. Their is a simplicity, clarity, and focus to the Rockets' offense. Isolate Harden or Chris Paul or Eric Gordon, let them go to work, and live with their decision - shoot a 3, drive, or kick it out to one of the other shooters. It may be ugly and boring, but is not complex or confusing. And it worked just enough in that series to help them get to 7 games.

I don't like cliches, but the Dubs offense on the other hand did seem to lack an identity, at least in that series against that D. They almost have a problem of excess. They have 4 of the top 15 players in the league and are often torn between 3 ways to run their offense. They can rely on their basic ball movement and player movement offense, or iso Durant and let him go 1-on-1, or have Curry shoot or dribble-drive. There is no one thing they can hang their hat on and that sometimes causes some identity issues at the end of games. Rockets seemed to make them pick the least preferable of these options all series long. They defended the 3-point line and let Durant ISO to his heart's content. The Dubs had an issue with that as it took others out of the offense. Finally, Kerr had to coach and was able to unleash the Splash brothers just enough in games 6 and 7 to to earn a hard-fought victory. The conference finals were both great and now, lets see if the Finals can measure up to it when it comes to quality and competition.

First Four

And then there were 4. NBA playoffs are fun, but it's probably the most predictable of the 3 major leagues. NFL is all about parity - except for the Patriots in the AFC. You can't usually guess who is going to be a true contender from year to year. MLB is fairly predictable with respect to which teams can and will be good, but once in the playoffs, pitching is going to decide everything and you are at the mercy of those starting pitchers on both sides. That introduces enough variance. NBA with it's 7-game playoff series after a 82-game regular season is the most consistent and predictable. We had penciled in the Warriors and the Cavs to make the conference finals on day 1 - actually even the NBA finals. We expected the Celtics to get to the final-4, but then downgraded them when Gordon Hayward got hurt, upgraded them when the Kyrie-led Celtics kept winning, and downgraded them again when Kyrie got hurt. Celtics made it this far anyways. The Rockets have looked ready for this round since the beginning of the season once they showed us Paul and Harden can ball together and Kwahi decided he is not interested in balling at all this season for the Spurs.

Thus we got our conference finalists after a fun season and a solid playoff through the first 2 rounds.  No real upsets or shockers so far. I guess the Cavs technically upset the Raptors, but who really thought the Raptors were going to beat LeBron James. I thought the Raptors will drag this to 6 or 7, but LeBron is so far into their collective heads that they got swept. Raptors have a real problem if Skip Bayless says they will get swept in his usual, stupid fashion to maximize shock-value and the Raps go out and make Skip Bayless right. He rarely is. To be fair to the Raptors, LeBron hit some crazy game-winners and became more confident and unstoppable as the series went along. Nonetheless they had to change something after this debacle. The easiest move was to fire the coach and they did that. They might have fired the eventual Coach of the Year, but Dwane Casey had to go. He had a good 7-year run in the regular season, but the playoff success eluded him. Hope he gets another shot somewhere else. The Celtics will start against the Cavs tomorrow in Boston instead of the Raps hosting the ECF game 1. Celts dispatched the talented and inexperienced 76'ers in 5 games.

The way LeBron is playing right now, it's just impossible to stop him or pick against him. I expect the Celts and President Stevens to make this a long, interesting series, but the King survives in 6 games for a date in his 8th straight NBA finals. The Cavs are not that good a team, but LeBron makes them great! After 2 rounds of playoffs and multiple lineups, they have found a combination that plays well and are actually very effective the last few games. Only thing better than LeBron is LeBron with some help and he might have that in Korver, Love, and others. Celtics better show up with all their focus and energy if they want to stop the King. The story of this season though has been the Rockets-V-Warriors that we have all been waiting for, We finally get it in the WCF. The Rockets have the better record and home court. They are 50-5 when CP3, Harden, and Clint Capela have all played. That's just amazing! This coupled with the fact that the Dubs have looked less than formidable during stretches of this season makes this a fascinating series. The Warriors do not look vulnerable anymore after the first 2 rounds of the playoffs, but this is expected to be a challenging series anyways.

This may be the toughest series yet for the Dubs during the Kerr era and the world will be watching. They did lose to the Cavs in the Finals in 2016 and had a brutal 7-game WCF against Durant and the OKC Thunder. They would have lost that game 7 without a magical 41-point performance from Klay. With all that said, they did go into both those series as the prohibitive favorites whereas this Rockets series has much more intrigue going in with a confident Rockets team thinking they can beat the Dubs. The conventional wisdom even during the last couple of years was that the Rockets have a punchers chance because they jack up so many threes and a hot day at the office for them can beat anybody. That combined with Capela's development and defense to go with CP3's hot playoff run the last 2 weeks would be my concern if I were a Dubs fan. Also, the Warriors don't have the 3-point depth of yesteryears. They have the big-3 and their top of the World marksmanship from distance, but the depth is missing. Barbosa, Speights, and Clark are not walking through that door anymore. They have quality over quantity and believe it or not, their depth is their 5 centers, not wing shooters.

Contrary to what most fans probably assume, Rockets are not a fast-paced team that Coach D'Antoni is known for and the Warriors are not a three-point shooting juggernaut. The Rockets are actually one of the slowest teams in the league, but they do jack up more threes than anybody else with more than 50% of their shots coming from distance. The Dubs on the other hand have dropped down the three point attempts list this season, but like to play fast-paced. They actually shoot just 2 less 3s per game this season compared to 2015, but the Rockets shoot 12 more 3s per game now than they did in 2015! Thats amazing and has become a trend across the league pushing the Dubs from the most 3-point attempting team in 2015 to 16th most in the league this year. All of this makes this series a very interesting clash of styles given the Warriors' ball-movement offense and the Rockets' isolation based offense. Game 1 is going to be crucial in this one more than your average series. I agree with Chuck that it's important for the Rockets to win and gain more confidence. Dubs can afford to lose on the road, but us fans will learn a lot about this series on Monday either way.

Whats the net-net of it all? I expect a focussed, sharp, playoff-Warriors to show up on both ends of the floor. Thats still the best show and the most formidable force in the NBA. Their defense survives and expect them to take this series in 6.

NBA's super problem

NBA free agency is winding down after a nice run. There were some big moves as expected and it was an exciting couple of weeks. Even before the free agency kicked off, the Chris Paul trade to the Clippers and the Phil Jackson firing by the Knicks set the stage for a fun off-season stretch. Even as CP3 left, Blake Griffin decided to stay in LA and canceled a previously scheduled meeting with the Phoenix Suns. I was excited a bit for that meeting, but all things considered, I have to say the Suns dodged a bullet. Blake is too much of a injury risk to invest that kind of money. The unexpected Paul George trade to the Thunder was a nice wrinkle as even the 24X7 NBA twitter machine had no clue about that one. At the end of all of this, the best story of the off-season might have been Kevin Durant taking almost 10 mill less than market this year.

The Warriors were constantly on the off-season news though they didn't have to make any big changes. Just keeping their team together as expected was a big and expensive activity. They super-maxed Curry and brought back Livingston and David West. The guy who proved challenging was Andre Iguodala. He negotiated his way to what I would say is a very generous contract at his age. This meant KD ended up taking a lot less than market to help the team out. The Warriors could have paid 5 mill a year more than what they paid KD and gotten Paul Millsap who can do about half the things on the court that Durant can! While other guys like Millsap were getting overpaid, KD gave money back. Real nice of Durant and the Warrior machine showed once again that it's firing on all cylinders. They didn't stop there as they signed Nick Young and Omri Caspi and also brought back Zaza Pachulia.

Dubs have reloaded and only JaVale McGee is not in the fold yet among the players they realistically want back. They apparently went way over budget and may even be better than last year. Don't forget the 3.5 mill they paid to get the second round pick Jordan Bell in the draft though they didn't have a pick this year. It reminded me of the Suns during the Nash golden era when they were trading away all their draft picks to save a mill here or there. That right there might be the difference between true championship teams and the wannabes. Back then, I didn't realize how stupid the Suns were because we were all entranced by the Nash-Amare-Marion brilliance and thought we don't need no damn rookies! But rookies are cheap and the Warriors know how to use them right. The Dubs are definitely not holding back their wallet and if you are a Dubs fan, you should be very happy about how they run their team.

Gordon Hayward was one of the most prized possession this off-season and his move to Boston was not a major surprise. He did the free agency dance, but ended up where he has been rumored to be going for 2 years now. A big blow to the small market Utah team. LeBron James maybe the only true super star left in a small market team now and if the rumors are true about him wanting to leave Cleveland next year and goto the Lakers with Paul George and others, the league in general and Cleveland in particular will have a tough challenge in their hands. LeBron not actively recruiting free agents this year to the Cavs only strengthens the rumors. Cleveland has spent a lot of money and mortgaged a lot of their future to keep the King's court going. If he bails, they maybe in a worse situation now than in 2010 when he first left town, though the championship he won last year softens the blow for the fans.

NBA has a decent economic system. I rank their system way above the MLB's when it comes to competitive balance between big and small market teams. Of course, NFL is the best system in that regard with their hard salary cap etc., but you could argue NFL is a modern-day slavery involving millionaire athletes. NBA strikes the right balance between player prosperity, flexibility for the teams, and competitive balance. But, despite their best efforts, the teams are having issues retaining their stars. The NBA system always enabled teams to overpay for their own players via Bird rights etc. They expanded this even more in the last collective bargaining agreement, but the players are still leaving their teams to go wherever they want.

The players do seem to be leaving for the right reasons, but the small-market teams are hurting in the process. They seem to be leaving mostly to win and to play with other stars they like. LeBron started this trend, but everybody is trying to create their own super teams now. So, Harden recruits Chris Paul and CP3 joins him forfeiting a more lucrative contract with the Clips. Though the rumor is, Clips didn't want to pay CP3 that much and he decided that in that case, he will just go to Houston. Hayward gave up extra years and money too when he decided to move to Boston. I think 2 things are happening here. One, the off-court earnings for superstars like Durant are so high that they don't mind giving up some shekels for a ring and to play with friendly superstars. You would think this may actually be good news for small market teams.

While the big market teams definitely have more money, cachet, and sex appeal to bring multiple superstars together, the fact the stars are chasing winning and friends more than money should mean the market size matters less. If the small market team and their incumbent superstar play their cards well, they should be able to attract other stars to town to build a winning roster. They may have to go over the luxury tax threshold and thats a challenge for smaller markets, but it's doable. If this doesn't ever work in their favor and if smaller market teams are perennially hurting, I am sure the NBA will bring an even bigger hammer to the next collective bargaining negotiation and make sure the luxury tax penalties are even more severe and the players have to give up even more to leave their home markets to go to greener pastures. I trust the NBA process and they will figure this out.

Secondly, there may be a temporary phenomenon at work currently with the players. The sudden 35% jump in salary cap last year has thrown the salaries out of whack. This generation of stars were hoping to score a max contract in the range of 18 to 20 million a year until last season. Suddenly, their choices now are either 32 mill or 38 mill a year depending on where they want to play and I think even the players themselves are confused and overwhelmed by it. They think it's great to make 32 mill and win with a star teammate of their choice rather than mortgaging everything for a 38 mill contract. It's all huge money anyways. So, who cares if it's 5 or 6 million less! This might change with the new crop of stars starting with the Lonzo Ball era as these kids may expect to make those kinds of money and they may be less willing to give that up. Their reference point may be different. Thats just my theory. Lets see if I am right in a couple of years.

In short, the players seem to have all the leverage, especially the stars. They pick the city, the teammates, the contract, and the options on when to become a free agent again. In some ways, the teams have themselves to blame. They wanted shorter contracts and more flexibility. But this also means the players have more flexibility as well. It feels like every star is a free agent every other year. It's fun for the larger NBA fan base in the off-season, but stressful for the GMs and the home town fans who are worried about their stars. On top of that, this season, it's very clear that the Warriors have sent every team into a frenzy. Every team is looking to build a super team to challenge them and the stars are obliging.

It almost feels like fantasy basketball as teams like Houston go get CP3 and are still in the market for Carmelo. And they have committed almost 220 mill to Harden. Wonder how much more he can make if he plays defense too! Cavs want another piece, Boston wanted a couple of pieces, John Wall was trying to get Paul George to Washington, and there are already rumors of how LeBron will join Paul George with the Lakers and get John Wall to join him too next year. John Wall coincidentally is represented by LeBron's buddies at Klucth sports and Wall is refusing to sign the big money extension with the Wizards. The league is gone crazy in a good way and the Warriors are pushing them over the edge. LeBron started the super-team trend in 2010 and it's getting worse now.

NFL has always been the envy of every other league. They have the most fans with the most attention span throughout the year and other leagues were trying to mimic them and steal their ideas. But when it comes to free agency, NBA has got it figured out. Even NFL has to be jealous of all the hype and attention the NBA free agency generates. The calendar is not even well thought out because it was not that big a deal in the past. Most big signings happen during the July 4th long weekend, which is not ideal for the media hype cycle, but the whole free agency period still generates intense buzz for 2+ weeks. As stupid as "The Decision" show was in 2010, we have to thank that for what has now become the modern free agency. Nobody will do that kind of a show anymore, but the activities of player movement and super team creation in July have become a yearly trend now.

This is all good as the NBA keeps us busy and occupied during the dog days of summer. NBA is experiencing a definite renaissance and you could attribute it to many things including a new set of talented stars and a fan-friendly style played around the league. And don't forget the health and concussion problems hurting the NFL either. But it recently struck me when I was listening to Bill Simmons talk about this that we have had couple of historic NBA records and events happen just within the last 2 years. I personally thought I will never see a team win more than 72 games a season or anybody average a triple-double in a season. The Warriors last year and Russell Westbrook this year achieved those 2 amazing feats. Those things are real fun to watch and track and no wonder NBA is on a magical run. The attention it draws during free agency and it's summer league may be the best proof of it yet. Hope the good times keep rolling for the association!

Body Blows in the NBA

One of my buddies calls basketball a deceptively dangerous sport that's more brutal on our bodies than most other sports. He is somebody who played both tackle football and basketball and I have to respect his opinion. The last couple of days in the NBA playoffs are indeed proving him right. Freak injuries to various parts of the body have taken out 3 out of the top 10 talents in the league. First, Curry slipped on a sweat spot on the floor and twisted and banged his right knee on the floor. This was in game 4 when he had just came back from an ankle issue after a 2 game break. He is now out for at least 2 weeks with a grade 1 MCL sprain. For a 12 hour period on Monday after this news came out, the Clippers suddenly looked like a legitimate contender and the biggest beneficiary of the dubs' misfortune. Warrior fans spent all day debating if the dubs can beat the Clips without Curry. The Warriors probably can't handle the Spurs or the Cavs without Curry, but they definitely had a shot against the Clippers especially with home court. Part of me was excited to see them duke it out with the Clips without Curry. Clippers can win it, but I think these dubs would drag them to 7 games. The  fans wanted the Clippers-Blazers series to go 7 games because that would give Curry more time to recover. He is probably looking at a return for game 4 or 5 in the next round if the recovery goes per plan.

But late Monday night, the Clippers' world turned upside down. They lost their leader Chris Paul to a freak injury and a broken hand when it got stuck in the opponent's jersey. Blake Griffin then followed him out with a quad injury. Bye bye season for the Clippers. Now the Dubs fans are rooting for a Clippers to win another game so the Blazers get extended to 7. It's probably going to be Warriors-Blazers in the next round. That won't be easy, but it's not the same as facing a fully-loaded Clippers team. So it looks like even when they lose Curry for a couple of weeks, the Warriors get a lucky break in the form of a suddenly depleted Clippers team. Their path to San Antonio looks much better now especially given the way they dispatched the Rockets tonight by 33 points to take that series in 5. The Blazers back-court will be a load to handle, but the dubs have to be favored in that series even without Curry. In fact, it probably gives the Warriors more time to rest Curry. Vegas agrees as the Warriors dropped behind the Spurs as a favorite right after Curry's injury. But they were bumped ahead of the Spurs again when CP3 and Blake got hurt. The expectation is, Curry will be back for the Spurs series anyways and the upcoming round got a lot easier for the dubs with the unfortunate Clipper injuries.

If you include Avery Bradley, round 1 of these playoffs has taken down 4 key players in brutal and weird injuries. This round is beginning to wind down in a hurry though. The elite teams are already resting as we speak. Cavs and Spurs swept their way out of round 1 and the dubs and Thunder wrapped it up in 5 games. With today's surprising road win for Charlotte and the sadly predictable road win for Portland, those 2 series should be wrapped up in 6 as well. That leaves the Celtics-Hawks and Pacers-Raptors series as the possible 7-game thrillers. The East has 4 playoff teams with an identical 48-34 record and not surprisingly, the Eastern match-ups have been more competitive in round 1. The Hawks and Celtics continue their series tomorrow in Boston. The Celts should win this one to force game 7, but we all know the real winner tomorrow will be the NFL. The draft is here and let's get ready to welcome the next set of millionaire celebrities into our televisions. It's going to be interesting with all the late movement at the top of the draft. We will have 2 QBs go back-to-back at the top like Winston and Mariota last year. These 2 kids will join a few infamous QB pairs like Bledsoe-Mirer, Manning-Leaf, Couch-McNabb, and Luck-RG-III. Of course the jury is still out on Winston-Mariota and hope they and the kids coming in tomorrow don't stick to this one good, one bust trend with these pairs.

There are a couple of interesting reads in the NBA that I would like to recommend. If you have some time to kill, I strongly recommend Sam Hinkie's leaked 13-page resignation letter to the Philadelphia 76'ers (http://espn.go.com/pdf/2016/0406/nba_hinkie_redact.pdf). The other article of interest is about the evolving role of point guards in the NBA (http://www.washingtonpost.com/sf/sports/wp/2016/04/15/its-a-point-guards-game/). This article is especially sweet for us Suns fans as Jerry Colangelo was instrumental in some of those successful rule changes when he was the Suns owner. And coincidentally, Steve Nash and the Suns were also the first team to show the world how to play a fun, winning brand of basketball by exploiting those rules and start a trend that has changed the game forever and for the better.

Bizarro NBA

Christmas defines the holiday season and on the sports calendar, it also signifies the unofficial start of the NBA season. People start caring about the NBA starting with the Christmas day games on network TV. Actually, given NFL's popularity these days, it's more like the NBA gets some momentary attention on Christmas day, but sports fans still don't really care about it - or anything else for that matter, until the Super Bowl is over.  It has gotten to a point where Nuggets coach George Karl actually suggested NBA should permanently open on Christmas day like they did after the lockout in 2011. That will never happen, but we did get our filling of 5 games on ESPN and ABC on Christmas day. The Lakers seemed to be energized by Steve Nash's return and won their fifth straight against a tough Knicks team but they lost again on boxing day. This team is still in a flux. There is widespread belief that they will right the ship and be there at the end, but experts are also coming around to agreeing this Lakers team may not be a contender after all and they are probably staring at a first round exit. I think the ceiling for this team might be the second round or may be the Western conference finals if they get lucky, but nothing more.

The real story in the league is LA's other team. The LA Clippers have won 15 straight and have the best record in the league. It's truly the bizarro world in the NBA this season with not only the Clippers but also the Golden State Warriors in the top 5 in the Western conference. Whats happening to this world? Actually, both these teams are for real and legit. The Warriors have a great collection of young talent in Klay Thompson, Harrison Barnes, Draymond Green, and Festus Ezeli to go with their potential All-stars in Steph Curry and David Lee. They have good chemistry, great shooting, and David Lee's activity and smarts keeps the painted area friendly and hospitable. The Clippers on the other hand have totally taken the next step from last season when they gained legitimacy with the Chris Paul trade. They lost a  lot of their depth in the trade for him, but they have built their bench back up in less than a year.  Now they have Lamar Odom, Jamal Crawford, Eric Bledsoe, Grant Hill, and Chauncey Billups with some of those guys still not even back from injuries. I don't consider them to be contenders or better than the Thunder, but they should be in the final 4 in the West, which basically means the final 5 in the entire league counting the Heat.

With Nash aging and balling with the enemy in Laker-land, Chris Paul might be my favorite player in the NBA right now. This guy has an amazing attitude and phenomenal leadership credentials to go with a superstar game and is fun to watch when he is running with those athletes he has on his roster. CP3 is the best PG in the league right now. He is always connected to Deron Williams because of their draft class, but Deron seems to be getting more recognition for being a coach-killer than for being a point guard as the Nets fired their coach Avery Johnson today after their slump in December. I was expecting the Nets to be a force this year, but it looks like the East will still be a playground for the Heat and the Bulls, once Derrick Rose is back. The other team I am wishing well is the Houston Rockets. I like both James Harden and Jeremy Lin. Harden is having a great season and Lin seems to be turning it around lately. Thats a fun team to watch and I hope to see them giving some contenders a lot of trouble in the playoffs. NBA is always fun. It would be even better if my Phoenix Suns are winning, but we will be entertained by the NBA this year anyways.

NBA Preview

NBA is almost here. It's time to get excited and ready. I thought I will try and rank all the teams in the league and predict how the season is going to play out. I am going to stick my neck out with my analysis and see how it looks at the end of the season. So I started looking through all the rosters closely and boy, there is some serious garbage in this league. It straight away became obvious why there is so much heartburn and unease over the new NBA - post LBJ syndrome. For those of you that don't know the term, LBJ syndrome is the culture of stars trying to team up with other stars in hand-picked teams. This is something LeBron started with Wade and Bosh last year and everybody else is trying to emulate. It's very clear that NBA is in real danger if this trend continues. While the lockout was more about money than competitive balance, the two are related and competitive balance currently needs some attention and almost justifies the lockout. You can see why the owners freaked out at the Chris Paul to Lakers trade just coming out of the lockout. NBA needs another super-team like the NFL needs a Brett Favre comeback. These rosters also remind me a lot of MLB and that's not a good thing. A talent skew like the MLB will just NOT work in the NBA, not that ti works for baseball.

Almost half the rosters look like garbage and the scary part is, some of these teams will be in the playoffs because NBA lets way too many teams in to the playoffs - at least the MLB is better with that, though they are hell-bent of expanding their playoff counts next season. This also reminds me why NFL is the king. Not only do they have superior parity and competitive balance, they allow only 12 teams in to the big dance and rarely does garbage get in to the playoffs. It happens once in a while, but not always. When a bad team plays another bad team, somebody has to win. So some of these garbage NBA rosters will also sport decent records at the end of this season. But trust me, I see way more Pittsburgh Pirates and Kansas City Royals type rosters in this year's NBA than in the past. The hope is, these teams can develop, grow and turnaround. But for that to happen, the LBJ syndrome cannot continue and the system should enable these teams to retain the young stars that are already on their rosters or might end up there via future drafts. Let's hope for that to happen.

The objective of this NBA season is not different from last's for most of the fans - basically keeping the dream team in Miami away from a ring. But it is going to be harder this year than last. For all the talk about how last season was a failure for the heat, the reality is, it was a roaring success for the big 3. To win the Eastern conference in year 1 after all the negative attention, chemistry issues and adversity caused by unexpected losing streaks is just amazing. What else did we all expect? If they won it all in year 1, then LeBron would have been absolutely justified in predicting 8 rings when he stupidly said "not 1, not 2 .... not 7." Even now, I am scared he is going to get close to the number because they almost got there in year 1 and are going to be much better in year 2. On the court, their chemistry is going to be much better. Plus, their experience with all the adversity last year and the booing and hatred will probably make this year 2 look like a stroll on the South Beach for those guys. Given all this, I pick the Miami Heat to win the championship this year. I don't want them to, but I am afraid they probably will. I don't see a solid threat for them, though they are not invincible by any stretch of the imagination.

The heat lost to Dallas last year. The mavericks have the look and feel of a one-hit wonder. This is because of their age and also the fact that they lost Tyson Chandler. Speaking of age, the Spurs will be good as always, but they only got older and are not a serious contender. The Celtics are also older and not sure if they can do better than last year. The age bug is also beginning to bite the Lakers. They imploded against the Mavericks last playoffs and took a step back this year when they lost Lamar Odom. Unless they pull a Dwight Howard blockbuster, they may have problems even dominating their own town given that the Clippers are now looking great with a talented, young, athletic front court chauffeured by a stud point guard. While the rest of the league would love to have one good big guy at either the center or the power forward position, the Clippers have a stud PF in Blake Griffin and seems to have lucked into an amazing athlete with a huge upside at center in DeAndre Jordan. Even the Clip-joint may not be able to screw this one up. The Clippers are good, but they need at least a season under the belt with these pieces before becoming a serious contender.

I wouldn't discount the Lakers and the Mavericks completely yet, but the teams that can really challenge the Heat this season are the OKC Thunder in the West and the Chicago Bulls in the East. The baby Bulls will be better with that deep playoff experience last season, but they still need one more offensive weapon. Too bad they didn't add significant pieces this year, though Rip Hamilton will help. The OKC on the other hand have had 2 deep playoff runs and seem to have a complete roster. This is the year for them to breakthrough. I would love it for Kevin Durant to take down LeBron in the Finals. That would be poetic justice like no poet has ever seen before. And it's not a pipe dream. Speaking of pipe dreams, it's sad to me as a Suns fan that I am nowhere near mentioning them as a contender. In fact, it's out of pure respect for Nash that they are even ranked as high as they are in most power rankings on the web. That roster has been decimated by owner Robert Sarver and I just hope they are even in the running for the playoffs. Shame on you Sarver!

Now on to my rankings in each conference.

EASTERN CONFERENCE
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1. Miami - They are my pick to win it all this year. The rich usually get richer in this league. So they got Shane Battier. But I am surprised they didn't get significantly more. They still have issues with the bigs - anybody who signs Eddy Curry have some issues, and at the point guard spot. But their experience from last year will help immensely. Somebody please stop them.

2. Chicago - They have the MVP and a good core, but they need one more reliable scorer. I didn't like the way Miami handled them last year and I don't see any improvement to put them over the heat. Rip Hamilton helps, but they need a healthy, dominant Boozer and a little bit more.

3. Boston - Jeff Green's heart illness is a big blow. This team is old and I would have loved to see them challenge the heat of today with their big 3 when they were 3 years younger. I like the Brandon Bass pickup, but the golden oldies have to handle a compressed schedule and challenge Miami at the end. Not going to be easy.

4. Knicks - Depth is a concern, but the front court talent is just undeniable. Melo, Amare and Chandler is a phenomenal lineup. They are overpaying for all 3, but they can afford to. I think this team is going to surprise a lot of people. I hate to say this, but Steve Nash will look sweet in this team.

5. Atlanta - They have always been an enigmatic team for me. I don't think they have elite talent and they have also topped off talent-wise with all the money invested in their existing pieces. But they are talented enough to be a top 4 team in the L-East. On the positive side, they can party like 1999. They have both Tracy McGrady and Jerry Stackhouse.

6. Orlando - They have taken a step back, but they still have their stud - for now. They can make some noise, but will fall short. Hedo is not giving them what he gave during his first go-around. Rashard Lewis is not worth a lot, but he and a younger Hedo made things work for them. They have to find something new now before losing Dwight Howard.

7. Philly - Jrue is true. The development of Jrue Holiday makes the sixers pretty interesting. A good PG compensates for a lot of things and this sixers team is ready to take the next step this year especially if Evan Turner turns the corner.

8. Indiana - They made the playoffs with just 37 wins last year. They may be in a position to clinch the 8-Th seed this year too. But they are slightly better this year with the pickup of David West. A healthy West and an improved Paul George can get them 37 wins this season - which is a good improvement because this is a 66 game season and not a 82 game season.

9.Milwaukee - Shaun Livingston and Mike Dunleavy make this roster interesting for completely different reasons. Shaun's injury should still be one of the worst ever and is good to see him play again. It seems like Bogut and Jennings have leveled off a little bit. If one of them steps up, they could be a playoff team.

10. Washington - I would love to be a billionaire owner of a NBA team, but I will still cry if I have to pay 20 mill a year for Rashard Lewis. Then again, I might be happy I am not doing the same to Gilbert Arenas for whom the Magic traded Lewis. 20 mill for Lewis is bad any way you look at it, but this roster gives you another reason why it's bad. A young, barren roster like this can use a leader and they have a 20 million dollar guy who is not even close to providing that on the court. Both Lewis and the Wizards will go only as far as John Wall takes them.

11. Toronto - Nothing to really get excited about. This is why the system should help teams like these retain players like Chris Bosh. This is a typical MLB type team with no light at the end of the tunnel yet.

12. Nets - The recent injury to Brook Lopez is a killer. It impacts their performance on the court and their ability to chase Dwight Howard off of it. Deron Williams is a stud. But he is going to be tired carrying these guys around. That means he might want out soon too. Also, he should be super excited to see Mehmet Okur again on his team, or not!

13. Detroit - There is nothing going on with this team right now. If you are a fan, you can pay 100 dollars for bad seats, watch mediocre NBA basketball and wonder why Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva make a combined 18 million dollars. Let me know if you have the answer after watching 33 home games because neither myself nor their GM Joe Dumars have an answer.

14. Cleveland - Last year, they showed us how important one guy can be to an entire franchise. This year, they will show us how not all number 1 picks are LeBron James. Kyrie Irving is nice, but I am not sure if a Dukie can rescue a franchise. Tough spot for the Cavaliers. At least their owner sometimes makes things interesting.

15. Charlotte - Here's another reason why David Stern's rookie age limit makes sense. If a bunch of teams like the Bobcats this year have nothing to offer except their high-priced rookie, I would rather watch a 21 year old Kemba Walker than a 19 year old Kemba Walker. Their owner, the 48 year-old MJ could walk in to their starting lineup and will probably be an upgrade to what they got.

WESTERN CONFERENCE
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1. OKC - They are the team to beat in the west. Their young, talented roster has an amazing balance and variety to it. Westbrook, Durant and Harden are ready to take it to the next level this year.

2. Dallas - The mavs never got any love from anybody and they still don't after the championship. The concern now is that they are aging and old. They are still deep and talented and I love the way they replaced Caron Butler with Lamar Odom. But they will miss Tyson Chandler and J.J.Barea. Both of them meant a lot more to the mavs than what their talent would suggest.

3. San Antonio - It seems like we have been calling them old for the last 15 years, but they still had the best record in the west last year. They did lose to an eight seed in Memphis, but that was probably the worst match-up for them. I expect them to be up there in the west again. Are they a legitimate contender? I don't think so.

4. LA Lakers - They went from adding Chris Paul to losing Lamar Odom for nothing in 2 days. They are in trouble unless they steal superman from Orlando. Metta World peace will lead a bench that lacks depth. They got Troy Murphy, which means they are searching and reaching for answers to some serious questions.

5. LA Clippers - There is so much going on with this team that people are not even talking about the addition of Caron Butler. If this guy is healthy and productive, watch out. Blake Griffin and DJ will develop faster with a PG like Chris Paul and this team will be good this year.

6. Memphis - The west is not as great as it used to be and Memphis should be very relevant in the playoff race this year even if O.J. Mayo and Tony Allen start punching each other again. Zach Randolph makes a lot of dough, but was amazing for them last year. If he stays in his shoes, this year will be no different.

7. Portland - Brandon Roy is gone. Some of their good depth has disappeared. So they are not what they used to be, but are still playoff good. It is LaMarcus Aldridge's team now and they added Jamal Crawford to the mix. I am sure Jamal will shoot them in and out of games as always.

8. Denver - They lost 3 guys to China. Wilson Chandler will be missed, but I am not so sure about J.R.smith and Kenyon Martin. Their talent and depth has to come together under George Karl to make the playoffs. I think they do.

9. Golden State - The big catch of the off-season was Kwame Brown. Not the best way to upgrade a roster, but they have some young talent in the back-court to give the faithful some hope. Mark Jackson has his work cutout with this team.

10. Houston Rockets - They have some depth. Somehow Jonny Flynn always ends up in rosters with too many PGs. The vetoed trade would have given them Pau Gason, but they have some scorers even now. They could get in the mix for the 8-Th spot.

11. Phoenix Suns - It pains my heart to put the Suns here, but they have very little outside of Steve Nash. He deserves so much respect that many ranking have the Suns ranked way higher than their roster warrants just because of him. He is great and he makes others good. But Robert Sarver has made sure even Nash can't help this roster. It's hard to get excited over the Sebastin Telfair signing the year after you let Amare walk last year. Markieff Morris is the only hope this season. Of course Vince Carter is gone. I am hoping that's some addition by subtraction.

12. Utah - Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter give hope for the future, but their present also features young talent. Out of all the rebuilding rosters that are at crossroads, Utah's has the best balance between the future and the present. Of course, that doesn't mean they will have the best future, but it does mean they may continue to win a few games today.

13. Sacramento Kings - They have a lot of young talent that they have been accumulating the last few years, but for some reason it's not all coming together - at least not yet. This should be the year things get better, but it won't. I think they need a new coach and a veteran or two to help the talent gel and grow together faster.

14. Minnesotta - This team is all about the future. Derrick Williams, Ricky Rubio and Wes Johnson gives them hope and even some excitement. And Kevin Love gives them stability and strength in the middle. Don't expect too much out of them this year, but next year might be interesting.

15. New Orleans - It's good the Commish made sure they got Eric Gordon in the CP3 trade. Otherwise, they may be scoring just 50 points a night. This roster is cheap for a new owner to buy, but will also play cheap all season.

Off Season Fun

Sometimes in sports you have days during the off-season when there is so much activity and excitement around trades, free agent signings and assorted discussions that you feel like you are having more fun than being in-season. Yesterday was one of those days as both baseball and basketball featured some big news around player movement. First, the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim signed Albert Pujols to a 10 year 254 million dollar contract. It should be tough for Pujols to stomach just a 254 million dollar contract considering his agent was angling for 300 mill at one point! But in all seriousness, it's amazing teams are still throwing that kind of money at stars. We all thought the days of 250 million dollar contracts are over in MLB since the twice disastrous A-Rod signings. But always count on a owner or a team to go above and beyond and shock you. To be fair to Pujols, if anybody can command that rage of salary in this day and age, it's probably a generational hitter like him. With that said, I don't like this signing and the Angels will regret this sooner than later.

The Angels are a big market team with deep pockets. They just signed a 20 year TV deal with Fox sports for 3 billion showing us how these big money teams work and why they even take these risks. But I still don't like this signing. Pujols is great, and he has had phenomenal numbers since his first year with the Cardinals in 2001. He spent 11 amazingly consistent seasons in St. Louis and hit .300 with 30 home runs and 100 RBIs every single year except the last one - in 2011, he had 99 RBIs and batted .299, narrowly missing the bar. But he is suspected to be a couple of years older than his reported age and he will slow down way before the 10 years runs out on this contract. He can be a DH in the AL, but he won't be worthy of 25 mill in another 5 or 6 years. Also, the problem with baseball is, you need more than a superstar or 2 to be able to win. We see more and more "teams" winning the world series rather than individuals and stars. Yankees may be the exception to that rule, but then they can afford a team of superstars each making around 20 mill.

Of course pitching is an essential ingredient too and the Angles do have that - for now. They even signed C.J.Wilson in another big money signing yesterday. But, can one 25 million dollar hitter carry your entire lineup? If he doesn't, can you go and sign another 15 or 18 million dollar hitter? The answer here is a "no" for most teams and this is the difference between the Yankees and the others in my opinion. You probably knew the Yankees pay almost 15 mill a year to Jeter, but did you know that he was their 6-Th highest paid player in 2011? A-Rod, CC, Tex, A.J and Mo pulled a bigger paycheck than him and Posada was not far behind. I doubt if Angels can do that. That's why deals like these are too risky and bad deals for most teams. It's sure to disappoint unless everything goes perfect. I expect this deal to look bad in 2 years and downright horrible in 5. As an A's fan, it is disappointing to see both the Angels and the Rangers involved in an arms race with rumors of the Mariners jumping in for Prince Fielder. The A's may have nothing to offer next year in this division, but I don't think the Angels are all set for the future either with Pujols. Lets see if my crystal ball works.

Bad deals and big market spending splurges are common in baseball, but are not foreign to the NBA either. I have always maintained that the NBA's system is way better than MLB's and may be even the NFL's, but the league still needed a protracted lockout to tweak things. One reason for that is, the NBA just does not break the bank like the NFL does. But the owners also need to be saved from their own stupidity just like in baseball. The NBA also has a new problem. I call it the LBJ syndrome. Since LeBron James engineered an exit to Miami to play with his chosen superstar teammates, everybody is beginning to do the same. Stars - whether Albert Pujols or LeBron James, always had leverage, but the NBA stars are beginning to hand-pick exactly the town and teammates and it's getting to be ridiculous. First it was the whole LeBron saga, then Melo and Amare ended up in NY. And at least some part of the lockout was about competitive balance and parity. So I thought it was funny that the first wave of news out of the lockout was all about Chris Paul and Dwight Howard ending up in LA with the Lakers. So much for NBA parity and change.

And then the trade for Chris Paul apparently happens with Lamar Odom and Pau Gasol ending up in different towns. That's when something even more bizarre happened. The commish vetoed the trade. This totally opened up a can of worms to say the least. Everybody has an opinion on this and it's going in all directions. The only reason the league could step in is because they technically own the Hornets in a strange arrangement. So the other owners all own a piece of this franchise and when they objected, the commish (over) reacted. To me, there are only 2 issues with the veto. If all the owners collectively own the Hornets, are the Hornets supposed to do whats best for the Hornets or whats best for all the owners? If the owners want to do whats best for all of them and if they think not sending CP3 to the Lakers is good for them, then do it by all means. But to me, it feels like the only way to manage this setup is to let the Hornets operate independently and do whats good for that team. Believe me, this trade was not bad at all for the Hornets. If the owners should have vetoed any trade involving the Lakers, it was the Pau Gasol one with Memphis a few years back.


This trade was fair for all the parties, In fact, I have seen many "best back-courts ever" fail miserably and the Lakers acquiring it at the cost of Gasol and a lot of size is neither here nor there. Of course, these days we all have a soft-corner for new super-teams because they can probably keep the original super-team - the hated Miami Heat away from winning it all. The Paul trade in and of itself didn't scare me all that much. But the Lakers were also just setting up to go after Dwight Howard and that would have been a scary super-team down the road. The owners were hot and bothered about the rich getting richer, but the Lakers in this case are just able to get Paul because they know he will re-sign there and hence can afford the risk of renting him in his free agent year. There's no way to prevent it when they are a storied franchise in a big market with a lot of money and Kobe Bryant. Life is always going to be unfair. I don't mind the owners trying to make it as fair as they can, but they over-reacted in this case coming out of a contentious lockout. The bigger problem here is the LBJ syndrome like I said - Dwight Howard is now saying he wants to be traded to the Nets. You can try to solve it with systemic changes, which I hope they did with the new CBA. But they can't eliminate it right away and they can't do it right here, right now when the LBJ syndrome is at it's peak. And they definitely shouldn't use their flawed arrangement with the Hornets to try and accomplish that.